Some interesting German polling

Logo of the German Pirate Party Deutsch: Logo ...
Logo of the German Pirate Party Deutsch: Logo der Piratenpartei Deutschland (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

There has been some interesting polls done in Germany in the last few days. With important state elections coming up in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia and the Federal Elections next year. The first poll released on the 8th April by TNS Emnid show the following:

  • CDU/CSU 36%
  • SPD 26%
  • Green 13%
  • FDP 4%
  • Die Linke 7%
  • Pirate 10%
  • Others 4%

The second poll is by Forsa for RTL and had the following

  • CDU/CSU 36%
  • SPD 24%
  • Green 11%
  • FDP 5%
  • Die Linke 8%
  • Pirate 13%
  • Others 3%

The polls show that the Pirate Party are seriously challenging for the largest third party in Germany. After strong results in recent elections, the Pirate Party could be the king makers in the next Parliament as they will clearly breach the 5% vote threshold. The Greens look set to be pushed back to 4th while the FDP look set to survive into the next Parliament as they seem to be just around the 5% threshold.

While most commentators expect the next German Government to be a grand coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD, this could change things if the trend continues this way.

“Lisbon treaty now in Irish hands.”

Image via Wikipedia

The above is according to Elmar Brok MEP (CDU/EPP). This because today the Czech Senate today approved the Treaty of Lisbon, leaving Ireland as the only EU member state not to have passed it.

From the press release:

“Now the Lisbon  treaty lies in the hands of Ireland  , because there is no alternative to the Lisbon treaty. The people in Ireland have made it clear that they want the European Union to be more democratic, transparent and efficient. This can only be achieved with the Lisbon treaty” Brok said.

The EU summit in June has to set the conditions for a new referendum in Ireland  . “The Irish government should submit a timetable for the ratification of the Lisbon  treaty in the entire European Union, in order to make Europe fit for the future”, he emphasised.

That said summit in June will be interesting as it will be chaired by Václav Klaus, the Lisbon-hating President of the Czech Republic.

Brok continues

“Many concerns of Irish citizens regarding the Lisbon  treaty are unfounded and can be met by declarations of the European Council, which will later become legally binding. The Lisbon  treaty makes the EU more democratic, because it strengthens the European Parliament and the national parliaments. Decision-making will become more efficient under Lisbon, for example by the expansion of majority decisions in the Council. Overall, the work of the European Union becomes more democratic, more efficient, and more transparent”.

Of course we still have to see these declarations and see will they actually mean some of the valid concerns that people have. Of course there won’t be a referendum on the Treaty until October which means hopefully the Government will be a bit more prepared for it.

If you are wondering the vote in the Czech Senate was 54 in favour to 20 against with 5 abstensions.
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Hesse Election Results 2009

FDP logoImage via WikipediaFor some reason I am getting lots of hits on the blog for search terms to do with the recent election is Hesse so I better put them up! For last years result see here. This year saw the SPD’s vote collapse from 36.7% to 23.7%. This reduces the number of seats they hold from 42 to 29. The CDU increased their vote share marginally going from 36.8% in 2008 to 37.2% in 2009. They now hold 46 seats, up from 42. The FDP are the major gainers in this election. They increased their vote share from 9.4% to 16.2%. Meaning they take 20 seats up from 11. Der Grüne also increased their vote share from 7.5% to 13.7% bringing their number of seats to 17 from 9, nearly doubling their representation. Der Linke also increased their vote share but only marginally from 5.1% to 5.3% and sees them stay on 6 seats.

It looks likely that the CDU and the FDP will form a governing coalition, as they will hold 66 seats out of the 110. This will help shore up Merkel’s and the CDU’s electoral chances as they face into the General Election later this year.

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CSU set to lose Bayern

The Christian Social Union (CSU), the sister party of Angela Merkel’s CDU, look set to lose state elections held today in Bayern (Bavaria) reports The Local. Exit polls show the CSU have gotten only 43% of the vote. This is the CSU worst election since 1952 and means they will lose their absolute majority, which they have held since 1962.

The SPD are also down on 2003 according to the exit poll, which has them at 19%. The Greens and the FDP did well and increased their vote to 9.2% and 8.4% respectively and the Free Voters polled 10.2% ensuring that at least five parties will be represented in the state parliament. Die Linke who have made gains across Germany looks set to fail to reach the 5% threshold, polling at 4.7%.

This is not good reading for the CDU who are facing though times ahead of next years general election, of course it does not look well either for the SPD who are in a ‘grand coalition’ with the CDU.

