My last post had a quick look at what the Con/Lib Agreement said on Political Reform. Now look at what should be a what the Agreement says on the EU. As a Euroblogger I probably should have done this first!

The UK will not join the Euro. No surprise there.

They will try to limit the Working Time Directive in its application to the UK.

The 1972 European Communities Act will be amended so that any proposed future Treaty that transferred areas of power, or competences, would be subject to a referendum on that Treaty. Basically the idea of the Irish Crotty Judgement incorporated into UK Law.

The Sovereignty Bill is only a maybe. The basis will be “examined”

They will press for the European Parliament only to have one seat, in Brussels. I hope they will push hard on this!

Thay have agreed that that all forthcoming legislation in the area of criminal justice will be judged on a case by case basis, with a view to maximising our country’s security and protecting Britain’s civil liberties. Britain will not participate in the establishment of any European Public Prosecutor.

It is an interesting agreement on Europe and it looks like the Liberal Democrats managed to hold back the Conservatives on some of the most europhobic parts of the party.

Another interesting part of this is that Nick Clegg may actually have more influence before a European Council then David Cameron. I am sure he will be ensuring that he attends the get togethers of the Liberal Leaders before summits, David Cameron on the other hand has no one to meet in the ECR, the Conservatives grouping in the European Parliament.

Related articles by Zemanta

• David Cameron and Nick Clegg: a marriage made here (guardian.co.uk)
• Britain’s new PM: David Cameron. A roundup (erkansaka.net)

The Liberal Democrats have posted the agreement online. Here are some of things that jump out at me on Political Reform.

• We agree to establish a committee to bring forward proposals for a wholly or mainly elected upper chamber on the basis of proportional representation.
• The parties agree to the establishment of five year fixed-term parliaments
• The parties will bring forward a Referendum Bill on electoral reform, which includes provision for the introduction of the Alternative Vote in the event of a positive result in the referendum, as well as for the creation of fewer and more equal sized constituencies.
• The parties will bring forward early legislation to introduce a power of recall,
• We have agreed to establish a commission to consider the ‘West Lothian question’
• The parties agree to the implementation of the Calman Commission proposals and the offer of a referendum on further Welsh devolution.

Some big things there! What jumps out at you?

Also David Cameron has just announced that Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister will be responsible for Political Reform. So this will be an important part of the agreement.

Taken from the StephenSpillane.com Facebook page notes:

Here is the cabinet as it is announced. The Liberal Democrats are expected to get 5 posts, 3  are confirmed (Clegg, Laws, Cable), but 2 others have been mentioned (Huhne (Climate and Energy) and Alexander (Scotland) . So far only one woman as been appointed. (13:20 update)

The Full Cabinet as Announced:

Prime Minister – David Cameron (Con)

Deputy Prime Minister – Nick Clegg (LD)

Chancellor of the Exchequer – George Osborne (Con)

Foreign Secretary – William Hague (Con)

Secretary of State for Education – Michael Gove (Con)

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions – Iain Duncan Smith (Con)

Secretary of State for Health – Andrew Lansley (Con)

Secretary of State for Scotland – Danny Alexander (LD)

Secretary of State for Defence – Liam Fox (Con)

Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change – Chris Huhne (LD)

Secretary of State for Home Affairs and minister for Women and Equality – Theresa May (Con)

Secretary of State of Justice and Lord Chancellor – Kenneth Clarke (Con)

Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills – Vince Cable (LD)

Chief Whip – Patrick McLoughlin (Con)

Chief Secretary to the Treasury – David Laws (LD)

Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government – Eric Pickles (Con)

Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs – Caroline Spelman (Con)

Secretary of State for Transport – Philip Hammond (Con)

Secretary of State for International Development – Andrew Mitchell (Con)

Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport – Jeremy Hunt (Con)

Secretary of State for Northern Ireland – Owen Paterson (Con)

Secretary of State for Wales – Cheryl Gillan (Con)

Leader of the House of Lords, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster – Lord Strathclyde (Con)

Leader of the House of Commons, Lord Privy Seal – Sir George Young (Con)

Minister for the Cabinet Office, Paymaster General – Francis Maude (Con)

Minister of State, Cabinet Office – Oliver Letwin (Con)

Minister of State (Universities and Science) – Department for Business, Innovation, and Skills – David Willetts (Con)

Minister without portfolio – Baroness Warsi (also Conservative Party chairman) (Con)

