#LE19 & #EP2019 Polls from Red C

In yesterday’s (Sunday 21st April) Sunday Business Post we were blessed with not one, not two, but three polls! One on if there was a General Election, one for the Europeans and one for the Locals.

Red C interviewed a sample of 1000 adults between April 11th and 17th. There is a margin of error of +/- 3%.

Around 20% of voters are undecided with five weeks to go to Election day on May 24th

Lets take a look at the General Election figures 1st (change is in relation to last poll at end of March)

  • Fine Gael 33% (+2 in three weeks)
  • Fianna Fáil 23% (-2)
  • Sinn Féin 14% (+1)
  • Independents 16% (+1)
  • Labour 5%
  • Greens 3%
  • SocDems 2% (-1)
  • Ind Alliance 2% (-1)
  • Sol-PBP 1 %(-1)
  • Aontú 1% (+1)
  • Others <1%

A good poll for Fine Gael who have a 10 point lead on Fianna Fail. Labour, the Green Party, SocDems and the smaller parties are failing to get into double digits, with only Sinn Fein and Independents making a challenge with 14% and 16% respectively.

Next we look at the European Parliament voting intentions.

  • Fine Gael 33%
  • Fianna Fáil 21%
  • Sinn Féin 16%
  • Independents 18%
  • Labour 4%
  • Greens 4%
  • SocDems 1%
  • Ind Alliance 2%
  • Sol-PBP 1< %
  • Aontú <1%
  • Others <1%

This poll should see Fine Gael retain its four seats in the European Parliament, while Fianna Fail should see them win three seats (one in each constituency). Sinn Fein’s result should see them hold at least 2 out of their 3 seats, but with a good chance of returning all 3. The other seats will go to a mix of the smaller parties and independents. Of course this will all depend on whether we have 11 seats or 13 seats and what way the 20% undecided voters split between now and election day.

And finally the local elections

  • Fine Gael 27%
  • Fianna Fáil 20%
  • Sinn Féin 15%
  • Independents 21%
  • Labour 5%
  • Greens 5%
  • SocDems 1%
  • Ind Alliance 4%
  • Sol-PBP <1 %
  • Aontú <1%
  • Others 3%

This poll would see Fine Gael increase its support by 3% on the 2014 Local Election which Fianna Fail would slip back by 5.5% on the 2014 results. But with a large number of voters undecided and the personal vote of a number high-profile of a number of local election candidate it is hard to predict the number of seats for each party.