Pollwatch: RED C/SBP Polls September 25th

Sinn Fein Advice Centre, Circular Road, Castle...
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The Sunday Business Post has two polls for us about the Irish Presidential Election. It has one poll with the 5 nominated candidates so far and one poll with the 7 candidates who will most likely be on the ballot on October 27th.

In the 5 Candidate poll the 1st preference vote would look as follows:

  • Higgins, Michael D (Lab) 27%
  • McGuinness, Martin (SF) 20%
  • Davis, Mary (Ind) 20%
  • Mitchell, Gay (FG) 15%
  • Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 15%

This poll is interesting as it has Davis level with McGuinness, but with Sinn Fein being transfer toxic, Davis could be the one to make it to the final count with Higgins.

In the 7 candidate the poll, the first preferences are as follows:

  • Norris, David (Ind) 21%
  • Higgins, Michael D (Ind) 18%
  • McGuinness, Martin (SF) 16%
  • Davis, Mary (Ind) 13%
  • Mitchell, Gay (FG) 13%
  • Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 11%
  • Scanlon, Dana Rosemary (Ind) 6%

When Senator Norris is added in to the poll he takes a margin of error lead over Higgins. Davis falls back to tie with Fine Gael’s Mitchell who does not seem to be making much of an impact in the campaign.

Of course with this many candidates in the race it will all come down to transfers. With this looking like the first Presidential Election to go further then two counts, where the transfers go will be what is important. RED C have polled this and the results are interesting.

  • Norris, David (Ind) 6%
  • Higgins, Michael D (Ind) 20%
  • McGuinness, Martin (SF) 8%
  • Davis, Mary (Ind) 16%
  • Mitchell, Gay (FG) 14%
  • Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 14%
  • Scanlon, Dana Rosemary (Ind) 7%

This is where the campaign for Norris falls down as he comes last in terms of 2nd preferences where he is beaten by McGuinness and Dana. This would spell disaster as both Higgins and Davis could easily gain enough transfers to leapfrog him and leave it as a two horse race. Unless Norris can get a larger lead, he may win the first count but ultimately lose the election. The beauty of the Irish Electoral System?

Author: Stephen

Cork born and bred, proud European and Irishman. Involved in many organisations and politics. Also writes for SpirtualityIreland.org and UCC Express.

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