Ireland to get a new Government

Enda Kenny is set to make history on today when he is re-elected Taoiseach, the first Fine Gael Taoiseach to do so. Dáil Eireann will meet today at 12pm to vote on the nomination following the successful negotiations with Fianna Fail and Independent TDs.

After first negotiating a Confidence and Supply Agreement in the ‘Trinity Talks’ with Fianna Fáil, a series of deals were then completed with a range of Independent TDs. Some Independent TDs including Dublin South West TD Katherine Zappone, Roscommon-Galway TD Denis Naughton and Dublin Rathdown TD Shane Ross are also expected to made ministers. Continue reading “Ireland to get a new Government”

Cork City Council – The Candidates

Its 12 days to polling for the Local and European Elections on May 23rd.2014-04-24 20.41.34

Following the elections in 2009 Fine Gael became the largest party on the Council with 8 seats. They were followed by Labour on 7 and Fianna Fail on 6. Sinn Fein had 4 seats with the Socialist Party and the Workers Party having one each. 4 Independent councillors were elected.

Since that election there has been some changes. Fine Gael now have 9 seats has Joe’O’Callaghan was co-opted to Dave McCathy’s (Ind) seat in Cork North West following his death in April 2011. Chris O’Leary who was elected as an independent in the Cork South East Ward has since joined Sinn Fein bringing them to 5 seats. This has left only two independents on the Council, Mick Finn in Cork South Central and Kieran McCarthy in Cork South East.

Three councillors are retiring this year Jim Corr a Fine Gael Councillor in Cork South East, Brian Birmingham a Fine Gael Councillor in Cork South West and Michael Ahern a Labour Councillor also in Cork South West. All three have had long service on the council.

A total of 65 candidates are running for the 31 seats on Cork City Council. Fine Gael are running 14 candidates across the 6 city wards while Fianna Fail are running 11 candidates. Sinn Fein are running 7 candidates to Labour ‘s 6. The Green party have 3 candidates, Anti Austerity Alliance also have 3. The Workers Party have two candidates while the Communist Party is running only one Candidates. By far the largest number of candidates are Non-Party candidates who number 15 candidates across the city.

Below is a list of all candidates seeking election to Cork City Council in 2014.

* denotes sitting councillor

Cork North Central Ward (5 seats)

  • Mick Barry*, Anti Austerity Alliance
  • Catherine Clancy*, Labour
  • Billy Corcoran, Non-Party
  • Thomas Gould*, Sinn Fein
  • Patricia Gosh*, Fine Gael
  • Donnacha Loftus, Fine Gael
  • Lil O’Donnell, Anti Austerity Alliance
  • Kenneth O’Flynn, Fianna Fail
  • Dr John Sheehan, Fianna Fail

Cork North East Ward (4 seats)

  • Tim Brosnan*, Fianna Fail
  • Sue-Ellen Carroll, Fine Gael
  • Stephen Cunningham, Sinn Fein
  • Joe Kavanagh*, Fine Gael
  • John Kelleher*, Labour
  • Philip A McCarthy, Non-Party
  • Oliver Moran, Green Party
  • Michael O’Donnell, Communist Party of Ireland
  • Ted Tynan*, Workers Party

Cork North West Ward (4 seats)

  • Lyndsey Clarke, Fine Gael
  • Kenneth Collins, Sinn Fein
  • James Coughlan, Workers Party
  • Tony Fitzgerald*, Fianna Fail
  • Evan Murphy, Non-Party
  • John Murphy, Non-Party
  • Mick Nugent*, Sinn Fein
  • Joe O’Callaghan*, Fine Gael
  • Michael O’Connell*, Labour
  • Barry O’Donovan, Non-Party
  • Pat O’Shea, Non-Party
  • Marian O’Sullivan, Anti Austerity Alliance
  • Maurice Sheehan, Non-Party

Cork South Central Ward (5 seats)

  • Paudie Dineen, Non-Party
  • Mick Finn*, Non-Party
  • Ella Goddin, Non-Party
  • Brian Houlihan, Non-Party
  • Fiona Kerins*, Sinn Fein
  • Lorraine Kingston*, Labour
  • Billy MacGill, Fine Gael
  • Sean Martin*, Fianna Fail
  • Tom McIntyre, Non-Party
  • Tom O’Driscoll, Fianna Fail
  • Emmet O’Halloran*, Fine Gael
  • Johnny O’Mahony, Green Party

Cork South East Ward (7 seats)

  • Dan Boyle, Green Party
  • Des Cahill*, Fine Gael
  • Derek Cregan, Fine Gael
  • Kate Martin, Fianna Fail
  • Kieran McCathy*, Non-Party
  • Laura McGonigle*, Fine Gael
  • Diarmuid Ó’Cadhla, Non-Party
  • Denis O’Fynn*, Labour
  • Nicholas O’Keeffe, Fianna Fail
  • Chris O’Leary*, Sinn Fein
  • Shane O’Shea, Sinn Fein
  • Terry Shannon*, Fianna Fail

Cork South West Ward (6 seats)

  • John Buttimer*, Fine Gael
  • Henry Cremin*, Sinn Fein
  • Fergal Dennehy, Fianna Fail
  • Ger Gibbons*, Labour
  • P.J. Hourican, Fine Gael
  • Barry Keane, Fine Gael
  • Thomas Kiely, Non-Party
  • Thomas Moloney, Non-Party
  • Mick Murphy, Green Party
  • Mary Shields*, Fianna Fail



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Pollwatch: Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI 20th April

Green Party
Green Party (Photo credit: Neil Dorgan)

In continuation from the poll on the referendum in today’s Irish Times, tomorrows looks at party support. Polling was conducted on Monday and Tuesday by Ipsos MRBI. So this is post the major party conferences, Mahon and Household Charge.

