Cork North Central Bye-election Results

Below are the results of the Cork North Central Bye-election

Can’t see the table? Please click here

No Left/Far-Right Coalition for Austria

There is no way for a Social Democrat (SPÖ) and the Freedom Party (FPÖ) to form a coalition Government according to the Austrian Times. The final election results are as follows:

Social Democrats (SPÖ): 29.3 (35.3) – 57 MPs (68)
Austrians People’s Party (ÖVP): 26.0 (34.3) – 51 MPs (66)
Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ): 17.5 (11.0) – 34 MPs (21)
Alliance for the Future of Austria (BZÖ): 10.7 (4.1) – 21 MPs (7)
Grüne: 10.4 (11.1) – 20 MPs (19)
Liberal Forum (LIF): 2.1 (-) – 0 MPs (1)
Liste Fritz: 1.8 (-) – 0 MPs (0)
Others: 2.2 – 0 MPs (0)

2006 results in brackets.

92 seats are needed to form a government. The possible coalitions are a continuation of the ‘Grand Coalition’ of the SPÖ and ÖVP (108 seats). A right wing coalition of the ÖVP, FPÖ and the BZÖ (106 seats). A SPÖ, ÖVP and Grüne coalition (128 seats) has also been mooted but is unlikely as the SPÖ and ÖVP would already hold a comfortable majority.

I wonder how the talks will pan out…

Not a good night, A Great Night!!!

Welcome anyone coming over from the The Political Gay Blog on Gaycork!

Well its been a dismal night for Labour. Labour have had the worst result since the 1960’s! They came third to the Lib Dems again! While on the other hand its been a fantastic night for the Conservatives! The share of the vote according to the BBC is Conservatives 44%, Liberal Democrats 25% and Labour 24%. For fun I put those into Electoral Calculus and I got the following: Con 399, Lab 155, LD 68. Thats a Con Majority of 148!

So an update on my predictions

* Boris will win the London Mayoralty
No results couting starting later today

* Conservatives will win the highest vote share nationally but will lose Coventry and gain Reading.
Conservatives have lost Coventry to NOC, no results yet from Reading and the Conservtaives have gotten the highest vote share

* Labour will come second nationally but do better in Northern England.
Wrong on the first, debatable on the second, they came third in the national vote, but are just clinging on in the North

* LibDems will lose Loverpool but stay in third with a net loss of seats.
The LibDems have lost Liverpool to NOC and they came second overall!

The results so far 09:00 CET (08:00GMT) GAINS and LOSES Only
Con Gains
Basingstoke & Deane from NOC. Cons gain 5 seats from LD (2), Lab (2) and Other (1)
Bury from NOC. Cons gain 3 seats from Lab and the LD’s also take 1 from Lab.
Elmbridge from NOC. Cons gain 4 seats at the expense of Residents Association (3) and LD’s 1
Harlow from NOC. Cons gain 5 seats from Lab (4) and Others (1)
Maidstone from NOC. Cons gain 2 seats while Lab lose 2 and Lib Dems also lose 1. Others gaining 1 here
Nuneaton & Bedworth from Lab! Cons gain 4 seats while Labour lose 6. BNP get 2 seats here
Southampton from NOC. Cons gain 8 seats with Lab (4) LD’s (3) and Others (1) losing out. Interestingly colleagues from PolUK both 18 have won seats on Southampton Council! Well done Ben and Paul!
Vale Of Glamorgan from NOC. No details on BBC Website, but are calling it Con, Sky are saying reults pending.
West Lindsey from LD. Cons gain 4 seats from LD.
Wyre Forest from NOC. Cons gain 4 from Lab (2) Liberals, not LD’s (1) and others (1)

Con Loses
Coventry to NOC, as predicted. Cons lost 1 seat to Lab
Colchester to NOC. Cons lose 5 seats with the LD’s picking up 4 and Lab 1.

