Pollwatch: Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI 20th April

Green Party
Green Party (Photo credit: Neil Dorgan)

In continuation from the poll on the referendum in today’s Irish Times, tomorrows looks at party support. Polling was conducted on Monday and Tuesday by Ipsos MRBI. So this is post the major party conferences, Mahon and Household Charge.

The party support levels are:

  • Fine Gael, 33% (-3)
  • Labour, 13% (-6)
  • Fianna Fáil, 14% (-1)
  • Sinn Féin, 21% (+6)
  • Green Party, 2% (+1)
  • Independents/ Others, 17% (+3)

It is interesting to see the Green Party have their own line in a poll again but are still within the margin of error. Fine Gael are down for the first time in awhile but still have the largest support.

Labour continue to and seem to be loosing their support to Sinn Fein. There is no recovery either for Fianna Fail and they too slip, but are marginally ahead of Labour.

Sinn Fein are now solidified as the second most popular party, but if they cant get over there lack of attracting transfers it may still be hard for them to make large gains.

Independents again are a gainer but that can be hard to convert into seats as the vote is split among a wide range of groups.

The leader’s satisfaction’s are interesting in this poll they are:

  • Enda Kenny (FG): 42% (-10)
  • Eamon Gilmore (Lab): 41% (-14)
  • Gerry Adams (SF): 29% (-3)
  • Micheál Martin (FF): 24% (-5)

Overall Government satisfaction is at 23% which is down 14% since last October.

1st Post Election Poll: Sunday Business Post/Red C April 2011

FG sets out extensive plan to tackle jobs cris...
Image by infomatique via Flickr

So today we saw the first poll since the general election published in the Sunday Business Post. It was conducted by Red C. All figures are on difference since the election. The topline figures are:

  • Fine Gael 39% (+3)
  • Labour 18% (-1)
  • Fianna Fail 16% (-1)
  • Sinn Fein 11% (+1)
  • Others 16%

An interesting poll. Maybe people are regretting not voting for a majority Fine Gael government? That or is the sign that Red C over estimate Fine Gael support by about 3%. Pity we won’t know until the local and european elections in 2014. Unless something dramatic happens. I am not surprised at this poll. The government is still in a honeymoon period with the voters, unlike in the media. All the bad news can still be associated with the previous Fianna Fail Government, but this wont last long.

It must be said the Fine Gael ministers have been playing a blinder and are not getting as hit hard by the media or the voters as Labour Ministers. It will be interesting if this trend continues.

It is interesting to note that the Green Party has been lumped into the “others” category. It will be strange not seeing them in polls.

Interview on the election and prediction time

Martin and Buttimer

The last few Thursdays I have been interviewed for a Radio show. This is this mornings interview where they made me make a prediction on the election. I made the following prediction:

  • Fine Gael 79
  • Labour 35
  • Fianna Fail 22
  • Sinn Fein 16
  • Greens 0
  • Independents 15

Whats your prediction?

I will be responding to the election on the show on Monday. Tune in around 9:30am

thurs 24 feb show stephen spillane

Paddy Power/Red C Poll 23rd February

A possible Coalition?

A bit late in reporting on this poll but I was working and canvassing! So to the topline figures:

  • Fianna Fail 15% (-1)
  • Fine Gael 40% (+1)
  • Labour 18% (+1)
  • Green Party 3% (+1)
  • Sinn Fein 10% (-1)
  • Others 14% (-1)

Some minor changes from Sundays poll, but it is still quite interesting. Fine Gael are still holding their ground and the Greens have moved back up to the top of the margin of error range! Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein and Independents have all slipped slightly. Will it be a game changer though?

What do these numbers translate to on seats? Well Adrian Kavanagh has done his sums we get the following figures:

  • Fianna Fail 21,
  • Fine Gael 80,
  • Labour 34,
  • Green Party 0,
  • Sinn Fein 13,
  • Others 18

Its going to be an interesting few days of counting!

