The Next Election

Irish President Mary McAleese's entourage
Image via Wikipedia

The next nationw-wide election we are due to have in Ireland is (barring a sudden General Election) is a Presidential Election. This is due at the latest October 2010 2011, but I have a feeling President Mary McAlees will finish out her term. To run for President you need to be a citizen of the states, over 35 and nominated in one of the following ways:

  • by 20 members of the Oireachtas
  • by four county or city councils
  • or if an incumbent or former president if you served one term, you can nominate yourself

Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, and Labour can each nominate on members of Oireachtas alone. There is a possibility of a Green/Ind candidate as they would have 21 members if they all backed one candidate.

Of course we hear many rumours about who will run and that, but here are what I have heard and a few predictions

Fianna Fail

There is no secret here that at Senator Mary White and MEP Brian Crowley both want the nomination. There is always talk of former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern running but I don’t see him getting many votes outside of Dublin. I think Crowley will be the Fianna Fail Nominee.

Fine Gael

In contrast to Fianna Fail, the Fine Gael crowd dont seem to want to rock the boat. The names I have heard mentioned are Avril Doyle, Mairead McGuinness and Sean Kelly. All current or former MEP’s. I am not sure who the nominee could be. I’m thinking it could be Kelly vs McGuinness for the nomination.

Labour Party

Micheal D Higgins name normally features in these discussions, but age this time could work against him. Ruairi Quinn, who didnt get elected as Ceann Comhairle, could try and run for the presidency instead. Ivana Bacik also could be the nominee hoping to follow in Mary Robinsons footsteps. Of course Labour could try and get someone from the SDLP in the Noth to run, like Bríd Rogers. I’m putting my money on Bacik though.

Sinn Fein

As this term of office will include the centenary of 1916, Sinn Fein would love to hold the highest office in land. Gerry Adams, Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle Gildernew have all been mentioned as possible candidates. As there is a bit of rift in the party between North and South at the moment, the South might prefer to have Mary Lou as the nominee.

Green Party

Eamon Ryan wanted to run last time round, will he try to run again? Can’t really think of anyone else from the Green ranks.

Independents

Dana Rosemary Scanlon could try and run again for the Presidency. I wouldn’t put it past Kathy Sinnott to give it a run. David Norris probably wont run, but it would be great if he did. Mary Robinson could of course run again as she only served one term.

2010 2011 will be an interesting election. I wonder will I have gotten many right?

In the betting stakes according to Paddy Power, Bertie Ahern is favourite to be the Next Irish President at 2/1, he is followed by Brian Crowley at 4/1. Check out the rest!

Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

The European Elections – It’s Labour’s to loose?

Labour Party (Ireland)
Image via Wikipedia

I’ve been looking at Predict09′s latest predictions and from looking at the headline figures from last thursdays figures for Ireland. To me it is a case that this is election for Labour to loose.

The headline figures are (in comparison to 2004 figures):

  • Fine Gael 32% (+4.2%) 4 MEPs (-1)
  • Fianna Fail 27% (-2.5%) 3 MEPs (-1)
  • Labour 14% (+3.4%) 3 MEPs (+2)
  • Green Party 6.2% (+1.9%) 0 MEP (NC)
  • Sinn Fein 5.6% (-5.5%) 1 MEP (NC)
  • Independents 8.6% (-6.9%) 1 MEP (-1)
  • Libertas 6.7% 0 MEP

As the figures suggest Labour will make gains in this election. The two seats will most likely be in Ireland East and Ireland South. Fianna Fail look dead set to loose in Dublin. Fine Gael unless they get the vote share right in Ireland East will loose the seat held by Avril Doyle. Kathy Sinnot will be struggling to hang on to her seat.

What is interesting is that it looks like Libertas will out poll Green Party and Sinn Fein yet will not win a seat. If they poll this figure on the day, will they continue as a party if they dont get a seat?

The next prediction will be out on June 4th so an eve of election poll.

Reblog this post [with Zemanta]