According to the latest Opinion Poll, due to be published tomorrow in the Sunday Business Post, Labour and Sinn Fein are both down points. According to Irish Election, the figures are:
FG 31 (+1); FF 28 (+5); Lab 17 (-5); SF 7 (-4); Green 7 (+1); Others 10 (+2)
So thats is the left down a total of 9 percentage points. The main benificaries of this is Fianna Fail, but with Fine Gael and the Greens both picking up slightly. Interesting to see a Fianna Fail bounce before the budget, but is this a feel good bounce from their Ard Fheis recently? I suppose we will have to see if they can maintain their support after the budget.
Fine Gael 33% (-2) Fianna Fail 28% (-2 Labour 14% (NC) Greens 8% (+3) Sinn Fein 9% (+1) Ind/Others 8% (NC)
The opinion poll also asked a question on the Lisbon Treaty. 58% of people back the treaty according to the poll. 28% are against and 14% don’t now.
It is strange that in a week that some leading no campaigners claimed the treaty was flawed due to a case being LODGED against the treaty in Germany that the majority in Ireland come out for in it in a poll.
Yes you read that right the lodging of a case means something is flawed according to the Peoples Movement (PDF). That is like saying that if someone is charged with a crime then they are guilty without trial! At least let Lisbon go to a hearing before passing judgement Madam McKenna. No one can predict when the Court will give a verdict, after the Maastricht case it was the day after the hearing, will it be the same for Lisbon? Will the Court the cases separately? Nobody knows but as usual the Peoples Movement try to rush in and try to misinform people again.
Anyway back to the poll, Fianna Fail remain five points behind Fine Gael while the Greens seam to be on the up and are avoiding being tainted by this Government it seams. For a change the Fianna Fail tactic of blaming the smaller party doesn’t seam to be working, and they are suffering.
The results of the Local and European Elections will be very interesting this year!
So a thread over on Machine Nation got me thinking ahead to next June’s European Elections. Some parties, including the Greens, Labour and Sinn Fein have selected their candidates. FF are a foregone conclusion with FG the only major party left to select. Of course Kathy Sinnott will run again. Libertas who say it is “substantially correct” that they have registered as a European Political Party.
So who is running (in no particular order): Labour (Party of European Socialists) are running Senator Alan Kelly from Tipperary. He was elected on the Agricultural Panel to the Seanad.
Greens (European Greens–European Free Alliance) are running Dan Boyle their leader in Seanad Eireann and Chairman. He was appointed to the Seanad following the loss of his seat in Cork South Central in the 2007 General Election.
I assume Fianna Fail (Union for Europe of the Nations) are running Brian Crowley MEP who is the leader of the UEN in the European Parliament. Brian was first elected in 1994 and has held it since.
Sinn Fein (European United Left–Nordic Green Left) are running Cllr. Toireasa Ferris, former Cathaoirleach of Kerry County Council. Her father, Martin Ferris, is the Sinn Féin TD for Kerry North.
Fine Gael (European People’s Party-European Democrats) still have time to decide between Colm Burke, who was co-opted to replace Simon Coveney TD, and former GAA President Sean Kelly. Burke is a former Lord Mayor of Cork with a long history of serving the people of Cork. Kelly on the otherhand will be well known around teh constituency so that convention should be interesting.
Kathy Sinnott MEP (Independence/Democracy) is also expected to run again as she currently heads up the Ind/Dem group in the European Parliament. She ran in the General Election back in 2002 and narrowly lost out on a seat in Cork South Central. She was elected to the European Parliament in 2004.
Thats all the candidates I know of. Other candidates may be announced and I will endeavor to keep this list updated!
The Christian Social Union (CSU), the sister party of Angela Merkel’s CDU, look set to lose state elections held today in Bayern (Bavaria) reports The Local. Exit polls show the CSU have gotten only 43% of the vote. This is the CSU worst election since 1952 and means they will lose their absolute majority, which they have held since 1962.
The SPD are also down on 2003 according to the exit poll, which has them at 19%. The Greens and the FDP did well and increased their vote to 9.2% and 8.4% respectively and the Free Voters polled 10.2% ensuring that at least five parties will be represented in the state parliament. Die Linke who have made gains across Germany looks set to fail to reach the 5% threshold, polling at 4.7%.
This is not good reading for the CDU who are facing though times ahead of next years general election, of course it does not look well either for the SPD who are in a ‘grand coalition’ with the CDU.