More Information:
The Local – CSU suffers huge losses in Bavarian vote
Swissinfo – Merkel allies suffer big losses in Bavaria vote

German Politics: Federal Election, 2005

The Bundestag nominally has 598 members, elected for a four year term, 299 members elected in single-seat constituencies according to first-past-the-post, while a further 299 members are allocated from statewide party lists to achieve a proportional distribution in the legislature, conducted according to a system of proportional representation called the additional member system. Voters vote once for a constituency representative, and a second time for a party, and the lists are used to make the party balances match the distribution of second votes. In the current parliament there are 16 overhang seats, giving a total of 614. This is caused by larger parties winning additional single-member districts above the totals determined by their proportional party vote.

The key to understanding the current political situation in Germany, is to understand what happened after the last Federal Elections in 2005. The Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, called a motion of no confidence in his own government after the SPD lost the state of North Rhine-Westphalia. This defeat gave the CDU and the FDP a working majority in the Bundesrat.

Early federal elections in Germany can only take place after the dissolution of the Bundestag by the President of Germany, since the constitution forbids the Bundestag dissolving itself. The President can dissolve it only after the Chancellor loses a vote on a motion of confidence. The Federal Constitutional Court ruled in a similar situation in 1983 that Chancellors may not ask the President for the Bundestag’s dissolution merely for the sake of their desire for an early election; they have to have a real problem getting a majority for his legislation. Many observers agree that Schröder met this requirement, since a number of left-wing SPD delegates had expressed great reservations about Chancellor Schröder’s labour reform and welfare reform programme. However, only days before the vote, the coalition had passed a number of bills with no dissenters, indicating strong support for the Chancellor within the coalition. After urging members to abstain on the vote, Chancellor Schröder purposely lost a vote of confidence in the Bundestag on July 1 by 296 to 151. On July 21 President Horst Köhler dissolved the Bundestag and paved the way for the early election on September 18.

The Green member of parliament Werner Schulz – who, in a much-cited speech on the day of the motion of confidence, had criticised the deliberate loss of the motion as “farcical” and likened the Bundestag’s obedience to Schröder to behaviour typical of the German Democratic Republic Volkskammer – and the SPD member of parliament Jelena Hoffmann jointly filed a constitutional complaint in the Federal Constitutional Court. The Court rejected the complaint on August 25, ruling as valid the President’s decision to dissolve the Bundestag, thereby giving the green light for the early elections on September 18 and ending speculation that Schröder would have to step down or lead a “lame duck” government.

The court rejected similar challenges from smaller parties.

Early election polls during summer 2005 from 6 organizations showed a solid lead for the CDU/CSU with a share of the vote ranging between 41% and 43%, and the SPD trailing at between 32% and 34%. The polls further showed the FDP, a possible coalition partner for the conservatives, at between 6.5% and 8%, and the Greens, the current coalition partner for the SPD, between 6% and 8%. Most polls indicated a likely majority for a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition. As for other parties, those polls which explicitly included the PDS-WASG electoral alliance showed it above the 5% hurdle at between 7% and 8.5%. No poll showed any other parties, including far-right parties, near 5%, although far-right parties have in the past sometimes polled below their actual support due to unwillingness by voters to admit their support.

In early August support for Angela Merkel declined considerably. Reasons for this included conflicts about the election program in and between the conservative parties (the CDU and the CSU), and arguments with their preferred coalition partner, the FDP, as well as embarrassing gaffes. At one point the media criticized Merkel for confusing net and gross income figures during a campaign speech. Following this, polls suggested that the CDU/CSU and FDP would only win 48% of votes between them, and thus would not be able to form a government. Further damage occurred when two prominent CDU/CSU candidates, Jörg Schönbohm and the CSU leader Edmund Stoiber, made insulting remarks about East Germans. These remarks not only alienated voters in Eastern Germany but also made some question the CDU/CSU’s confidence in Merkel, as she is herself grew up in the East.

On Sunday September 4, Schröder and Merkel met in a head-to-head debate broadcast by four of Germany’s major private and public television networks. Although most commentators gave the initial edge to Merkel, polls soon showed that the general public disagreed and ranked Schröder the clear winner. Later analysis suggested that, in particular, Merkel’s support for a flat-tax proposal by Paul Kirchhof, the shadow Finance Minister, further undermined her credibility on economic affairs and gave the impression that the CDU’s economic reforms would only benefit the very rich.

Germany went to the polls on September 18, 2005. Voters in one constituency in Dresden had to wait until October 2 to vote, in order to allow the reprinting of ballot-papers after the death of the National Democratic Party candidate on September 8.