The party support levels are:

  • Fine Gael, 33% (-3)
  • Labour, 13% (-6)
  • Fianna Fáil, 14% (-1)
  • Sinn Féin, 21% (+6)
  • Green Party, 2% (+1)
  • Independents/ Others, 17% (+3)

It is interesting to see the Green Party have their own line in a poll again but are still within the margin of error. Fine Gael are down for the first time in awhile but still have the largest support.

Labour continue to and seem to be loosing their support to Sinn Fein. There is no recovery either for Fianna Fail and they too slip, but are marginally ahead of Labour.

Sinn Fein are now solidified as the second most popular party, but if they cant get over there lack of attracting transfers it may still be hard for them to make large gains.

Independents again are a gainer but that can be hard to convert into seats as the vote is split among a wide range of groups.

The leader’s satisfaction’s are interesting in this poll they are:

  • Enda Kenny (FG): 42% (-10)
  • Eamon Gilmore (Lab): 41% (-14)
  • Gerry Adams (SF): 29% (-3)
  • Micheál Martin (FF): 24% (-5)

Overall Government satisfaction is at 23% which is down 14% since last October.

Fianna Fail won’t Facilitate a Norris Run

Original Raidió Teilifís Éireann logo
Image via Wikipedia

RTÉ reported last night that a party whip was being applied to Fianna Fail TD’s and Senators to stop them individually nominating Independent candidates.

Speaking in an interview aired on RTÉ’s This Week In Politics, Seán Ó Fearghail, The Fianna Fail whip, said the party would act collectively if it chooses to support an independent candidate.

This is seen as a blow to the possible return of Senator Norris to the race for the Presidency.

The Irish Times today reports on a possible reason why Fianna Fail will not be back Senator Norris. One source said that Mr Norris had been arrogant in his approach to the party earlier in the summer, when he needed only a few nominations. Another source described Norris’s possible re-emergence as a candidate as a “distraction” which was “of no concern” to the party.

A Fianna Fáil spokesman said the party’s position was that it had decided not to run a candidate. Once the nominations were in, it would look at those running and then decide whether to support a particular candidate. He said the question of facilitating a candidate by nominating the person was not an issue for Fianna Fáil because no one had contacted the party to seek such support.

The Irish Independent reports that Fianna Fail senators, in particular, are angry with Mr Norris over the way he handled their offer of support over the summer. Surces said informal contacts were rebuffed in a dismissive way.

“He thought he didn’t need us then, that he would get the 20 anyway and he basically thumbed his nose at us,” one senator said.

“Well, he can think twice if he’s looking our support now,” he added.

Another said he was “rude enough” and “didn’t engage” when the offer was made.

One FF senator said: “I wouldn’t sign his nomination papers if you put them in front of me in the morning.”

After the contacts, the Fianna Fail group in the Seanad met in July to discuss signing his nomination papers formally, and this was rejected by the group of 14 senators.

So is it all over for Norris? Or will he re-enter the race on Friday during his interview on the Late Late Show?

1st Post Election Poll: Sunday Business Post/Red C April 2011

FG sets out extensive plan to tackle jobs cris...
Image by infomatique via Flickr

So today we saw the first poll since the general election published in the Sunday Business Post. It was conducted by Red C. All figures are on difference since the election. The topline figures are:

  • Fine Gael 39% (+3)
  • Labour 18% (-1)
  • Fianna Fail 16% (-1)
  • Sinn Fein 11% (+1)
  • Others 16%

An interesting poll. Maybe people are regretting not voting for a majority Fine Gael government? That or is the sign that Red C over estimate Fine Gael support by about 3%. Pity we won’t know until the local and european elections in 2014. Unless something dramatic happens. I am not surprised at this poll. The government is still in a honeymoon period with the voters, unlike in the media. All the bad news can still be associated with the previous Fianna Fail Government, but this wont last long.

It must be said the Fine Gael ministers have been playing a blinder and are not getting as hit hard by the media or the voters as Labour Ministers. It will be interesting if this trend continues.

It is interesting to note that the Green Party has been lumped into the “others” category. It will be strange not seeing them in polls.

Interview on the election and prediction time

Martin and Buttimer

The last few Thursdays I have been interviewed for a Radio show. This is this mornings interview where they made me make a prediction on the election. I made the following prediction:

  • Fine Gael 79
  • Labour 35
  • Fianna Fail 22
  • Sinn Fein 16
  • Greens 0
  • Independents 15

Whats your prediction?