Liberal Democrats Gains
Kingston-Upon-Hull from NOC. LD’s gain 5 from Others (4) and Labour (1)
St Albans from NOC. LDs gain 1 and the Cons gain 3. Lab lose 3 and others lose 1

LD Loses
Liverpool to NOC. LDs lose 3 seats and the Liberals lose 1 seat. Greens pick up 1 and Labour pick up 3.
Pendle to NOC. LDs lose 8 seats with Lab (4), Cons (2), BNP (1) and others (1) gaining.

Labour Gains
Durham. This is one of the new unitary authoritys. Results: Lab 67, LD 27, Con 10, Others 22

Labour Loses
Blaenau Gwent to NOC. Lab lose 8 seats to others.
Flintshire to NOC. Lab loses 13 seats to Others (7), Con (5) and LD (1)
Hartlepool to NOC. Lab and LD lose 1 seat apiece which are picked up by Cons and UKIP
Merthyr Tydfil to NOC. Lab loses 9 seats with the LD picking up 6 and 3.
Torfaen to NOC. Lab down 16 seats. Others gain 12 and Cons 4.

The headline figures:
Con 45 +8
Lab 14 -6
LD 6 -1
NOC 36 -1

Conservative 1977 (+147)
Labour 1573 (-162)
Liberal Democrats 1086 (+9)
Plaid Cymru 43 (+8)
Residents Association 31 (-12)
Green 23 (+3)
Liberals 16 (-2)
BNP 11 (+8)
Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern 10 (NC)
UKIP 4 (+2)
Respect 4 (+1)
Socialist Alternative 2 (NC)
Others 360 (-2)

Some gain by the BNP and UKIP but massive losses by Lab. Before results came in, I predicted (via comment) on ConservativeHome that Cons would gain 180 (well on track and Lab would lose 120 (way off track!).

Is it time for Brown to go?

Super Tuesday: New Mexico still a tie….

Well its coming down to a wisker in New Mexico. At the moment tallies from the reporting precincts have Clinton on 49% of the vote and Obama and 48%. Its been neck and neck there since yesterday and neither candidate can pull ahead. New Mexico has 26 delegates for convention and think it will play out like this across the US. Clinton and Obama will trade wins and states whos delegates dont cont cause they broke party rules (Michigan and Florida) might come into play to break the deadlock who knows!

Over all Obama has won the following states: Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Conn., Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minneasota, Missouiri, North Dakota and Utah.

Clinton on the other hand won in the following states, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Mass., New Jersey and New York. I think Mike Gavel will drop out of the Democratic race soon enough (bet ye for got he was running!)

Though Obama won in Alabama, Clinton will have more delegates from Alabama then Obama as she won more precincts. Delegate estimates (emphasis on estimates!) have Clinton on 823 and Obama on 741. It is estimated that 2,025 delegates are needed to win.

For the Republicans, McCain i think has it. It has swept up California, New York and Illinois all delegate rich states. Huckabee was the surprise of the day winning in five states and Romney won 7 states. I think Romney really need to go away and think if he should continue.

McCain won in the states of Ariyzona, California, Conn., Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New York, New Jersey and Oklahoma. Romeny won in Alaska, Colorado, Mass., Minneasota, Montana, North Dakota and Utah. Huackabee won in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and West Virgina.

The Republican Delegate estimates look like this, bear in mind most republican states have a winner takes all situation for delegates unlike the proportional system used by the democrats. McCain has 680, Romney has 270, Huckabee has 176 and Ron Paul has 16. It is estimated that you need the support of 1,191 delegates to win the nomination.

Thats it for now. Hopeful will blog about Lisbon and Germany tonight. Unless something unexpected happens in New Mexico!

Super Tuesday: More full results 6pm CET

A big gap between the last post and this one and only 2 extra states have 100% of precints reporting. I reliase that Eastern Time US is six hours behind me!

Here we go

Dems: Obama wins here with 51% of the vote giving him 26 delegates. Clinton gains 22delegetes on 47% of the vote.

Reps: McCain easily wins this primary on 52% of the vote. Romney is in second on 33% while Huckabee is a distant third with 7% of the vote.