The Results: Constituency Vote

Party: Vote% (Seats)
CDU: 32,6 (106)
CSU: 8,2 (44)
SPD: 38,4 (145)
FDP: 4,7 (0)
Die Linkspartei.PDS: 8,0 (3)
Bündnis ’90/Die Grünen: 5,4 (1)

The Results: List Vote
Party: Vote% (Seats)
CDU: 27,8 (74)
CSU: 7,4 (2)
SPD: 34,2 (77)
FDP: 9,8 (61)
Die Linkspartei.PDS: 8,7 (51)
Bündnis ’90/Die Grünen: 8,4 (50)

Thease results left the SDP/Grüne combination on 273 seats and the CDU/FDP on 287 seats. Neither side had a majority (this reminds me of the recent election results in Hessen!). There were a number of choices availible to the parties. SPD, FDP and Greens called the “traffic light” coalition, after the colours used to symbolize those parties: red, yellow and green, respectively. The SPD governed in coalition with the Greens from 1998 to 2005, and in coalition with the FDP from 1969 to 1982. CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens called the “Jamaica” coalition after those parties’ colours: black, yellow and green, respectively, which colours also feature in the Jamaican national flag. The CDU/CSU governed in coalition with the FDP from 1949 to 1966 and from 1982 to 1998; but neither party had worked with the Greens in federal government. CDU/CSU and SPD a Grand Coalition. The CDU/CSU and SPD previously governed in a Grand Coalition from 1966 to 1969.

Neither of the major parties were willing to negiate with Die Linkspartei.

Party-political differences and intense personal hostility between many of the party leaders (particularly between Schröder and Merkel, but also between Schröder and Lafontaine) made negotiations problematic. All party leaders had previously ruled out anything except the usual coalitions. After the election, FDP leaders stated that they would rather remain in opposition than form a coalition with the SPD and the Greens, and Joschka Fischer dismissed the possibility of a Jamaica coalition, saying, “Can you really see Angela Merkel and Edmund Stoiber sitting round the table in dreadlocks? This is more our style. It’s impossible”. Any form of compromise looked to require a change in leadership of one of the main parties.

Despite some prominent members publicly blaming Merkel for its poor showing, the CDU/CSU confirmed her as leader on September 20. On September 22, SPD members began musing that the political system should consider the CDU and the CSU as separate entities rather than as a single parliamentary faction. In such a scenario, the SPD would be the largest party in the Bundestag and thus, they argued, an SPD member should become Chancellor in any Grand Coalition. One SPD legislator indicated he planned to introduce a motion in the Bundestag explicitly defining the CDU and the CSU as separate parties. The Greens rejected coalition with the CDU/CSU after talks broke down. The CDU/CSU pressed their case for the Chancellery after victory in the delayed vote in Dresden, and ahead of talks with the SPD; the SPD maintained their own claim, but Schröder indicated that he would step aside if his party wished it.

Finally, on October 10, officials from the CDU/CSU and the SPD announced that negotiations to form a Grand Coalition had succeeded. Angela Merkel would become Chancellor and the sixteen seats in the new cabinet (including the Chancellery) would go equally to each side, with both the CDU/CSU and the SPD each having eight posts. The SPD would control eight ministeries including the important roles of finance and foreign affairs, while the CDU/CSU would control six ministeries as well as providing the Chancellor and the Director of the Federal Chancellery (the Chancellor’s Chief of Staff), who would also hold the position of Minister for Special Affairs. Gerhard Schröder would reportedly retire from politics.

Detailed negotiations on the formation of the new government continued into November, with Edmund Stoiber of the CSU withdrawing from the proposed cabinet to continue as Minister-president of Bavaria. All three parties held conferences on November 14 (the CDU in Berlin, the CSU in Munich and the SPD in Karlsruhe) which voted to approve the deal. The majority of CDU/CSU and SPD delegates in the newly-assembled Bundestag elected Merkel as Chancellor on 22 November. [12] 397 members of the Bundestag voted for Merkel, indicating that 51 members from one or more of the SPD, CDU or CSU did not support the coalition deal.

So thats where German Politics is at now. The next few posts will start on the Bundeslande and I may return to do posts on the Bundesrat and maybe the Basic Law

German Politics: Bundesregierung (Federal Government) and the Introducing the Political Parties


This is the first in a series of posts on German Politics. (Yikes thats two series at the same time!)

The German Parliament has two houses the Bundresrat (Upper House representing the Bundesland) and the Bundestag (Lower House). The party system has been dominated by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD).

The current government is a grand coalition of the CDU/CSU and the SPD. The current Cabinet is as follows:

