The Sunday Business Post and the Sunday Independent carry some good news for those hoping that the referendum on the Fiscal Compact will be passed in Ireland.
According to the Red C Poll in the Sunday Business Post 44% of voters say they will vote “yes”, with 29% committed to a “no” vote. 26% do not know. This is going to be where the focus will be on the way the “do not knows” split closer to the election, but excluding the “Do not knows” he yes side have 60% to 40% for the no.
In the Millward Brown Lansdowne Poll in the Sunday Independent the response was 37% “Yes” to 26% “No”. That left 15% in the “Do no know” column and 21% in the “It depends” column. The “it depends” column is interesting and I hope the poll did ask further questions on it so more on that tomorrow.
When you exclude the “Do not knows” and the “it depends” you get a similar 59% Yes and 41% no.
So while the Yes camp is certainly the larger camp, any yes campaign should be wary of any complacency and of course should learn the lessons of Nice 1 and Lisbon 1 referenda.
Michael Martin also last night firmly committed Fianna Fail to supporting the Yes campaign in his Ard Fheis speech and got a round of applause showing that there does not seem to be a split in Fianna Fail on Europe.
The Sunday Business Post/Red C poll also asked about party support and got the following results:
- Fine Gael 30% (NC)
- Labour 16% (+2)
- Fianna Fail 17% (-1)
- Sinn Fein 18% (+1)
- Others 19% (-2)
Sinn Fein now are the 2nd most popular party in the state in two successive polls, the first being the Behaviours and Attitudes poll in last weeks Sunday Times. It will be interesting if this weekends Fianna Fail Ard Fheis will change that.
- Ireland to vote on Fiscal Compact (stephenspillane.com)
- That latest Paddy Power Red C poll… (cedarlounge.wordpress.com)
- That “Behaviours and Attitudes” Poll….. and the Fine Gael dream contest. (cedarlounge.wordpress.com)
- Unsuccessful Irish Referendum Would Prevent A Future ESM-Funded Bailout (zerohedge.com)