Dems: Both sitting Senators (Sens. Kennedy and Kerry) in Massachusetts have endorsed Obama, and gues who won? Clinton! Clinton gained 56% of the vote complared to Obamas 41%. This gives Clinton 54 delegates and Obama 37.

Reps: This is the state that Romney used to be Govener of. He won here by a margin of 10% over McCain. Romney got 51% of the vote.

So of the states fully declared for the Democrats Obama has won: Delaware, Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota and Connecticut. Clinton has won: Massachusetts, Oklahoma and Tennessee. With 13 states still not 100% reporting, including delegate rich states like California and New York, delegate numbers wont be known till tomorrow Id say.

For the republicans, its all about McCain. He is definatley the front runner in this fight. He won Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma and Connecticut. he is also the projected winner in California and New York. Romney has to go away and think about things. He won in Montana, North Dakota and Massachusetts. Huckabee in the big surprise of the night has won in two states that are 100% reporting including Tennessee and West Virgina. I think the GOP ticket is farily certain now. Im predicting a McCain/Huckabee ticket for the Republican Party Nomination. I am notourisly bad at predictions especially Eurovision, but as my last prediction was Guiliani (who since dropped out) I have had to change!

Super Tuesday: States with final Results 10am CET

Heres a rundown of full results as at 10am CET

Dems: Obama wins here with 53% of the vote leaving Clinton behind on 43%. In the important delegate race, Obama gets 9 to Clintons

Reps: McCain wins here with 45% of the vote giving him 18 delegates. Romney comes second with a 33% of the vote and Huckabee comes third with 15%. The important threshold for delegates in 15%.

Dems: Obama streaks ahead here and wins with 79% of the caucus goers supporting him. Thet gives him 15 delegates to Cintons 3 (And 17% of the vote!)

Dmes: Another cuacus victory for Obama this time giving him 74% of the vote and 23 delegates. Clinton has 26% of the vote and 9 delegates.

Dems: the smallest of margins sperates the democratic contenders in this state. Obama and Clinton have evenly split the delegates between. In the actual vote Obama won by 1% leading Clinton 49% to 48%.

Reps: McCain did a similar feat here. He beat Huckabee by 1% and Romney by 4%! The results were McCain 33%, Huckabee 32%, Romney, 29%. Is Huckabee making himself the prosective VP candidate?

Reps: Caucus goers here preffered Romney with 38% supporting him. McCain (22%) and Huckabee (15%) were pushed to third and fourth respectively as Ron Paul came second with 25% of the support.

North Dakota
Dems: Again caucus goers supported Obama giving him 61% of the vote and 8 delegates. Meanwhile Clinton got 31% and 5 delegates.

Reps: Here caucus goers again supported Romney giving him 36% of the vote. McCain came second with 23%, Ron Paul third with 21% just pushing Huckabee into fourth on 20%.

Dems: Here Clinton wins by a margin of 14%! She gets 55% of the vote getting 24 of all those important delegates. Obama gets 31% and gets 14 delegates.

Reps: McCain beats Huckabee to win this state with 17% of the vote to Huckabees 33%. Romeny comes third with 25% of the vote. McCain gets 32 delegates to Huckabess 6.

Dems: Clinton wins here on 54% of the vote compared with Obama’s 41%. This leaves her with 34 delegates and Obama with 21.

Reps: Huckabee here beats McCain to win 34% of the vote and 12 Delegates. McCain gets 32% and 7 delegates. Romney comes third with 24% and 3 delegates.

West Virginia
Reps: One of the tighest caucus results I’ve seen. Huckabee edges out Romney by 5%. He has the support of 52% of state delegates compared to Romney’s 47%. McCain got 1% of the vote!

Will put up further results when I get them.

Super Tuesday: Results so far. 9am CET

These are the results I have at hand from CNN at 9am CET. With 24 states holding contests its a biggie. Especially with delegate rich states as California and New York being the big ones. All percentage figures are of Precints Reporting results unless otherwise stated.

