Eve of Election Prediction

So Predict09 have their final prediction up. They have the European Groupings as follows:

  • EPP: 262 seats
  • PES: 194
  • ALDE: 85
  • UEN/EC: 53
  • Greens-EFA: 50
  • EUL/NGL: 40
  • Ind/Dem: 23
  • Non-insrcit: 30

So the EPP will be the largest party by far in the next European Parliament. So Barroso is safe enough I would say.

Looking at Ireland, they are predicting no major changes in the line up. They have the parties on the following (the increase is in realtion to the 2004 results):

  • Fine Gael: 34% (+6.2%) 4 MEps (-1)
  • Fianna Fail: 20% (-9.5%) 3 MEPS (-1)
  • Labour: 14% (+3.4)   2 MEPs (+1)
  • Sinn Fein: 9% (-2.1%) 1 MEP (nc)
  • Green Party: 4% (-0.3%) ) 0 MEPs (nc)
  • Libertas: 4% 0 MEPs
  • Independents: 15% (-0.5%) 2 Meps

So Fianna Fails Eoin Ryan looks set to be one of only two loses in the European Elections. They have him to loose his seat. Labour look like they will only gain one seat, when could do so much more. It will be a Fine Gaels expense in Ireland East.

Despite having Sinnott to loose in a previous prediction it looks like her support has rallied and she may keep her seat. Harkin too is safe.

But will it happen as predicted? Sunday could be a very boring night at the count centre. I don’t think it will as there is a huge thing about where the transfers will go. Its anybodys guess half the time I would say!

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Author: Stephen

Cork born and bred, proud European and Irishman. Involved in many organisations and politics. Also writes for SpirtualityIreland.org and UCC Express.

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