Tag: Labour

Irish Presidential Election 2018

Its official as of this week the Irish Presidential Election will take place on Friday, October 26th. On the same-day, there will vote on Thirty-seventh Amendment of the Constitution (Repeal of offence of publication or utterance of blasphemous matter) Bill 2018.

A number of candidates are vying to get on the on the ticket to challenge sitting President Michael D Higgins. There are three ways to get on the ballot paper, a sitting President (or former President who served only one term) may nominate themselves, nomination by 20 members of the Oireachtas or by nomination by 4 local authorities.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have both said they will not be nominating a candidate and will be supporting the President. Labour who nominated Michael D Higgins in 2011 are supporting him in this election.

Sinn Fein will also be announcing a candidate. They have a process in train and will announce a candidate on the 10th of September.

The last Presidential election in 2011 had a record 7 candidates, this year could equal that or exceed it providing that the independents in the Dail and Seanad agree on a candidate and the county councils nominate the maximum number of candidates. There are 31 councils (26 County Councils, 3 City Councils and 2 City & County Councils), 4 per candidate meaning 6 possible candidates from this route, as well as the incumbent and the Sinn Fein Nominee, meaning a possible 8 candidates from the 11 announced so far.

I hope to keep this post updated as nominations come in before the deadline on September 26th

So who are the candidates?

Confirmed

Nominations Received (4 councils or 20 Oireachtas members needed)

Looking for Nominations

  • Peter Casey – Businessman
  • Patrick Feeney – Retired Aer Lingus Worker
  • Mannix Flynn – Independent Councillor on Dublin City Council
  • John Groake – Farmer
  • Marie Goretti Moylan – Volunteer
  • Sarah Lousie Mulligan – Entertainer
  • Gemma O’Doherty – Journalist
  • Kevin Sharkey – Artist
  • James Smyth – Musician

Possible Sinn Fein Candidates

  • John Finucane – Solicitor
  • Liadh Ni Riada – MEP

Withdrawn Candidates

The New European Parliament

eu flagsFollowing last month’s European Elections the European Parliament will meet on July 1st to constitute itself and elect its new President. Most commentators expect that the two largest groups, the European People’s Party and the Socialist and Democrats, will continue their alliance and split the presidency again between them.

So how did the groups fair? 

The European Parliament now consists of 751 MEPs down 15 from the 766 MEPs in the last parliament. There has been some changes of Group compositions with newly elected parties and independents joining groups and some parties changing groups. The Groups now stand as follows:

  • EPP: 221 (-53)
  • S&D: 191 (-4)
  • ECR: 63 (+7)
  • ALDE: 59 (-26)
  • Greens/EFA: 54 (-4)
  • GUE/NGL: 52 (+17)
  • EFD: 32 (-1)
  • NI: 79

In Ireland Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein have remained with their respective groups (EPP, S&D & GUE/NGL) and Independent Marian Harkin has also remained with ALDE.

Independent Nessa Childers has been readmitted to the S&D Group ensuring they are represented in every member state after Labour’s wipe-out at the elections. Independent Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagen has joined Sinn Fein in the GUE/NGL group. The Socialist Party failed to retain it’s MEP.

That means the groups stand as follows in the Irish Delegation:

  • EPP: 4 (-)
  • S&D: 1 (-2)
  • ALDE: 2 (-2)
  • GUE/NGL: 4 (+4)

Commission President – Parliament v European Council

After electing the President and 14 Vice Presidents of the Parliament the next task will be voting for the European Commission President. While the EPP and S&D leadership are backing Jean Claude-Juncker they dont have complete control of their groups. With UK Labour opposing Junker’s candidacy, neither party can afford to lose support on this vote.

  • Needed for a Majority: 376
  • EPP + S&D: 412
  • EPP + S&D -UKLab: 392

16 votes would be quite close. But of course Junker will have to emerge as the European Council Nominee first, a battle in itself, before any such vote will take place in the European Parliament.

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European Elections 2014: Ireland South

European-Elections-2014I recently posted about those seeking election to Cork City Council, I am now turning to the European Elections and looking at who is running the European Elections. First up is Ireland South with its 4 seats. 15 candidates are standing and are canvassing across the counties of Carlow, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Kilkenny, Limerick, Tipperary, Waterford, Wexford and Wicklow for your vote over the last 9 days before the polls open on May 23rd.

