I’ve been looking at Predict09′s latest predictions and from looking at the headline figures from last thursdays figures for Ireland. To me it is a case that this is election for Labour to loose.
The headline figures are (in comparison to 2004 figures):
- Fine Gael 32% (+4.2%) 4 MEPs (-1)
- Fianna Fail 27% (-2.5%) 3 MEPs (-1)
- Labour 14% (+3.4%) 3 MEPs (+2)
- Green Party 6.2% (+1.9%) 0 MEP (NC)
- Sinn Fein 5.6% (-5.5%) 1 MEP (NC)
- Independents 8.6% (-6.9%) 1 MEP (-1)
- Libertas 6.7% 0 MEP
As the figures suggest Labour will make gains in this election. The two seats will most likely be in Ireland East and Ireland South. Fianna Fail look dead set to loose in Dublin. Fine Gael unless they get the vote share right in Ireland East will loose the seat held by Avril Doyle. Kathy Sinnot will be struggling to hang on to her seat.
What is interesting is that it looks like Libertas will out poll Green Party and Sinn Fein yet will not win a seat. If they poll this figure on the day, will they continue as a party if they dont get a seat?
The next prediction will be out on June 4th so an eve of election poll.