  • Federal Chancellor:
    Dr. Angela Merkel (CDU)
  • Federal Foreign Minister and Vice-Chancellor :
    Dr. Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD)
  • Federal Minister for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety:
    Sigmar Gabriel (SPD)
  • Federal Minister of Economics and Technology:
    Michael Glos (CSU)
  • Federal Minister of Defence:
    Dr. Franz Josef Jung (CDU)
  • Federal Minister for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth:
    Dr. Ursula von der Leyen (CDU)
  • Federal Minister for Special Tasks and Head of the Chancellery:
    Dr. Thomas de Maizière (CDU)
  • Federal Minister of the Interior:
    Dr. Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU)
  • Federal Minister of Education and Research:
    Dr. Annette Schavan (CDU)
  • Federal Minister of Health:
    Ulla Schmidt (SPD)
  • Federal Minister of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection:
    Horst Seehofer (CSU)
  • Federal Minister of Finance:
    Peer Steinbrück (SPD)
  • Federal Minister of Labour and Social Affairs:
    Olaf Scholz (SPD)
  • Federal Minister of Transport, Building and Urban Affairs: Wolfgang Tiefensee (SPD)
  • Federal Minister of Economic Cooperation and Development: Heidemarie Wieczorek-Zeul (SPD)
  • Federal Minister of Justice:
    Brigitte Zypries (SPD)

The Parties
CDU/CSU The Union
The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union of Bavaria define themselves as sister parties and form a common grouping in the Bundestag called (informally) “the Union”. On issues of national importance and in national election campaigns the CDU and CSU closely coordinate their activities, but they remain legally and organizationally separate parties. The differences between the CDU and the somewhat more conservative CSU sometimes lead to friction between them. The relationship of CDU to CSU has historic parallels to previous Christian Democratic parties in Germany, with the Catholic Centre Party as the national Catholic party in Germany with the Bavarian People’s Party as the local Bavarian variant. The CDU is member of the European Peoples Party (as does Fine Gael!)

SPD

The Social Democratic Party of Germany is Germany’s oldest political party and its largest in terms of membership. The SPD advocates the modernization of the economy to meet the demands of globalization, but it also stresses the need to address the social needs of workers and society’s disadvantaged.

FPD

The Free Democratic Party is a liberal political party in Germany. The party’s ideology combines beliefs in individual liberty, in a state or government “that is as small as possible and as large as necessary.” It promotes a market economy, with traditional features of the German social welfare system. The FDP is currently the third-largest party in the Bundestag.

Die Linke

Die Linke (The Left) is a German political party that came into being on 16 June 2007 as a merger of The Left Party.PDS and Labour and Social Justice – The Electoral Alternative (WASG). Die Linke aims for democratic socialism, which differs from the definition given by the SPD. In accordance to socialist tradition, the capitalist system of Germany is questioned as well as current neoliberal concepts. As a platform of left politics in the wake of globalization, The Left includes many different factions, ranging from communists to left-leaning social democrats.

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

The Alliance ’90/The Greens, the German Green party, is a political party in Germany whose regional predecessors were founded in the late 1970s as part of the new social movements. The party was formally inaugurated on the weekend of January 17-18, 1980, by 1,000 delegates to its first convention in Karlsruhe, West Germany, as “Die Grünen”. It is one of the oldest, although not the oldest, and so far the most politically successful of the world’s many green parties. In 1989 and 1990 numerous civil rights groups in East Germany combined to form Bündnis 90, which merged with “Die Grünen” in 1993.

Election Results: Hessen (Hesse) unt Niedersachsen (Lower Saxony)

Update: Looking for the Results of the 2009 Election? See here.

They are fast with the results here in Germany (without electronic voting I may add!)

The results are bad for the CDU. They are down in both states which are seen as the test waters for next years federal elections. The results are as follows

Hessen (Hesse)

Percentages (Seats)
CDU: 36,8 (42)
SPD: 36,7 (42)
FDP: 9,4 (11)
Grüne: 8,0 (9)
Der Linke: 5,1 (6)

My View
This is a defeat for the CDU and Roland Koch in particular. The CDU lost 12% of the vote. The gainers in the election were: SPD up 7%, FDP up 1,5% and Der Linke who passed the 5% threshold on their first outing in Hessen leaving them with 5,1% of the vote!

There is a 110 seats in the state parliament and neither the two major parties and their favoured coaltion have a majority (CDU/FDP:53 seats, SPD/Grüne 51 seats). This means it will more then likely be a CDU/SPD coalition. Who will be Minister-President is a different question.

Niedersachsen (Lower Saxony)

Percentages (Seats)
CDU: 42,5(68)
SPD: 30,3 (48)
FDP: 8,2 (13)
Grüne: 8,0 (12)
Der Linke: 7,1 (11)

The CDU have also suffered losses here down 6% for the last election in 2003. The SPD is also down 3% of the vote. The gainers here were FDP up 0,1% Grüne up 0,4% and Der Linke up 6,6%. Though the FDP and Grüne incrsead their vote share, they both are down two seats.

My View

Der Linke are the winners in this state. They surpassed the 5% threshold on their second outing in this state. Neither party will do a deal with them, but if they become enough of a force by the Federal Elections next year then both parties might change their tune. (Maybe not the CDU!) The Parliemant here has 152 seats and the current coalition (CDU/FDP) have enough seats to continue to govern so Christian Wulff will stay on as Minister-President.