Attorney General – Dominic Grieve (Con)

Appointed:

Prime Minister: David Cameron (Con)

Deputy Prime Minister: Nick Clegg (LD)

Chancellor of the Exchequer: George Osborne (Con)

Foreign Secretary: William Hague (Con)

Health Secretary: Andrew Lansley (Con)

Defence Secretary: Liam Fox (Con)

Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary: Ken Clarke (Con)

Home Secretary and Minister for Women and Equality: Theresa May (Con)

Chief Whip: Patrick McLoughlin (Con)

Business Secretary: Vince Cable (LD)

Schools Secretary: Michael Gove (Con)

Chief Secretary to the Treasury: David Laws (LD)

Scotland Secretary: Danny Alexander (LD)

15:15 Communities and Local Government Secretary: Eric Pickles (Con)

15:35 Work and Pensions Secretary: Iain Duncan Smith (Con)

Possible Appointments:

Attorney General: Dominic Grieve (Con)

Environment and Climate Change Secretary: Chris Huhne (LD)

Culture Secretary: Jeremy Hunt (Con)

Conservative Party Chairman: Baroness Warsi (Con)

Environment, Food and Rural Affairs: Caroline Spelman (Con)

Cabinet Office: Francis Maude (Con)

Still to be Appointed:

Welsh Secretary

Northern Ireland Secretary

Transport Secretary

International Development Secretary

Paymaster General

Related articles by Zemanta

• New Cabinet: who got what job? (telegraph.co.uk)

One of the electoral systems that is currently used in the UK for European Parliament Elections, London Assembly, Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament elections is currently being ignored in the talk about a new electoral system for the UK. So I did a little experiment with the Election Calculus Simulator. I used the different nations of the UK as the basis of the constituencies. (For purpose of these I ignored the votes for others, all vote figures were taken from the BBC website)

So lets take a look at the results.

England (533 Seats)

List System:

• Conservatives (40.0%):215
• Labour (28.4%):152
• Lib Dem (24.5%):131
• UKIP (3.5%):18
• BNP (2.1%):11
• Green (1.0%): 5
• English Democrats (0.3%):1

Actual results:

• Conservatives: 297
• Labour: 191
• Liberal Democrats: 43
• Green: 1

Scotland (59 Seats)

List System:

• Labour (42.2%): 26
• SNP (20.0%): 12
• Lib Dem (19.0%): 11
• Conservative (16.8%): 10

Actual Result:

• Labour: 41
• Lib Dem: 11
• SNP: 6
• Conservatives: 1

Wales (40 Seats)

List System:

• Labour (36.9%): 16
• Conservatives (26.5%): 11
• Liberal Dems (20.5%): 8
• Plaid Cymru (11.5%): 4
• UKIP (2.5%): 1

Actual Result:

• Labour: 26
• Conservative: 8
• Lib Dem: 3
• Plaid Cymru: 3

Northern Ireland (18 seats)

List System:

• SF (27.5%): 6
• DUP (26.9%): 5
• SDLP (17.7%): 3
• UUP (16.3%): 3
• Alliance (6.8%): 1

Actual Result:

• DUP: 8
• SF :5
• SDLP: 3
• Alliance 1
• Others: 1

This would have translated to a parliament made of the following:

• Conservatives:  236
• Labour: 194
• Liberal Democrats: 150
• UKIP: 19
• SNP: 12
• BNP: 11
• SF: 6
• Greens: 5
• DUP: 5
• Plaid: 4
• SDLP: 3
• UUP: 3
• Alliance: 1
• English Democrats: 1

Now that would be an interesting Parliament!

I doubt that the List sytem would be used for the House of Commons, but it could be a possibility for the House of Lords. That makes it all the more interesting!

I know I haven’t blogged about the UK General Election since before it, that is because of two reasons. One is work and life in General and the other was I wanted to see how the coalition talks were going.

So as you know, the end results of the General Election were as follows:

• Conservatives 306 (+97)
• Labour 258 (-91)
• Liberal Democrats 57 (-5)
• DUP 8 (-1)
• SNP 6 (NC)
• Sinn Fein 5 (NC)
• Plaid Cymru 3 (+1)
• SDLP 3 (NC)
• Green 1 (+1)
• Alliance 1 (+1)

Conversely in the Local Elections in England, Labour were the winners in terms of increases, but the Conservatives still control the most councils. The Main results were as follows:

• Conservatives suffered a net loss of 8 councils and lost 121 councillors.
• Labour gained control of an extra 14 councils and gained 393 councillors
• Liberal Democrats suffered a net loss of 3 councils and lost 119 councillors
• Independents lost 106 seats
• The British National Party lost 26 seats.

