It’s Clinton or Bust

Hillary_for_America_2016_logo.svgIts nearing the end April and with the last nominating contest of the Democratic Presidential on June 14th in Washington DC, there is only 1,594 pledged delegates left up for grabs Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has solidified her lead in her contest against Bernie Sanders. She has a lead now that is near insurmountable for Sanders to take over.

The target of 2,383 delegates is the key for the two campaigns and with Clinton only 459 delegates away from that target including Super Delegates it is almost certainly in the bag.

Bernie_Sanders_2016_logoFor Sanders now to take the lead it would take a gargantuan effort to win big and win hard in a contest where he hasn’t had any big wins. To win the nomination Sanders would have to win the following states with large margins over Clinton according to a FiveThirtyEight update

  • California +18
  • Pennsylvania +9
  • New Jersey +10
  • Indiana +18
  • Oregon +51
  • Puerto Rico +13
  • Connecticut +16
  • Kentucky +24
  • New Mexico +12
  • West Virginia +38
  • Rhode Island +33
  • Montana +52
  • South Dakota +40
  • North Dakota +56
  • Guam +14
  • Virgin Island +14

Sanders can only afford to lose Maryland, Delaware and DC. Is this really possible? Even managing to possible switch Super Delegates to his side using the ‘popular vote’ argument as suggested by some of his team would be a hard sell at the present time.

Clinton is winning on all fronts. She has a lead in pledged delegates, super delegates and the popular vote.

Clinton has 1,362 pledged delegates to Sanders’ 1,052, she has the total support of 1,924 delegates to his 1,245, she has 56.4% of the popular vote to his 42.06%. It is all looking good for Secretary Clinton.

2016_Democratic_National_Convention_LogoIf the Democrats are to win the Presidential Election both campaigns need to start coming together for party unity ahead of the Democratic National Convention on July 25th in Philedelphia, Pennsylvania. Unity could provide a stark contrast to what is the high probability of a brokered convention and possible floor fights at the Republican National Convention on July 18th in Cleveland, Ohio, as Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz battle it out until the convention. It is highly unlikely either candidate will reach the magic number for the Republican Nomination of 1,237 before the convention and as the campaign continues it gives the Democrats the opportunity to get organised and come together as they did in 2008 to defeat who ever is nominated by the Republicans.

So will Sanders now begin to reign his attacks? Or will it take the results of the next nominating contests where 462 delegates are up for grabs in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island on April 26th for him see that he has no path to the nomination, with or without super delegates.

All figures for delegates and vote totals taken from I am updating a Google sheet for Democratic Presidential Primary here

Author: Stephen

Cork born and bred, proud European and Irishman. Involved in many organisations and politics. Also writes for and UCC Express.

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