Dem Primary: Obama (99% precincts reporting)
Rep Primary: Huckabee (99% precincts reporting)

Dem Caucus: Obama (98%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (90%)

Dem Primary: Clinton (82%)
Rep Primary: McCain (81%)

Dem Primary: Clinton (87%)
Rep Primary: McCain (87%)

Dem Primary: Clinton (48%)
Rep Primary: McCain (47%)

Dem Caucus: Obama (99%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (95%)

Dem Primary: Obama (99%)
Rep Primary: McCain (99%)

Dem Primary: Obama (100%)
Rep Primary: McCain (100%)

Dem Primary: Obama (99%)
Rep Primary: Huckabee (98%)

Dem Caucus: Obama (97%)
Rep Rimary on May 27th

Dem Primary: Obama (97%)
Rep Primary: McCain (97%)

Dem Caucus: Obama (100%)
Rep Caucus on February 9th

Dem Primary: Clinton (97%)
Rep Primary: Romney (96%)

Dem Caucus: Obama (81%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (82%)

Dem Primary: Obama (100%)
Rep Primary: McCain (100%)

Rep Caucus: Romney (100%)
Dem Primary on June 3rd

New Jersey
Dem Primary: Clinton (99%)
Rep Primary: McCain (99%)

New Mexico
Dem Primary: With 54% of precints reporting Clinton is 2% ahead of Obama. Its far from over here. Its too close to call
Rep Primary on June 3rd

New York
Dem Primary: Clinton (99%)
Rep Primary: McCain (99%)

North Dakota
Dem Caucus: Obama (100%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (100%)

Dem Primary: Clinton (100%)
Rep Primary: McCain (100%)

Dem Primary: Clinton (100%)
Rep Primary: Huckabee (100%)

Dem Primary: Obama (99%)
Rep Primary: Romney (99%)

West Virginia
Rep Caucus: Huckabee (100%)
Dem Primary on May 13th

McCain is now definatley the frontrunner for the GOP nomination and Clinton and Obama are still neck and neck. Its still all to play for.

Up Next Feb 9th
Kansas caucuses (Rep Only)
Louisiana primaries
Nebraska caucuses (Dem Only)
Washington caucuses

German Politics: Federal Election, 2005

The Bundestag nominally has 598 members, elected for a four year term, 299 members elected in single-seat constituencies according to first-past-the-post, while a further 299 members are allocated from statewide party lists to achieve a proportional distribution in the legislature, conducted according to a system of proportional representation called the additional member system. Voters vote once for a constituency representative, and a second time for a party, and the lists are used to make the party balances match the distribution of second votes. In the current parliament there are 16 overhang seats, giving a total of 614. This is caused by larger parties winning additional single-member districts above the totals determined by their proportional party vote.

The key to understanding the current political situation in Germany, is to understand what happened after the last Federal Elections in 2005. The Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, called a motion of no confidence in his own government after the SPD lost the state of North Rhine-Westphalia. This defeat gave the CDU and the FDP a working majority in the Bundesrat.

Early federal elections in Germany can only take place after the dissolution of the Bundestag by the President of Germany, since the constitution forbids the Bundestag dissolving itself. The President can dissolve it only after the Chancellor loses a vote on a motion of confidence. The Federal Constitutional Court ruled in a similar situation in 1983 that Chancellors may not ask the President for the Bundestag’s dissolution merely for the sake of their desire for an early election; they have to have a real problem getting a majority for his legislation. Many observers agree that Schröder met this requirement, since a number of left-wing SPD delegates had expressed great reservations about Chancellor Schröder’s labour reform and welfare reform programme. However, only days before the vote, the coalition had passed a number of bills with no dissenters, indicating strong support for the Chancellor within the coalition. After urging members to abstain on the vote, Chancellor Schröder purposely lost a vote of confidence in the Bundestag on July 1 by 296 to 151. On July 21 President Horst Köhler dissolved the Bundestag and paved the way for the early election on September 18.

