US Midterm Elections

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So Tuesday is the first electoral test faced by President Obama, since his election in 2008. That year also saw much celebration by the Democrats as they won many seats in the Senate and House of Representatives as well as a number of state houses. This year that could change. The Republicans look set to win a number of Senate and House seats, this could be because of or despite of the Tea Party.

Senate

There are a number of very interesting Senate races this year. They are mainly in the west. Two that I will be watching closely will be Carly Fiorina’s bid to unseat Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer in California. Most of the polling have Boxer retaining her seat, but not by a very wide margin. Most give Ma’am Boxer a margin of between 3 and 8%, so this could be an interesting race.

The other race I will be watching closely will be Senate Majority Leader’s Harry Reid’s attempt to hold his seat against Republican Sharron Angle in Nevada. This is a loss that will be a great victory for the republicans, but if he hangs on, there wont be much for the Republicans to gloat about.

Of couse their are other races to watch. They include the race for Obama’s old seat in Illinois. It looks like that will be a very close one. Republican Mark Kirk looks set to win the seat and defeat the Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, as he has fallen behind in recent polling.

Other races that will be interesting are Florida, West Virgina and Alaska. It will be interesting to see how Christine O’Donnell does in Delaware. The big question here is, will Republicans get a majority? I think they will get a bare majority of 51 to 49.

House

The US House of Representatives is always interesting as the entire house is up for re-election. Here there is set to be a big change. The current state of play is the Democrats have 256 seats and the Republicans have 179. The Republicans need to gain 39 seats to gain control. Most forecast have them winning 40-60 seats so it is expected to see a good few seats change hands. And of course the results of this election will give us a better view of Democratic’s position across the country.

Some of the races to watch are Arkansas’s 1st District, Delaware’s At-Large District, Florida’s 2nd, 8th and 22nd Districts and Idaho’s 1st District.

Governors

39 state governorships are up for grabs also on Tuesday. A few of these are very interesting. In Rhode Island, independent Lincoln Chafee is leading the race to become senator. He was a former Republican senator but endorsed Obama in 2008 and this has led to an interesting race.

In Vermont, Republican Brian Dubie and Democrat Peter Shumlin are in a close battle for the Governorship. In current polling there is a 1% gap!

In Florida, Democrat and Chief Finance Officer of Florida, Alex Sink is locked in battle with Republican and Health Care Activist Rick Scott. In some polls there is no difference between them!

Other states that will be interesting to watch include Obama’s home state of Illinois, where the Republicans could gain. Other states I will be watching Ohio, Oregon and Minnesota.

So I will be getting up early on Wednesday morning (as I have work) to catch up with what has happened and see how it may pan out. Should I make predictions? Maybe tomorrow!

Have you got any tips before I make them?

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Super Tuesday: States with final Results 10am CET

Heres a rundown of full results as at 10am CET

Deleware
Dems: Obama wins here with 53% of the vote leaving Clinton behind on 43%. In the important delegate race, Obama gets 9 to Clintons

Reps: McCain wins here with 45% of the vote giving him 18 delegates. Romney comes second with a 33% of the vote and Huckabee comes third with 15%. The important threshold for delegates in 15%.

Idaho
Dems: Obama streaks ahead here and wins with 79% of the caucus goers supporting him. Thet gives him 15 delegates to Cintons 3 (And 17% of the vote!)

Kansas
Dmes: Another cuacus victory for Obama this time giving him 74% of the vote and 23 delegates. Clinton has 26% of the vote and 9 delegates.

Missouri
Dems: the smallest of margins sperates the democratic contenders in this state. Obama and Clinton have evenly split the delegates between. In the actual vote Obama won by 1% leading Clinton 49% to 48%.

Reps: McCain did a similar feat here. He beat Huckabee by 1% and Romney by 4%! The results were McCain 33%, Huckabee 32%, Romney, 29%. Is Huckabee making himself the prosective VP candidate?

Monatana
Reps: Caucus goers here preffered Romney with 38% supporting him. McCain (22%) and Huckabee (15%) were pushed to third and fourth respectively as Ron Paul came second with 25% of the support.

North Dakota
Dems: Again caucus goers supported Obama giving him 61% of the vote and 8 delegates. Meanwhile Clinton got 31% and 5 delegates.

Reps: Here caucus goers again supported Romney giving him 36% of the vote. McCain came second with 23%, Ron Paul third with 21% just pushing Huckabee into fourth on 20%.

Oklahoma
Dems: Here Clinton wins by a margin of 14%! She gets 55% of the vote getting 24 of all those important delegates. Obama gets 31% and gets 14 delegates.

Reps: McCain beats Huckabee to win this state with 17% of the vote to Huckabees 33%. Romeny comes third with 25% of the vote. McCain gets 32 delegates to Huckabess 6.

Tennessee
Dems: Clinton wins here on 54% of the vote compared with Obama’s 41%. This leaves her with 34 delegates and Obama with 21.

Reps: Huckabee here beats McCain to win 34% of the vote and 12 Delegates. McCain gets 32% and 7 delegates. Romney comes third with 24% and 3 delegates.

West Virginia
Reps: One of the tighest caucus results I’ve seen. Huckabee edges out Romney by 5%. He has the support of 52% of state delegates compared to Romney’s 47%. McCain got 1% of the vote!

Will put up further results when I get them.