Well Predict 09, the Burson – Marsteller study by Simon Hix (London School of Economics), Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin), and Nick Vivyan (London School of Economics), has updated its predictions. It is now predicting that the EPP will win 251 seats, up three from last prediction, the PES are predicted to win 211, up two from the previous predction.
They have also updated the country predictions. For Ireland they are forcasting the following.
- Fine Gael 6 MEPs (31%) +1 (+3.2%)
- Fianna Fail 4 MEPs (31%) -1 (+1.5%)
- Labour 1 MEP (14%) nc (+3.4%)
- Sinn Fein 0 MEPs (7.8%) -1 (-3.3%)
- Green Party 0 MEPs (6.6%) nc (+2.3%)
- Independents 1 MEP (9.2%) -1 (6.3%)
They predict that Sinn Fein’s Mary Lou McDonald will be the one to lose out in Dublin considering she holds Sinn Feins only European seat in the South. The independent they forcast losing the seat is the ALDE independent which is Marian Harkin in Ireland North-West. They are predicting that Sen Joe O’Reilly will take a second seat for Fine Gael in Ireland North-West. While this would be great, I don’t think it will be likely that Harkin will lose the seat. I think that Fianna Fail are in danger of loosing this seat since sitting MEP Seán Ó Neachtain will not be running. The current Fianna Fail candidate is Paschal Mooney a Leitrim Councillor but he would not be aswell known as many of the other candidates in the constituency. Last time out it took transfers from Dr. Jim McDaid TD to keep Fianna Fail in. I wonder will Fine Gael get the 6 seats?
The other poll is the Red C poll for the Sunday Business Post. The topline figures are as follows (from Irish Election):
- Fine Gael 33% +2
- Fianna Fail 23% -5
- Labour 19% +2
- Sinn Fein 8% +1
- Greens 7% nc
- Others/Independents 10%
This gives Fine Gael a full 10% lead over Fianna Fail. But should we be further ahead? When it came to the European and Local elections Fine Gael does lose out on votes to independents, but that is normal. Interestingly Libertas is only polling at 2%, so I doubt they will be gaining any seats in Ireland.
The poll was conducted earlier in the week before McGuiness’s outburst on the Late Late last night. I wonder will that effect how people perceive the Government?