Fianna Fail to loose 2 MEPs?

The latest predictions from Predict 09 are out and they make for interesting reading for the Irish predictions. According to it Fine Gael will remain the largest party with five MEP’s and 30% of the vote. They say the Fianna Fail will loose two MEPs. And I have to agree with them. They predict that Fianna Fail will get 28% of the vote.

Labour look to be the big gainers and will gain a seat at the expense of Fianna Fail increasing there MEPs to two and increasing their share of the vote to 13%. Sinn Fein will drop in its vote share to 7.6% but will retain an MEP, but I doubt in Dublin. Sinnott and Harkin will keep there seats. I know Harkin will keep her seat and have said it from the start of this prediction. Sinnott on the other hand is vunerable to Labour.

Greens won’t pick up a seat but will poll at 6% and Libertas also will not pick up a seat and will get about 7% of the vote.

Where will Fianna Fail loose their seats? North-West is certainly at stake and Sinn Fein could pick up a seat there. As for the Labour gain? South is the most likely in my eyes at the expense of Sinnott. Could Fianna Fail loose in East or Dublin? Maybe.

Predict 09 will next be updated on May 21st, so that will be my next post about the Irish predictions!

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Author: Stephen

Cork born and bred, proud European and Irishman. Involved in many organisations and politics. Also writes for and UCC Express.

3 thoughts on “Fianna Fail to loose 2 MEPs?”

  1. Dublin is an interesting battle at the moment not only due to the by-election.

    Previously a 4 seat constituency for the European Parliament it has been reduced to 3 seats. It is the only constituency where Sinn Fein have recorded a victory in the European elections, where Mary Lou McDonald is now seeking re-election. As the party vice president, with a comparatively strong support base in Dublin, coupled with voter dissatisfaction for the government she is in a good position to fight for her seat. It should be noted that two other high-profile candidates are also seeking to run on the government dissatisfaction theme: Caroline Simons from Libertas, and Patricia McKenna as an independent.

    FG and Labour are taking a single candidate approach, Gay Mitchell and Proinsias de Rossa, each returning MEP’s with strong support base and both parties enjoying a surge in the opinion polls they are favourites to hold their seats, which leaves 1 seat up for grabs. Eoin Ryan is the FF MEP seeking re-election and one would have thought he could see off the challenge from Mary Lou, however Fianna Fail are having a nightmare of an election and this is certainly not helped by them running two candidates in the European Election for the Dublin constituency. Eibhlin Byrne (Lord Mayor of Dublin) is also running for FF. Splitting the vote like this when fighting for a seat in Dublin seems a bit crazy, and may give Mary Lou the opportunity for reelection serving a famous victory over FF.

    Dublin is certainly up for grabs.

    1. the 2 candidate strategy works well in large constituencies when transfers come into to play. Dublin will be laregly won on transfers. FF are gaurenteed one set of transfers. SF do not attract transfers very easily from other parties and do not have a quota in Dublin. In fact last time she got in as last person standing. Will she do it again? I dont think so. I’d say no change in Dublin. But that is my opinion! 🙂

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