Over the years this blog has payed a great deal of attention to the constituency of Cork South Central. This mainly due to the fact that I am from that particular constituency and for most of my life, I have lived, studied and worked in the Constituency. The Evening Echo had an internal Fine Gael poll at the end of last week. The results made some interesting reading, the figures in brackets are the results from 2007.
Simon Coveney (FG) 15% (9.93%)
Ciaran Lynch (Lab) 14.5% (9.25%)
Micheal Martin (FF) 14% (19.01)
Deirdre Clune (FG) 12% (9.72%)
Paula Desmond (Lab) 11.5% (did not contest)
Jerry Buttimer (FG) 8% (8.77%)
Michael McGrath (FF) 8% (16.7%)
Des Cahill (FG) 4% (did not contest)
Green Party (Dan Boyle) 4% (8.37%)
Sinn Fein (Henry Cremin) 4% (5.11%)
The poll was taken before Cllr Laura McGonigle announced her candidacy.
While it is interesting to see Coveney topping the poll, it is not very surprising. After narrowly beating John Dennehy for the last seat in 2007, Simon has put in a lot of effort and it seems it has paid off. Clune to is polling well. Ciaran Lynch has proven himself an able performer and and will do well and may also get elected on the first count along with Simon Coveney. Paula Desmonds votes though are phenomenal. It will be interesting to see if she can carry it off. She will of course be helped over the line with transfers from Lynch and possible from Sinn Fein and Green transfers.
FF’s Micheal McGrath is in serious trouble under this poll as his vote is down nearly 50%. Martin will no longer have a huge number of transfers to bring a running mate over the line. Not that McGrath needed that in 2007. So he is in an uphill struggle.
The green party’s vote is also down by 50% so they have no hope of regaining the seat lost by Dan Boyle in 2007.
I do not understand why Des Chaill was included as he may have taken votes from Clune, Coveney and Buttimer in the poll. I wonder are FG looking at running four candidates. Personnally I hope not. As if Coveney gets in on the 1st count his transfers could bring Clune over the line (if she dosen’t manage it herself) and maybe put Buttimer in contention for the last seat with Desmond.
Fianna Fail have certainly lost a seat in Cork South Central. McGrath will put in a strong fight, but brand FF have suffered and it will be McGarth who will suffer the consequences in the election. Fine Gael will certainly win two seats with a possibility of a third fighting it out with Labour for that last seat.