So with the campaigning underway and nominations coming in, Paddy Power has commissioned RED C to undertake an opinion poll for the Presidential Election.
The results are interesting and changes are from the last RED C Poll in August.
- Micheal D Higgins (Lab) 36% (-3)
- Gay Mitchell (FG) 24% (-1)
- Sean Gallagher (Ind) 21% (nc)
- Mary Davies (Ind) 19% (+4)
The only candidate to rise in the poll is Mary Davies, which may show some momentum in the campaign as her profile rises. The drop in the support of the two party candidates will be a surprise to the teams, but may also serve to light the fire under them to get them working harder.
The other key finding of the poll in 33% of votes are undecided on who they will support. They are predominately young voters under 35.
While Sinn Fein have yet to announce a candidate, they possible will this weekend, this is the first poll with the four candidates and no “fantasy” candidate.
As the polls come in, during the campaign, I will again be doing a poll of polls. This is will be the initial poll.
Meanwhile in the betting stakes, also from Paddy Power, the odds are:
- 8/13 Michael D.Higgins (from 4/7)
- 3/1 Gay Mitchell
- 13/2 Mary Davis
- 8/1 Sean Gallagher (from 9/1)
- 28/1 Mary Lou McDonald
- 28/1 Martin McGuinness
- 28/1 Michelle Gildernew
Its getting interesting.
- RedC Aras Poll for PaddyPower: Higgins 36%, Mitchell 24%, Gallagher 21%, Davis 19% (politics.ie)
- Race for the Aras Gets Under-way (stephenspillane.com)
- President Mary Lou Or Gildernew? Sinn Féin’s Options (ansionnachfionn.com)