The Green member of parliament Werner Schulz – who, in a much-cited speech on the day of the motion of confidence, had criticised the deliberate loss of the motion as “farcical” and likened the Bundestag’s obedience to Schröder to behaviour typical of the German Democratic Republic Volkskammer – and the SPD member of parliament Jelena Hoffmann jointly filed a constitutional complaint in the Federal Constitutional Court. The Court rejected the complaint on August 25, ruling as valid the President’s decision to dissolve the Bundestag, thereby giving the green light for the early elections on September 18 and ending speculation that Schröder would have to step down or lead a “lame duck” government.

The court rejected similar challenges from smaller parties.

Early election polls during summer 2005 from 6 organizations showed a solid lead for the CDU/CSU with a share of the vote ranging between 41% and 43%, and the SPD trailing at between 32% and 34%. The polls further showed the FDP, a possible coalition partner for the conservatives, at between 6.5% and 8%, and the Greens, the current coalition partner for the SPD, between 6% and 8%. Most polls indicated a likely majority for a CDU/CSU-FDP coalition. As for other parties, those polls which explicitly included the PDS-WASG electoral alliance showed it above the 5% hurdle at between 7% and 8.5%. No poll showed any other parties, including far-right parties, near 5%, although far-right parties have in the past sometimes polled below their actual support due to unwillingness by voters to admit their support.

In early August support for Angela Merkel declined considerably. Reasons for this included conflicts about the election program in and between the conservative parties (the CDU and the CSU), and arguments with their preferred coalition partner, the FDP, as well as embarrassing gaffes. At one point the media criticized Merkel for confusing net and gross income figures during a campaign speech. Following this, polls suggested that the CDU/CSU and FDP would only win 48% of votes between them, and thus would not be able to form a government. Further damage occurred when two prominent CDU/CSU candidates, Jörg Schönbohm and the CSU leader Edmund Stoiber, made insulting remarks about East Germans. These remarks not only alienated voters in Eastern Germany but also made some question the CDU/CSU’s confidence in Merkel, as she is herself grew up in the East.

On Sunday September 4, Schröder and Merkel met in a head-to-head debate broadcast by four of Germany’s major private and public television networks. Although most commentators gave the initial edge to Merkel, polls soon showed that the general public disagreed and ranked Schröder the clear winner. Later analysis suggested that, in particular, Merkel’s support for a flat-tax proposal by Paul Kirchhof, the shadow Finance Minister, further undermined her credibility on economic affairs and gave the impression that the CDU’s economic reforms would only benefit the very rich.

Germany went to the polls on September 18, 2005. Voters in one constituency in Dresden had to wait until October 2 to vote, in order to allow the reprinting of ballot-papers after the death of the National Democratic Party candidate on September 8.

The Results: Constituency Vote

Party: Vote% (Seats)
CDU: 32,6 (106)
CSU: 8,2 (44)
SPD: 38,4 (145)
FDP: 4,7 (0)
Die Linkspartei.PDS: 8,0 (3)
Bündnis ’90/Die Grünen: 5,4 (1)

The Results: List Vote
Party: Vote% (Seats)
CDU: 27,8 (74)
CSU: 7,4 (2)
SPD: 34,2 (77)
FDP: 9,8 (61)
Die Linkspartei.PDS: 8,7 (51)
Bündnis ’90/Die Grünen: 8,4 (50)

Thease results left the SDP/Grüne combination on 273 seats and the CDU/FDP on 287 seats. Neither side had a majority (this reminds me of the recent election results in Hessen!). There were a number of choices availible to the parties. SPD, FDP and Greens called the “traffic light” coalition, after the colours used to symbolize those parties: red, yellow and green, respectively. The SPD governed in coalition with the Greens from 1998 to 2005, and in coalition with the FDP from 1969 to 1982. CDU/CSU, FDP and Greens called the “Jamaica” coalition after those parties’ colours: black, yellow and green, respectively, which colours also feature in the Jamaican national flag. The CDU/CSU governed in coalition with the FDP from 1949 to 1966 and from 1982 to 1998; but neither party had worked with the Greens in federal government. CDU/CSU and SPD a Grand Coalition. The CDU/CSU and SPD previously governed in a Grand Coalition from 1966 to 1969.

