Latest Red C Poll: The end of Fianna Fail?

Ireland - Sinn Fein political poster
Image by Rick Payette via Flickr

The latest opinion poll by Red C due to be published in tomorrow’s Irish Sun makes for sombre reading for members of Fianna Fail. According to the poll, they will come fourth in an General Election, as now Sinn Fein as more support then Fianna Fail.

The results of the poll are as follows:

  • Fine Gael 32%
  • Labour 24%
  • Sinn Fein 16%
  • Fianna Fail 13%
  • Others 11%
  • Green Party3%

When this is translated into seats, according to Adrian Kavanagh on politicalreform.ie, the Dáil could like this:

  • Fine Gael 67
  • Labour 48
  • Sinn Fein 24
  • Fianna Fail 12
  • Independents/others: 15

This would lead to a number of possible outcomes. An FG/Lab coalition which would have a substantial majority in the region of 30 votes.

A left wing government of Lab/SF/Inds. They would need the support of 11 of the independents, but with many left-wing independents expected to be elected (going on this poll including Joe Higgin,s Richard Boyd Barrett and Catherine Murphy) it could be a possibility.

A grand coalition of FF/FG would not be possible with these results.

What would be interesting in this scenario is which 12 Fianna Failers would survive. As Seamus Kirk is automatically elected as Ceann Comhairle, it would mean that only 11 would be elected! They could be

  • Brian Cowen,
  • John McGuinness,
  • Timmy Dooley,
  • Michael Moynihan,
  • Michael Martin,
  • Michael Kennedy,
  • Tom Kitt,
  • Noel Treacy,
  • Eamonn O’Cuiv,
  • Willie O’Dea,
  • Niall Collins
  • Seamus Kirk.

What an interesting result that would be! Will it happen tough?

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Author: Stephen

Cork born and bred, proud European and Irishman. Involved in many organisations and politics. Also writes for SpirtualityIreland.org and UCC Express.

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