The Count 2011!

 

DUBLIN, IRELAND - OCTOBER 03:  An election wor...
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Its all over. The candidates can lie in this morning as its now the turn of the political hacks who all across the country will be turning up to the count centres across the 43 constituencies to start tallying the Presidential Election.

The boxes will be opened at 9am when the votes will be sorted and tallied. Then the Votes for the presidential election will be sorted. Once sorted the votes will be counted and the result sent to Dublin. We wont have a first count result until all constituencies have reported. We then move on to the second count etc until a President is elected.

Once we have a President elected, the attention will then turn to the referendums. I am assuming they will do in numerical order with the 29th Amendment on Judges Pay (#JPREF) first followed by the 30th Amendment on Oireachtas Investigations (#OIREF).

After the referendum results have been announced the count in the Dublin West by-election will get under way and bring the counting to a close.

I myself will be in the Concert Hall in Cork City Hall helping out with the tallying in Cork South Central (#CSC) and Cork North Central (#CNC).

I will be posting updates on twitter! So keep an eye on the #aras11 and find your constituency tag here

Diary of a Canvasser: Its all over

Generic FG Poster

So that last week of the flew by and before I knew it I was voting an tallying the results! I had a very long weekend awaiting results, but for a change in a national election, the results had me and others shocked. We knew Fine Gael were going to do well, but we didnt think we were going to do *this* well.

It was amazing to see Fine Gael Candidates who I had met over the years topping the poll and others coming in closely with their team to show that Fine Gael really can manage the vote.

In Cork South Central I was delighted that Simon Coveney and Jerry Buttimer were elected to the 31st Dáil. I was disappointed that Deirdre Clune lost her seat, but we also knew that Michael McGrath of Fianna Fail was going to be a hard candidate to beat.

We have no time to rest on our laurels. Fianna Fail are going to be fighting back and we need to be ready for them for when the local elections come around in 2014.

I wonder who I will be canvassing for then!

 

Preparing for the Count

Election Poster

So tonight its all about the preparation for the tally tomorrow. I have to be in the concert hall in Cork City Hall.  I shall be doing the tally for Cork South Central but Cork North Central will be counted in the same hall. I will be trying to keep people updated on both counts on twitter. Keep an eye on the #tags #CNC and #CSC

Check out Mamanpoulet.com for more ways to follow the counts tomorrow.

Also there will be a first for a tally when the tally in Cork South Central will be updated online.

It may be a long day tomorrow, but let see what happens.

Also the RTÉ exit poll will be announced at 8am on Morning Ireland. That should give us an idea of how the counts will progress.

Diary of a Canvasser: Dawn to Dusk (and beyond!)

Election Poster

I have finished another week on the door steps and this week saw me canvassing for Jerry Buttimer and Deridre Clune.

On Monday we were out canvassing in Ballinlough for Jerry Buttimer and we got a good response. I got my first local issue on the door that night. Someone was giving out about City Council and the pothole outside their house. This was no ordinary pothole though! It was huge! So she had to complain! Thankfully Enda had decided to turn up to the debate on Monday so there was no questioning like the last time.

On Tuesday I was out in Ballinlough, again out canvassing for Jerry. This was the day that the Irish Language Policy really became an issue on the doors. I only got it the once, and I managed to canvass that vote as Gaeilge! I was very proud of myself! Enda’s debate performance was raised and it certainly impressed people.

Yesterday was my longest day of canvassing yet. It started with being collected at 7:45am by Jerry to canvass early morning traffic! This is a hard canvass as it can be difficult to interact with people, but people were receptive and will to take the literature.

After a coffee break we were down in Mahon at lunch time. It was a hit and miss area as a lot of homes were empty with the time of day and all that. But people were quite open to being engaged with. After another coffee break in Mahon Community Centre we headed out to Douglas to do a few estates. At this point I was drenched to the bone and my knee was acting up. I did canvass a number of houses, and got a good response, (limping always brings out the sympathy!) by the end of the canvass I was told to stay in the car cause I was in too much pain!

After going home and drying and dosing myself I headed out again (glutton for punishment I am!) This time to Donnybrook with Deirdre Clune. We got an amazing response and quite a number of people wanted to engage with us. Which is good. There was questions on one-party government, jobs, public sector, tax, education and student nurses. A really interesting canvass. I finally finished canvassing at 9pm! Thats makes it at about 13 hours of canvassing! Not to be done in rain I will advise! I have at least 2 more full days planned next week! Its going to be a long week!

Tomorrow is the last week of canvassing and it will be a case of canvassing up until the last moment. So dont be surprised if there is no update until election day! and remember be nice to canvassers!

Irish Examiner\Red C – Cork South Central Poll

Election Poster

The 2nd constituency in Cork to polled this week after Cork North Central’s poll on Monday for the Irish Times.