I will be responding to the election on the show on Monday. Tune in around 9:30am

thurs 24 feb show stephen spillane

Paddy Power/Red C Poll 23rd February

A possible Coalition?

A bit late in reporting on this poll but I was working and canvassing! So to the topline figures:

  • Fianna Fail 15% (-1)
  • Fine Gael 40% (+1)
  • Labour 18% (+1)
  • Green Party 3% (+1)
  • Sinn Fein 10% (-1)
  • Others 14% (-1)

Some minor changes from Sundays poll, but it is still quite interesting. Fine Gael are still holding their ground and the Greens have moved back up to the top of the margin of error range! Fianna Fail, Sinn Fein and Independents have all slipped slightly. Will it be a game changer though?

What do these numbers translate to on seats? Well Adrian Kavanagh has done his sums we get the following figures:

  • Fianna Fail 21,
  • Fine Gael 80,
  • Labour 34,
  • Green Party 0,
  • Sinn Fein 13,
  • Others 18

Its going to be an interesting few days of counting!

The poll of polls has been adjusted for possible the last time, unless I decide to include the exit poll on Saturday morning. But it currently stands as:

  • Fianna Fail 15.6%
  • Fine Gael 36.75%
  • Labour 20.25%
  • Green Party 2%
  • Sinn Fein 11%
  • Independents 14%

Irish Independent/Milward Brown Poll 23rd February

Lynch, Martin and Buttimer

The second last poll of the campaign will be in the Irish Indepdent by Milward Brown. The topline figures are as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 14% (-2)
  • Fine Gael 38% (+1)
  • Labour 20% (nc)
  • Green Party 1% (nc)
  • Sinn Fein 11% (-1)
  • Others 16% (+2)

An interesting poll. Shows that Fine Gael are holding strong. Labour have managed to halt their slide, while Fianna Fail have lost some of the support they had regained. It will be interesting to see if this impacts on the debate tonight. Will Gilmore relax a bit or will Martin go for jugular.

The seat prediction by Adrian Kavanagh stands as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 17,
  • Fine Gael 78,
  • Labour 37,
  • Green Party 0,
  • Sinn Fein 14,
  • Others 20

The talks after the election are going to be as interesting as the election!

Poll of Polls

The unscientific poll of polls now stands at

  • Fianna Fail 15.5
  • Fine Gael 36.5
  • Labour 20.5
  • Greens 2
  • Sinn Fein 11.5
  • Others 14

The final expected poll will be announced in the morning with a Paddy Power/Red C poll

Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll and Sunday Independent/Milward Brown Poll 20th February

Election Posters

Two polls today! Its like christmas!

Sunday Business Post/Red C Poll

Its five days to polling day and the Sunday Business Post have their last opinion poll of the campaign. The headline figures are as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 16% (+1)
  • Fine Gael 39% (+1)
  • Labour 17% (-3)
  • Greens 2% (-1)
  • Sinn Fein 12% (+2)
  • Independents 14% (NC)

This poll shows some recovery for Fianna Fail and another advance for Fine Gael who are really approaching 40% and possible overall majority. This poll really shows that Labour are floundering. They haven’t hit home with their attacks and are driving people away.

The seats prediction by Adrian Kavanagh is as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 25
  • Fine Gael 78
  • Labour 31
  • Greens 0
  • Sinn Fein 13
  • Others 19

Sunday Independent/Milward Brown Poll

The second poll in the Sunday Independent has topline figures as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 16% (+4)
  • Fine Gael 37% (-1)
  • Labour 20% (+3)
  • Greens 1% (nc)
  • Sinn Fein 12% (+2)
  • Independents 14 (+2)

There is a surprising amount of similarities between the polls. Granted the Sindo do show Fine Gael down, its only by 1%. But the Sindo also show that Labour is in trouble. I have a feeling there will be a lot of soul searching in Labour HQ today and tomorrow. Fianna Fail look set to stay at 16% and I would be surprised if that changed much in the next 5 days.

The seat predictions are as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 23
  • Fine Gael 75
  • Labour 36
  • Greens 0
  • Sinn Fein 13
  • Others 19

Poll of Polls

With the addition of these two polls, the rough poll of polls stands as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 16%
  • Fine Gael 36%
  • Labour 21%
  • Greens 2%
  • Sinn Fein 11.5%
  • Independents 14%

Can you predict the 31st Dáil?

Whitebox have an interesting prediction competition for the next Dáil. Fullhouse is an interesting tool to try and guess who will be elected in each constituency.

There is talks of prizes, but I would have done it anyway!

I have managed to finish off my prediction have come up with the following results:

  • Fine Gael 75
  • Labour 40
  • Fianna Fail 31
  • Sinn Fein 10
  • Independents 6
  • United Left Alliance 4

There are some interesting stats also on the website on various things. One of those is the non-incumbent TD to be elected. This currently is Sinn Fein’s Padraig MacLochlainn in Donegal North East. It also has the TD most likely to lose their seat, that currently is Fianna Fail’s Peter Power in Limerick City.

Its an interesting idea. What is your prediction?

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