US Midterm Predictions

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As promised yesterday, here are some predictions for the US Midterms.

Senate

In the senate the Republicans need to win 10 seats to gain control of senate. I think they will pick up 12 seats including: Nevada, Florida and Illinois. I think Fiorina will just lose out to Boxer in California, but I am hoping to be wrong on that one!

House

In the House I think the Republicans will end up with between 225 and 235 seats. This could be conservative, but the house is a lot harder to predict.

Govenor

In the various races for the Statehouses, California returning to Democratic control is a foregone conclusion. I think Illinois and Ohio will go Republican. I think Lincoln Chafe (ind) will win in Rhode Island.

Have you any predictions to share?

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US Midterm Elections

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So Tuesday is the first electoral test faced by President Obama, since his election in 2008. That year also saw much celebration by the Democrats as they won many seats in the Senate and House of Representatives as well as a number of state houses. This year that could change. The Republicans look set to win a number of Senate and House seats, this could be because of or despite of the Tea Party.

Senate

There are a number of very interesting Senate races this year. They are mainly in the west. Two that I will be watching closely will be Carly Fiorina’s bid to unseat Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer in California. Most of the polling have Boxer retaining her seat, but not by a very wide margin. Most give Ma’am Boxer a margin of between 3 and 8%, so this could be an interesting race.

The other race I will be watching closely will be Senate Majority Leader’s Harry Reid’s attempt to hold his seat against Republican Sharron Angle in Nevada. This is a loss that will be a great victory for the republicans, but if he hangs on, there wont be much for the Republicans to gloat about.

Of couse their are other races to watch. They include the race for Obama’s old seat in Illinois. It looks like that will be a very close one. Republican Mark Kirk looks set to win the seat and defeat the Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, as he has fallen behind in recent polling.

Other races that will be interesting are Florida, West Virgina and Alaska. It will be interesting to see how Christine O’Donnell does in Delaware. The big question here is, will Republicans get a majority? I think they will get a bare majority of 51 to 49.

House

The US House of Representatives is always interesting as the entire house is up for re-election. Here there is set to be a big change. The current state of play is the Democrats have 256 seats and the Republicans have 179. The Republicans need to gain 39 seats to gain control. Most forecast have them winning 40-60 seats so it is expected to see a good few seats change hands. And of course the results of this election will give us a better view of Democratic’s position across the country.

Some of the races to watch are Arkansas’s 1st District, Delaware’s At-Large District, Florida’s 2nd, 8th and 22nd Districts and Idaho’s 1st District.

Governors

39 state governorships are up for grabs also on Tuesday. A few of these are very interesting. In Rhode Island, independent Lincoln Chafee is leading the race to become senator. He was a former Republican senator but endorsed Obama in 2008 and this has led to an interesting race.

In Vermont, Republican Brian Dubie and Democrat Peter Shumlin are in a close battle for the Governorship. In current polling there is a 1% gap!

In Florida, Democrat and Chief Finance Officer of Florida, Alex Sink is locked in battle with Republican and Health Care Activist Rick Scott. In some polls there is no difference between them!

Other states that will be interesting to watch include Obama’s home state of Illinois, where the Republicans could gain. Other states I will be watching Ohio, Oregon and Minnesota.

So I will be getting up early on Wednesday morning (as I have work) to catch up with what has happened and see how it may pan out. Should I make predictions? Maybe tomorrow!

Have you got any tips before I make them?

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Illinois Governor arrested for trying to sell Obama’s open Senate seat

This is something else!

I found this story on ConHome’s CentreRight Blog and Gaypatriot.net which pointed me in the direction of instapundit.com.

But the Governor of Illinois, Rod Blagojevich, is under arrest for corruption charges, including the charge of trying to sell Obama’s open Senate Seat! The part I love no where in the CNN story does it name the party affliation of the Govenor. Democrat if you must know. I have the feeling that if this was a Republican Gonenor, it would feature quite heavily in the report.

Instapundit points to A Blog for All which is listing the news stories not giving the party affliation. Interesting stuff