The Irish Examiner commissioned a phone survey of 500 voters in Cork South Central. The results are as follows:

  • Simon Coveney (FG) 19%;
  • Micheál Martin (FF) 18%;
  • Ciarán Lynch (Lab) 14%;
  • Michael McGrath (FF) 9%;
  • Jerry Buttimer (FG) 9%;
  • Deirdre Clune (FG) 8%;
  • Chris O’Leary (SF) 8%;
  • Paula Desmond (Lab) 5%;
  • Michael Finn (Ind) 5%;
  • Dan Boyle (GP) 3%;
  • David McCarthy (Ind) on 2%

A transfer analysis was also done and it shows that the following would be elected:

  • Simon Coveny (FG)
  • Micheal Martin (FF)
  • Ciaran Lynch (Lab)
  • Deridre Clune (FG)
  • Jerry Buttimer (FG)

Its an interesting result, but I wonder will it pan out that way on friday week?

If Fine Gael are to have a hope of one party government they will need three seats here in Cork South Central. But the last seat will go down to fight, it will be neck and neck between Buttimer or Clune and McGrath, perhaps with the last two candidates being elected without reaching the quota? I have a feeling we will be in for a long count in Cork South Central.

UPDATE: The full report is here

Irish Independent\Milward Brown Poll 16th February

Election Poster

Another week and another poll. Tomorrow sees a poll in the Irish Independent my Milward Brown. It has topline figures as follows:

  • Fine Gael 38 (+8)
  • Fianna Fail 12 (-4)
  • Labour 23 (-1)
  • Sinn Fein 10 (-3)
  • Greens 1
  • Others 16 (-1)

This further cements the lead taken by Fine Gael in the polls. It is also further bad news for Fianna Fail who are really beginning to hit rock bottom. Well they hope they are! The greens have really become an irrelevance in this election as with 1% they would be lucky if they were in the toss up for any seat.

Using these polling figures Adrian Kavanagh has calculated the seats as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 13,
  • Fine Gael 78,
  • Labour 42,
  • Green Party 0,
  • Sinn Fein 13,
  • Others 20

Around 10 left leaning independents and 10 right leaning independents would be elected. If things keep building behind Fine Gael it could definately be looking at one party government.

The poll of polls stands at:

  • Fianna Fail 15.5
  • Fine Gael 35
  • Labour 22
  • Greens 2
  • Sinn Fein 12
  • Other 14

Still a lot to play for in the last week..

In other poll news I am told a Cork South Central poll will be in the Examiner tomorrow. And also there was a Evening Herald for Dublin this evening which had the following figures:

  • Labour 31,
  • Fine Gael 29,
  • Ind 16
  • Fianna Fail 10
  • Sinn Fein 11,
  • Green 3

Its going to be a long few days of polls I think!

    Diary of a Canvasser: 3 Nights, 3 Candidates

    Cork South Central (Dáil Éireann constituency)
    Image via Wikipedia

    This week I have been sharing my time with the three Fine Gael candidates in Cork South Central. I find that is the best and easiest thing to do. It also broadens your canvassing experience!

    Monday

    So on Monday I was out with Deirdre Clune. We were canvassing in Donnybrook in Douglas. I was paired with Fiona and it seemed that we got every nice person in the estate! We had lovely chats with people who wanted to talk about disability, social welfare and of course the leadership of Fine Gael, which is a bit of a recurring issue!

    There was one house with a bunch of lads and we ended up talking to a few of them and one of the was a Fine Gaeler from Wexford! So all in all a good canvass with a good response and again, people seemed more interested in national issues. That as I have said previously is a good thing in my book.

    Tuesday

    On Tuesday, after we finally found out when the election would actually be held, I went canvassing with Jerry Buttimer in Turners Cross. Here I was invited into a house for the first time! (yes, it was someone I knew but still!) The reaction was very positive towards change.. I would hate to have been a Fianna Failer knocking on any of those doors. Again the issues that came up were national issues. Higher Education funding and Social Welfare policy was brought up on doors and people were genuinely interested in the policies that Fine Gael had. I must say I am enjoying this campaign!

    Wednesday

    On Wednesday I went out with Simon Coveney in Ballyphehane. This is an area I knew well as it is where I went to school and have plenty of friends living in the area. It was also a fairly well established area. Again I noticed it was mainly national issues with the Economy being the major issue. Another thing I noticed was the number of people who did not know who they were going to vote for. This was extremely true of elderly people who said they would have normally voted for Fianna Fáil and now don’t know who to vote for. Its going to be interesting to see if they will change their votes on election day.

    So all in all 3 nights which were very interesting and I didnt mix up candidate names too often! I am off to Paris now for the weekend so I won’t be on the canvass  trail until next Tuesday.

    Diary of a Canvasser: Winter Election Campaign

    Cork South Central (Dáil Éireann constituency)
    Image via Wikipedia

    During the Local and European Elections back in 2009 I tried to keep a bit of Canvass Diary to chart the mood and feelings and experiences on the Canvass Trial. For the upcoming General Election I plan to try and post about what is happening on the ground, where ever I end up canvassing!

    So my General Election campaign started today with a canvass for Senator Jerry Buttimer in Cork South Central. We started in an estate in Grange which is the Carrigaline Electoral District.

    The first thing I noticed tonight, is that the following is required by anyone going to canvass in this weather;

    • heavy jacket
    • hat
    • gloves (preferable fingerless, for seperating leaflets, taken notes and knocking on doors)
    • scarf
    • thermal underwear

    Then you may stay warm! That or you end up doing jumping jacks as you wait for the candidate to catch up.

