I have written an article over on Newsvine on this. I have reproduced it below.
The Governments decision to scrap automatic Medical Cards for the over-70’s is still reverberating around the News websites and the papers letters pages. I have heard one theory on why the Government is not backing down on this issue despite the disquiet on the backbenches and with the coalition partners. Do they want the Government to fall?
This is my fathers theory. Basically Fianna Fail were not especting to win the General Election last year. So now they are stuck with a financial mess that they walked us into and have no Idea how to get us out of it. So the only solution is to lose a vote on the Social Welfare Bill and force a General Election. But will this happen?
A number of Government TD’s have come out against the proposals and a the Green’s are “concerned” over it, but will they vote against the Government? I have my doubts on the majority of those ho have expressed concern actually voting against but I believe that three could, Noel O’Flynn from Cork North Central, Tom Kitt from Dublin South and Jim McDaid from Donegal North East. The Governments majority of three votes is already reduced due to the resignation of Joe Behan from Wicklow from Fianna Fáil. The support of the four independents, especially Finian McGrath, Dublin North Central, Jackie Healy-Rae, Kerry South and Michael Lowry, Tipperary North is also in doubt.
If the independents vote against this bill, amotion of no confidence would have to be put before the Dáil or the Taoiseach can ask the President to dissolve the Oireachtas and call an election. The question is what will happen?