Interesting take on the yesterdays IMS poll

got this off a friend

I’m sure you’ve seen or heard about the IMS poll in the Tribune yesterday.

FF – 39
FG – 22
Lab – 12
PD – 5
Green – 5
SF – 7
Others – 10

IMS did similar polls during the 2002 general election, and their predictions were woeful. 2 days before the election they had a poll which had FF on 50% (they got 41% on the day) and had FG on 18% (we got 22.5%). This crazy margin of error seems to continue to this day and would explain why FF are so high and FG so low in IMS polls, compared to the MRBI and RedC ones.

So if you correct yesterdays poll in line with the margins of error IMS had in 2002, you get:

FF – 31%
FG – 26%
Lab – 11%
PD – 6%
SF – 8%
Green – 4%
Others – 13%

FF/PD – 37%
FG/Labour – 37%
FG/Labour/Greens – 41%

A crude way of looking at it perhaps, but it paints a very different picture – one that the Sunday Tribune dont seem to think is worth noting.

So if the Tribune, or anyone else, think that the election is over……….then they need their heads examined!

PS: If you meet any crowing FF members in the next few days- you might ask them what they think of the plunging FF support in Dublin – down from 44% to 31% in the space of 2 months. If you believe IMS, their support in Dublin is actually 4% LOWER now than it was before Ahern blubbed and sobbed about his money troubles.

Author: Stephen

Cork born and bred, proud European and Irishman. Involved in many organisations and politics. Also writes for SpirtualityIreland.org and UCC Express.

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