    So how was the canvass? Well I was surprised we didn’t get a lot of “your starting earlier” comments. A lot of people were glad we weren’t Fianna Fail, others didn’t want to deal with any politicians.

    The mood in general was fairly pro-change. Whether that will translate to Fine Gael votes or votes for other parties is the part that is hard to tell.

    Personally, I was heartened by the response on the doors. People are annoyed and upset over the government and the bailout, but they are optimistic. They can see us getting out of this, and I hope that they are right.

    Lets see how this pans out during the rest of the campaign. In the meantime I am off to defrost my fingers and warm up in general! I am not looking forward to canvassing in the snow if it gets that bad!!

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    Cork South Central

    Cork South Central (Dáil Éireann constituency)
    Image via Wikipedia
    Over the years this blog has payed a great deal of attention to the constituency of Cork South Central. This mainly due to the fact that I am from that particular constituency and for most of my life, I have lived, studied and worked in the Constituency. The Evening Echo had an internal Fine Gael poll at the end of last week. The results made some interesting reading, the figures in brackets are the results from 2007.
    Simon Coveney (FG) 15% (9.93%)
    Ciaran Lynch (Lab) 14.5% (9.25%)
    Micheal Martin (FF) 14% (19.01)
    Deirdre Clune (FG) 12% (9.72%)
    Paula Desmond (Lab) 11.5% (did not contest)
    Jerry Buttimer (FG) 8% (8.77%)
    Michael McGrath (FF) 8% (16.7%)
    Des Cahill (FG) 4% (did not contest)
    Green Party (Dan Boyle) 4% (8.37%)
    Sinn Fein (Henry Cremin) 4% (5.11%)
    The poll was taken before Cllr Laura McGonigle announced her candidacy.
    While it is interesting to see Coveney topping the poll, it is not very surprising. After narrowly beating John Dennehy for the last seat in 2007, Simon has put in a lot of effort and it seems it has paid off. Clune to is polling well. Ciaran Lynch has proven himself an able performer and and will do well and may also get elected on the first count along with Simon Coveney. Paula Desmonds votes though are phenomenal. It will be interesting to see if she can carry it off. She will of course be helped over the line with transfers from Lynch and possible from Sinn Fein and Green transfers.
    FF’s Micheal McGrath is in serious trouble under this poll as his vote is down nearly 50%. Martin will no longer have a huge number of transfers to bring a running mate over the line. Not that McGrath needed that in 2007. So he is in an uphill struggle.
    The green party’s vote is also down by 50% so they have no hope of regaining the seat lost by Dan Boyle in 2007.
    I do not understand why Des Chaill was included as he may have taken votes from Clune, Coveney and Buttimer in the poll. I wonder are FG looking at running four candidates. Personnally I hope not. As if Coveney gets in on the 1st count his transfers could bring Clune over the line (if she dosen’t manage it herself) and maybe put Buttimer in contention for the last seat with Desmond.
    Fianna Fail have certainly lost a seat in Cork South Central. McGrath will put in a strong fight, but brand FF have suffered and it will be McGarth who will suffer the consequences in the election. Fine Gael will certainly win two seats with a possibility of a third fighting it out with Labour for that last seat.
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    5 Candidates for Cork South Central FG Convention

    Cork South Central (Dáil Éireann constituency)
    Image via Wikipedia

    I received a letter today from Cllr. Laura McGonigle announcing her candidacy for the Fine Gael Dáil Convention. This brings to five the number of declared candidates. Fine Gael is planning to run 3 candidates in the next General Election.

    The other declared candidates are sitting TD’s Simon Coveney and Deirdre Clune, local Senator Jerry Buttimer and two Councillors from the South East Ward, Des Cahill and Laura McGonigle.

    In the last General Election Fine Gael got 28.42% of the first preference vote. According to PoliticalReform.ie Fine Gael will get between 26.9% in the Ipsos MRBI poll to 34.3% in the Red C poll in Cork South Central. Fine Gael could take three seats depending on transfers, if the support is closer to the Red C poll.

    The question is what 3 will be standing. The sitting TD’s obviously have a really good chance of being re-selected. The question will be who will be the third. Jerry Buttimer has a very good chance of being the representative as neither Clune or Coveney are based in the West of the constituency while Cahill and McGonigle are based in the East, as are Clune and Coveney. Jerry also has the advantage of having being tested in the last General Election. In that time he got 8.77% of the vote and lasted till the 4th count.

    Des Cahill faced his first election in the local elections and topped the poll in Cork South East ward with 15.48% of the vote. Laura McGonigle who was also elected on the first count in the first count in 2009 in the same ward with 14.58%  of the vote. Laura was also facing her first election to the council having been co-opted to replace Deirdre Clune after the Dual mandate was abolished.

    I think the line up for Cork South Central will be as follows:

    • Deirdre Clune
    • Simon Coveney
    • Jerry Buttimer

    While I think it would great for Laura McGonigle to be on the ticket due to her youth, enthusiasm and experience, I don’t think she will make this time.

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