The poll of polls has been adjusted for possible the last time, unless I decide to include the exit poll on Saturday morning. But it currently stands as:

  • Fianna Fail 15.6%
  • Fine Gael 36.75%
  • Labour 20.25%
  • Green Party 2%
  • Sinn Fein 11%
  • Independents 14%

Irish Independent/Milward Brown Poll 23rd February

Lynch, Martin and Buttimer

The second last poll of the campaign will be in the Irish Indepdent by Milward Brown. The topline figures are as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 14% (-2)
  • Fine Gael 38% (+1)
  • Labour 20% (nc)
  • Green Party 1% (nc)
  • Sinn Fein 11% (-1)
  • Others 16% (+2)

An interesting poll. Shows that Fine Gael are holding strong. Labour have managed to halt their slide, while Fianna Fail have lost some of the support they had regained. It will be interesting to see if this impacts on the debate tonight. Will Gilmore relax a bit or will Martin go for jugular.

The seat prediction by Adrian Kavanagh stands as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 17,
  • Fine Gael 78,
  • Labour 37,
  • Green Party 0,
  • Sinn Fein 14,
  • Others 20

The talks after the election are going to be as interesting as the election!

Poll of Polls

The unscientific poll of polls now stands at

  • Fianna Fail 15.5
  • Fine Gael 36.5
  • Labour 20.5
  • Greens 2
  • Sinn Fein 11.5
  • Others 14

The final expected poll will be announced in the morning with a Paddy Power/Red C poll

Irish Times\Ipsos-MRBI Poll 21st February

Labour's Election Campaign - Dublin 2011
Image by infomatique via Flickr

I have a feeling we will have a few polls this week as in we enter the last lap and the Irish Times have an Ipsos MRBI poll in tomorrows paper. The topline figures are:

  • Fianna Fail 16% (+1)
  • Fine Gael 37% (+4)
  • Labour 19% (-5)
  • Greens 2% (+1)
  • Sinn Fein 11% (-1)
  • Others 15 (nc)

This poll confirms the results of the polls in Sunday’s papers. Labour seem to have made a massive mistake in their camapign and are now paying the price as voters either return to Fianna Fail or move to Fine Gael.

Fine Gael continue their rise and the possibility of single party government. The fact that Enda’s popularity has risen, just the same as the party’s support. In this poll Enda is on 37%, the exact same as party support.

There is still a lot to play for as 19% of the electorate are undecided on who to vote for.

The poll of polls, which is unweighted and highly suspect, but interesting all the same stands as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 15%
  • Fine Gael 36.3%
  • Labour 20.5%
  • Greens 1.8%
  • Sinn Fein 11.5%
  • Others 13.9%

Lets see what happens this week, in case anything goes wrong for the other parties.

Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll and Sunday Independent/Milward Brown Poll 20th February

Election Posters

Two polls today! Its like christmas!

Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll

Its five days to polling day and the Sunday Business Post have their last opinion poll of the campaign. The headline figures are as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 16% (+1)
  • Fine Gael 39% (+1)
  • Labour 17% (-3)
  • Greens 2% (-1)
  • Sinn Fein 12% (+2)
  • Independents 14% (NC)

This poll shows some recovery for Fianna Fail and another advance for Fine Gael who are really approaching 40% and possible overall majority. This poll really shows that Labour are floundering. They haven’t hit home with their attacks and are driving people away.

The seats prediction by Adrian Kavanagh is as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 25
  • Fine Gael 78
  • Labour 31
  • Greens 0
  • Sinn Fein 13
  • Others 19

Sunday Independent/Milward Brown Poll

The second poll in the Sunday Independent has topline figures as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 16% (+4)
  • Fine Gael 37% (-1)
  • Labour 20% (+3)
  • Greens 1% (nc)
  • Sinn Fein 12% (+2)
  • Independents 14 (+2)

There is a surprising amount of similarities between the polls. Granted the Sindo do show Fine Gael down, its only by 1%. But the Sindo also show that Labour is in trouble. I have a feeling there will be a lot of soul searching in Labour HQ today and tomorrow. Fianna Fail look set to stay at 16% and I would be surprised if that changed much in the next 5 days.

The seat predictions are as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 23
  • Fine Gael 75
  • Labour 36
  • Greens 0
  • Sinn Fein 13
  • Others 19

Poll of Polls

With the addition of these two polls, the rough poll of polls stands as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 16%
  • Fine Gael 36%
  • Labour 21%
  • Greens 2%
  • Sinn Fein 11.5%
  • Independents 14%

Irish Daily Star/OI Research Poll 17th February

Election Poster

There is a poll in todays Irish Daily Star (details from Journal.ie) by OI research. It is a telephone survey of a 1,000 voters on Sunday and Monday.

