Polls all over the Place?

Party representation in Dáil Éireann (Irish lo...
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So tonight we get the third poll in a week! This one if from the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI. The headline figures are as follows:

  • Fianna Fail: 24+3.
  • Fine Gael 24-3.
  • Labour 33.+4.
  • Green 2-2.
  • Sinn Fein 8-2.
  • Others 9 nc.

In terms of leaders its:

  • Cowen 19+1.
  • Kenny 25+1.
  • Gilmore 49 +3.

This is compared with last Sundays Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll:

  • Fine Gael 31 (-2)
  • Fianna Fail 24,(nc)
  • Labour 23 (-4)
  • SinnFein 10 (+2)
  • Green 3 (+1)
  • Others 9 (+3)

You then have to compare it also to last weeks TV3/Milward Brown poll which had these results:

  • Fianna Fail: 22
  • Fine Gael: 30
  • Labour: 35
  • Green: 2
  • Sinn Fein: 4
  • Others: 8

As you can see from the three polls, the only thing they agree on its Fianna Fail support in the 22-24% area. The Polls also agree on the level of support for the Green Party who seem to be stuck in the margin of error with support of around 2-3%.

Fine Gael vary from 24% in Ipsos MORI to 33% with Red C. Labour also vary from 23% in the Red C poll to 35% in the Milward Brown Poll. Sinn Fein’s support also varies but not as much. They are on 4% according to Milward Brown but on 10% according to Red C.

We can only assume that the actual figures are in between those results.

Red C is often seen by political activists (well the ones I have met) as being the one that is most accurate. Going by the results of the other two polls I am not sure if I go along with that theory.

To me all these polls show is that there is a lot of votes out there to be fought for. At the moment Labour are doing a better job of getting them, will that change as the Dáil session gets underway? The next set of polls should  let us know that.

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Author: Stephen

Cork born and bred, proud European and Irishman. Involved in many organisations and politics. Also writes for SpirtualityIreland.org and UCC Express.

5 thoughts on “Polls all over the Place?”

  1. I do personally believe that SBP are more accurate. For example by asking a swing voter on a regular basis you get a real picture of how things are going. Asking a random Fianna Fáil supporter on the street is not polling accurately in my view.

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