So looking back at my predictions how did i do?

Vote Share

The Conservatives will win the most votes, followed by the Liberal Democrats. Labour will come third.

Well I got the first place right. But thats it.

Seats

Conservaties will have about 270, Labour, 260, Liberal Democrats 90.

I was close on the Labour number as they ended up on 258. I was out on the other two.

Other Parties

Greens will win their first seat. My money is on Brighton Pavillion.

Correct!

BNP will not win a seat.

Correct!

UKIP will win two seats. Buckingham and one other

Wrong. They won none

SNP will increase their seats by 2

Wrong, they didnt increase their seats.

PC will also increase their seats by 2

Wrong, they only took an extra seat.

So it was an interesting at times election. I stayed up until 4am Friday morning and I was bored at times.

The negotiations between the Conservatives and Lib Dems are coming to a close as I type and it will be up to the parliamentary party of each party now.

I wonder where it will go. Full coalition or Supple and Confidence Pact? What do you think?

So here is a list of seats I will be trying to watch closely. They should give an indication to the wider picture.

England

• Barking: Nick Griffin is the BNP candidate here, will he win?
• Brighton Pavillion: Green’s possible gain?
• Buckingham: Will the speaker hold on? (Counted on Friday though!)
• Dagenham and Rainham: Will the BNP gain a seat? Or will the Tories take Cruddas’ seat?
• Eastbourne: Can the Lib Dems take from the Tories also? 0.7% swing needed
• Finchley & Golders Green: This is a notional Tory seat, Labour need a 0.35% swing to hang on, will they?
• Luton South: This was Margaret Moran’s seat. Highly implicated in the expenses scandal. Has it damaged Labour beyond repair? Esther Ratzen is running here. Should be interesting!
• Morley and Outwood: Ed Balls seat. Will he hang on?
• Oxford East: One of the Lib Dem swings. All it takes is 0.2%, will they do it?
• Poplar and Limehouse: Will George Galloway remain an MP?
• Rochdale: The Bigotgate have an effect? Will the Lib Dems get in?
• Stockton South: Conservatives need a 6.5% swing to win here, its also just under the 7% they need. Should be a good indicator.
• Sunderland Central: Tory Target but needs a 10.5% swing
• Watford: One of those three way marginals! Let see what happens!
• Wyre Forest: Independent, Richard Taylor, held since 2001, Lib Dems are challenging here this time out. Can he hold on?

Scotland

• Dundee West: If things go really bad for Labour in Scotland, on an 7.29% swing, the SNP could gain this seat.
• Ochil and South Perthshire: SNP need a 0.74% swing from Labour.

Wales

• Arfon: Plaid target, this time from Labour. They need a 0.91% swing!
• Ceredigion: Plaid target from the Lib Dems. Need 0.31% swing
• Ynys Môn : Another Labour seat targeted by Plaid, they need 0.75% swing here.

Northern Ireland

• Belfast South: The DUP want to gain this from the SDLP. They need a nearly 2% swing though.

Other lists of ones to watch from the Independent, FT, Wikipedia and Ekklesia

What constituencies will you be watching?

So tomorrow will see the polls opening for the UK General Election. I have been following the campaigns in my spare time but not really blogging about it. Mainly as I didn’t know where I stood. I do now.

I am hoping for a Liberal Democrat surge tomorrow.

But enough of who I want to do well, on to some predictions. Some of these are random, others are obvious. I will be up late into the night on Thursday watching the results on the telly and if anything interesting happens, it will be blogged about!

So, on to the predictons!

Vote Share

The Conservatives will win the most votes, followed by the Liberal Democrats. Labour will come third.

Seats

Conservaties will have about 270, Labour, 260, Liberal Democrats 90.

Other Parties

Greens will win their first seat. My money is on Brighton Pavillion.

BNP will not win a seat.

UKIP will win two seats. Buckingham and one other

SNP will increase their seats by 2

PC will also increase their seats by 2

Northern Ireland is too close to call for me.

They are my predictions. A hung parliament is in the offing. Have you got any predictions?

Related articles by Zemanta

• UK Election 2010 (stephenspillane.com)
• Newspaper support in UK general elections (guardian.co.uk)

While procrastinating I cam across some really interesting youtube videos concerning the UK Election. So I decided to post a few of them.