The topline figures are as follows:

  • Fine Gael 39
  • Labour 18
  • Fianna Fáil 17
  • Sinn Fein 10
  • Green Party 2
  • Independents/others 14

It is interesting to compare it to yesterdays poll in the independent which it dosent differ too differently from.

Seats would be along the lines of

  • Fianna Fail 31
  • Fine Gael 77
  • Labour 31
  • Sinn Fein 9
  • Others 18

Fine Gael seem to be inching towards the magic 83. Will they get there on polling day?

The change of polls stands as follows (really rough averages as decimals going crazy!)

  • Fianna Fail 16
  • Fine Gael 36
  • Labour 21
  • Green 2
  • Sinn Fein 11
  • Others 14

No poll seems to be an outlier, so its going to be interesting if the ballot boxes reflect the polling.

Irish Independent\Milward Brown Poll 16th February

Election Poster

Another week and another poll. Tomorrow sees a poll in the Irish Independent my Milward Brown. It has topline figures as follows:

  • Fine Gael 38 (+8)
  • Fianna Fail 12 (-4)
  • Labour 23 (-1)
  • Sinn Fein 10 (-3)
  • Greens 1
  • Others 16 (-1)

This further cements the lead taken by Fine Gael in the polls. It is also further bad news for Fianna Fail who are really beginning to hit rock bottom. Well they hope they are! The greens have really become an irrelevance in this election as with 1% they would be lucky if they were in the toss up for any seat.

Using these polling figures Adrian Kavanagh has calculated the seats as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 13,
  • Fine Gael 78,
  • Labour 42,
  • Green Party 0,
  • Sinn Fein 13,
  • Others 20

Around 10 left leaning independents and 10 right leaning independents would be elected. If things keep building behind Fine Gael it could definately be looking at one party government.

The poll of polls stands at:

  • Fianna Fail 15.5
  • Fine Gael 35
  • Labour 22
  • Greens 2
  • Sinn Fein 12
  • Other 14

Still a lot to play for in the last week..

In other poll news I am told a Cork South Central poll will be in the Examiner tomorrow. And also there was a Evening Herald for Dublin this evening which had the following figures:

  • Labour 31,
  • Fine Gael 29,
  • Ind 16
  • Fianna Fail 10
  • Sinn Fein 11,
  • Green 3

Its going to be a long few days of polls I think!

    Sunday Business Post\Red C 13th Feb

    FG sets out extensive plan to tackle jobs cris...
    Image by infomatique via Flickr

    A new poll has been published in today’s Sunday Business Post by Red C. It shows that Fine Gael is +3% on last weeks at 38% showing that Enda’s non appearance on Tuesday night has not hurt him at all. The poll was done on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday should take good account of the Debate.

    Crucially Fianna Fail are down 2% to 15% showing a further deterioation in their support and nearly shows very little hope of a recovery for them. Labour also drop down 2% to 20%, which shows that maybe Tuesday’s debate damaged both parties and that their was no winner, just two losers?

    The topline figures are as follows:

    • Fianna Fail 15% (-2)
    • Fine Gael 38% (+3)
    • Labour 20% (-2)
    • Green Party 3% (+1)
    • Sinn Fein 10 (-3%)
    • Others/Independents 14% (+3)

    According to Adrian Kavanagh this would translate to seats as follows:

    • Fianna Fail 20
    • Fine Gael 76
    • Labour 38
    • Green Party 0
    • Sinn Fein 12
    • Others/Independents 20

    Thats a lot of independents. The Independents grouping would be made up of 11 “left” independents (including 6 ULA) and 9 “right” independents. This means three possible Governments:

    • Fine Gael – Labour
    • Fine Gael – Fianna Fail (Minority Government)
    • Fine Gael – Independent

    Its interesting that with about two weeks to go that momentum is building behind the Kenny Krusade. Is a Fine Gael overall majority a possibility?

    The Poll of Polls which has been running since the 2nd of Feb has the following figures:

    • Fianna Fail 16.2
    • Fine Gael 34.6
    • Labour 21.6
    • Green Party 2
    • Sinn Fein 12
    • Independents 13.2