Neither of the major parties were willing to negiate with Die Linkspartei.

Party-political differences and intense personal hostility between many of the party leaders (particularly between Schröder and Merkel, but also between Schröder and Lafontaine) made negotiations problematic. All party leaders had previously ruled out anything except the usual coalitions. After the election, FDP leaders stated that they would rather remain in opposition than form a coalition with the SPD and the Greens, and Joschka Fischer dismissed the possibility of a Jamaica coalition, saying, “Can you really see Angela Merkel and Edmund Stoiber sitting round the table in dreadlocks? This is more our style. It’s impossible”. Any form of compromise looked to require a change in leadership of one of the main parties.

Despite some prominent members publicly blaming Merkel for its poor showing, the CDU/CSU confirmed her as leader on September 20. On September 22, SPD members began musing that the political system should consider the CDU and the CSU as separate entities rather than as a single parliamentary faction. In such a scenario, the SPD would be the largest party in the Bundestag and thus, they argued, an SPD member should become Chancellor in any Grand Coalition. One SPD legislator indicated he planned to introduce a motion in the Bundestag explicitly defining the CDU and the CSU as separate parties. The Greens rejected coalition with the CDU/CSU after talks broke down. The CDU/CSU pressed their case for the Chancellery after victory in the delayed vote in Dresden, and ahead of talks with the SPD; the SPD maintained their own claim, but Schröder indicated that he would step aside if his party wished it.

Finally, on October 10, officials from the CDU/CSU and the SPD announced that negotiations to form a Grand Coalition had succeeded. Angela Merkel would become Chancellor and the sixteen seats in the new cabinet (including the Chancellery) would go equally to each side, with both the CDU/CSU and the SPD each having eight posts. The SPD would control eight ministeries including the important roles of finance and foreign affairs, while the CDU/CSU would control six ministeries as well as providing the Chancellor and the Director of the Federal Chancellery (the Chancellor’s Chief of Staff), who would also hold the position of Minister for Special Affairs. Gerhard Schröder would reportedly retire from politics.

Detailed negotiations on the formation of the new government continued into November, with Edmund Stoiber of the CSU withdrawing from the proposed cabinet to continue as Minister-president of Bavaria. All three parties held conferences on November 14 (the CDU in Berlin, the CSU in Munich and the SPD in Karlsruhe) which voted to approve the deal. The majority of CDU/CSU and SPD delegates in the newly-assembled Bundestag elected Merkel as Chancellor on 22 November. [12] 397 members of the Bundestag voted for Merkel, indicating that 51 members from one or more of the SPD, CDU or CSU did not support the coalition deal.

So thats where German Politics is at now. The next few posts will start on the Bundeslande and I may return to do posts on the Bundesrat and maybe the Basic Law

Swiss Election Results

Well the SVP have consolidated their position as the largest part in the Swiss National Council. But they have not won enough to demand change in the Federal Council.

The SVP won 62 seats on 29% of the vote. The Green Party of Switzerland and the Green Liberal Party of Switzerland made gains of 7 and 3, the latter making its début in the National Council.

The Green Party of Switzerland also won their first seat in the Council of States.

So this election did not change Swiss consensual politics but will make it slightly more green. The right wing parties are completely tied with the left and greens numerically, so changes are not on the horizon.

More info here

Polish Election Results

Well the results are in Civic Platform have won 209 seats in the lower house and 60 seats in the upper house with nearly 42% of the vote.

I am so happy. The minor parties that propped up the PiS, Self-Defense of the Republic of Poland and League of Polish Families, have lost all their seats in Parliament. PiS did gain 11 seats but as their partners didnt win any seats they cannot form a Government.

It looks like PO will form a coalition Government with the Polish People’s Party (PSL).

Poland now looks see to be less troublesome for the EU, and their will be a period of cohabitation until 2010, when the next presidential elections are due.

See here for more detailed results