Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2011

Northern Ireland Assembly logo
Image via Wikipedia

This year the people of Northern Ireland will go to the polls to elect 108 MLA’s to the Northern Ireland Assembly on May 5th.

The current standings of the parties are as follows:

  • Democratic Unionist Party: 36
  • Sinn Fein: 27
  • Ulster Unionist Party: 18
  • Social Democratic and Labour Party: 16
  • Alliance Party: 7
  • Green Party: 1
  • Independents: 5

The campaign is well under way since the Assembly was dissolved on 24th of March and a number of issues have been raised.

Issues raised have been health, education, policing, and the possibility of a Sinn Fein First Minister. This may be seen as scaremongering, but it is a possibility.

I will be following the election as it progresses. Below is some of the Party Election Broadcast that have been shown.


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Sinn Fein

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Green Party

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Have I missed any? Let me know.


If the UK Election had taken place under the List System

British House of Commons.
Image via Wikipedia

One of the electoral systems that is currently used in the UK for European Parliament Elections, London Assembly, Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament elections is currently being ignored in the talk about a new electoral system for the UK. So I did a little experiment with the Election Calculus Simulator. I used the different nations of the UK as the basis of the constituencies. (For purpose of these I ignored the votes for others, all vote figures were taken from the BBC website)

So lets take a look at the results.

England (533 Seats)

List System:

  • Conservatives (40.0%):215
  • Labour (28.4%):152
  • Lib Dem (24.5%):131
  • UKIP (3.5%):18
  • BNP (2.1%):11
  • Green (1.0%): 5
  • English Democrats (0.3%):1

Actual results:

  • Conservatives: 297
  • Labour: 191
  • Liberal Democrats: 43
  • Green: 1

Scotland (59 Seats)

List System:

  • Labour (42.2%): 26
  • SNP (20.0%): 12
  • Lib Dem (19.0%): 11
  • Conservative (16.8%): 10

Actual Result:

  • Labour: 41
  • Lib Dem: 11
  • SNP: 6
  • Conservatives: 1

Wales (40 Seats)

List System:

  • Labour (36.9%): 16
  • Conservatives (26.5%): 11
  • Liberal Dems (20.5%): 8
  • Plaid Cymru (11.5%): 4
  • UKIP (2.5%): 1

Actual Result:

  • Labour: 26
  • Conservative: 8
  • Lib Dem: 3
  • Plaid Cymru: 3

Northern Ireland (18 seats)

List System:

  • SF (27.5%): 6
  • DUP (26.9%): 5
  • SDLP (17.7%): 3
  • UUP (16.3%): 3
  • Alliance (6.8%): 1

Actual Result:

  • DUP: 8
  • SF :5
  • SDLP: 3
  • Alliance 1
  • Others: 1

This would have translated to a parliament made of the following:

  • Conservatives:  236
  • Labour: 194
  • Liberal Democrats: 150
  • UKIP: 19
  • SNP: 12
  • BNP: 11
  • SF: 6
  • Greens: 5
  • DUP: 5
  • Plaid: 4
  • SDLP: 3
  • UUP: 3
  • Alliance: 1
  • English Democrats: 1

Now that would be an interesting Parliament!

I doubt that the List sytem would be used for the House of Commons, but it could be a possibility for the House of Lords. That makes it all the more interesting!

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UK Election

UK 2010 election: actual results for comparison
Image by oledoe via Flickr

I know I haven’t blogged about the UK General Election since before it, that is because of two reasons. One is work and life in General and the other was I wanted to see how the coalition talks were going.

So as you know, the end results of the General Election were as follows:

  • Conservatives 306 (+97)
  • Labour 258 (-91)
  • Liberal Democrats 57 (-5)
  • DUP 8 (-1)
  • SNP 6 (NC)
  • Sinn Fein 5 (NC)
  • Plaid Cymru 3 (+1)
  • SDLP 3 (NC)
  • Green 1 (+1)
  • Alliance 1 (+1)

Conversely in the Local Elections in England, Labour were the winners in terms of increases, but the Conservatives still control the most councils. The Main results were as follows:

  • Conservatives suffered a net loss of 8 councils and lost 121 councillors.
  • Labour gained control of an extra 14 councils and gained 393 councillors
  • Liberal Democrats suffered a net loss of 3 councils and lost 119 councillors
  • Independents lost 106 seats
  • The British National Party lost 26 seats.

So looking back at my predictions how did i do?

Vote Share

The Conservatives will win the most votes, followed by the Liberal Democrats. Labour will come third.

Well I got the first place right. But thats it.


Conservaties will have about 270, Labour, 260, Liberal Democrats 90.

I was close on the Labour number as they ended up on 258. I was out on the other two.

Other Parties

Greens will win their first seat. My money is on Brighton Pavillion.


BNP will not win a seat.


UKIP will win two seats. Buckingham and one other

Wrong. They won none

SNP will increase their seats by 2

Wrong, they didnt increase their seats.

PC will also increase their seats by 2

Wrong, they only took an extra seat.

So it was an interesting at times election. I stayed up until 4am Friday morning and I was bored at times.

The negotiations between the Conservatives and Lib Dems are coming to a close as I type and it will be up to the parliamentary party of each party now.

I wonder where it will go. Full coalition or Supple and Confidence Pact? What do you think?

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