First up is a viral from the Independent. I really like and points out the faults with all three parties.

The Truth Behind the UK Election

I also enjoyed Yahoo’s look at what people on the street think of the election.

Total Politics put together a video encouraging people to vote. Its a fun video, I recognised a few people but not all of them

To end, and thereby not endorse any of the Parties, Vote For A Change are encouraging people to vote for a Hung Parliament in this short video

Hang Parliament: Vote for a Hung Parliament in the 2010 UK Election

Have you seen any good election videos?

Related articles by Zemanta

• UK Election 2010 (stephenspillane.com)
• Euro roundup I: British elections (erkansaka.net)
• A video: Vote-u-lator for the British voters (erkansaka.net)

I haven’t yet blogged about the general election in the UK. For me this has been one of the most interesting ones to watch. The rise of Liberal Democrats is amazing to see, and the polls are all over the place. The only thing for certain is that Labour will not win the popular vote.

That is where watching UK elections get boring. No matter haw much you play with swing calculators and polls the Lib Dems even if they win the popular vote, will not be forming the next government. They may form part of it, or support the next government through some sort of pact, but it will not be what they want.

Of course this puts the Lib Dems in the best position to ask for and get electoral reform. Labour are willing to give the Alternative Vote, but the Liberal Democrats want PRSTV like here in Ireland. Now how exciting would UK elections be then?

The Conservatives are holding there own in this election, but of course the rise of the Lib Dems has caught everyone. No one was prepared for that. They are down slightly in the polls, but still are in the lead.

The night of May 6th is going to be a very interesting night. There will be heads rolling from the cabinet on a good day for Labour. The Brown campaign isn’t going well, but good campaigning by good candidates will see them do well.

One of the seats I will be watching will be Brighton Pavillion as there the Green Party has one of its best chances to take a seat. Another one to watch will be Norwich North. I will of course be also hoping that Barking doesn’t go to the BNP.

This election could mark a change in UK Politics, for that reason alone I will be up all night on May 6th!

Related articles by Zemanta

• Nick Clegg: I will not prop up Labour if they come third (guardian.co.uk)
• Tories step up bid for new votes (news.bbc.co.uk)
• Prime Minister Clegg ? (themoderatevoice.com)
• Tories Turn Fire On Liberal Democrats (news.sky.com)
• Hung parliament: what the Lib Dems would demand (guardian.co.uk)

People often wonder why I show interest in UK Politics. I find it really interesting and absorbing. The following letter from two fromer Ministers really sums up why I find it more interesting!

Dear Colleague,

As we move towards a General Election it remains the case that the Parliamentary Labour Party is deeply divided over the question of the leadership. Many colleagues have expressed their frustration at the way in which this question is affecting our political performance. We have therefore come to the conclusion that the only way to resolve this issue would be to allow every member to express their view in a secret ballot.

This could be done quickly and with minimum disruption to the work of MPs and the Government. Whatever the outcome the whole of the party could then go forward, knowing that this matter had been sorted out once and for all.

Strong supporters of the Prime Minister should have no difficulty in backing this approach. There is a risk otherwise that the persistent background briefing and grumbling could continue up to and possibly through the election campaign, affecting our ability to concentrate all of our energies on getting our real message across.

Equally those who want change, should they lose such a vote, would be expected by the majority of the PLP to devote all of their efforts to winning the election. The implications of such a vote would be clear – everyone would be bound to support the result.

This is a clear opportunity to finally lay this matter to rest. The continued speculation and uncertainty is allowing our opponents to portray us as dispirited and disunited. It is damaging our ability to set out our strong case to the electorate. It is giving our political opponents an easy target.

In what will inevitably be a difficult and demanding election campaign, we must have a determined and united parliamentary party. It is our job to lead the fight against our political opponents. We can only do that if we resolve these distractions. We hope that you will support this proposal.

Yours fraternally,

Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt

Text of letter from Sky News

With an election coming up in May, this has serious ramifications for the Labour Party. Will Gordon Brown stay or go? Will the ballot go ahead??? Its all very interesting! I will be watching it closely!

Related articles by Zemanta

• The Audacity of Pope (iaindale.blogspot.com)
• Jowell Denies Claim She Will Quit To Oust PM (news.sky.com)
• Mandelson returns to Brown fold (guardian.co.uk)