The Candidates

Candidates listed by order of appearance on Ballot Paper with links to Social Media Profiles. * denotes current MEP

Richard Cahill, Non- Party

Richard is the only candidate from County Clare running in this election. He has decided not to have any posters. He is from Sixmilebridge and is a volunteer community worker. You can see his Youtube video here.

Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael

Deirdre is one of 3 Fine Gael candidates in Ireland South. She is from Cork and formerly represented Cork South Central in the Dáil. She is a former Lord Mayor of Cork and is currently a Senator where she is Spokesperson on Enterprise, Jobs and Innovation. She can be found on Youtube, Twitter and Facebook

Brian Crowley*, Fianna Fail

Brian Crowley is another Cork candidate hailing from Bandon. He has represented this are in the European Parliament since 1994 making him one of Ireland’s longest serving current MEP’s. He has topped the polls in the past and will more then likely do so again. He can be found on Facebook

Jillian Godsil, Non-Party

Jillian Godsil was in the papers long before she was a candidate. She forced the Government to change the law to allow bankrupts to run in the European Elections. She is a writer by profession and comes from Arklow in Co. Wicklow. Her tagline is “writing my way out of trouble”. She is also running for Wicklow County Council. She can be found on Twitter

Simon Harris, Fine Gael

Simon is currently the youngest TD in Dáil Eireann. He is from Greystones in County Wicklow. He is secretary of the Fine Gael Parliamentary Party and a member of the Public Accounts Committee. He was previously a member of Wicklow County Council and Greystones Town Council. He can be found on Youtube, Facebook and Twitter

Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fail

Kieran Hartley is the second Fianna Fail Candidiate in Ireland South. Coming from Kilmacthomas in County Waterford. This is first time running for Elections and is self-employed. He can be found on Facebook.

Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democrats (The National Party)

Theresa Heaney is a Housewife from Timoleague County Cork. She has previously ran for the Dáil in Cork South West in 1997 for the National Party getting 5.12% of the vote and in 2002 as in independent polling 1.98%. She is the Chairman of the Mothers Alliance Ireland.

Sean Kelly*, Fine Gael

The 3rd Fine Gael candidate and current MEP. First elected to the European Parliament in 2009. A former GAA President from Killarney, County Kerry, he has been nominated and won MEP of the year from his peers in the European Parliament. He can be found on Facebook and Twitter.

Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Fein

Liahh Ní Riada, daughter of the late Musician Sean Ó’Riada, hails from Baile Mhic Ire in County Cork. She is the Irish Language Officer of Sinn Fein. She previously worked with RTÉ and TG4 as a Director and Producer. She can be found on Facebook and Twitter.

Diarmuid O’Flynn, Non-Party

Diarmuid O’Flynn is a sports journalist from Ballyhea in County Cork. He currently writes for the Irish Examiner. He is known for starting the “Ballyhea says no” protests. He can be found on Facebook and Twitter.

Peter O’Loughlin, Non- Party

While Peter O’Loughlin is registered as Non-Party is the sole candidate of the National Independent Party who advocate Irish withdrawal from the European Union and were formed early in 2014.

Dónal Ó’Ríordáin, Fís Nua

Dónal Ó’Ríordáin is an engineer from Bandon and this is his first election. This is also Fís Nua’s first European elections. He can be found on Facebook.

Grace O’Sullivan, Green Party

Grace O’Sullivan is from Waterford and is an ecologist. She has been an activist for many years with Greenpeace. She is a former Irish Surf Champion. This is also her first time contesting an election. She can be found on Facebook and Twitter.

Phil Prendergast*, Labour

Phil took over this seat following Alan Kelly’s election to Dáil Eireann. She comes from Clonmel in County Tipperary making her the only Tipperary candidate in this election. She is a midwife by training and previously served on Clonmel Borough Council and South Tipperary County Council as an independent. She can be found on Facebook and Twitter.

Jan Van De Ven, Direct Democracy Ireland

Jan Van De Ven is an entrepreneur from Avoca County Wicklow. He is the Chairman and Leader of Direct Democracy Ireland. He plans to use eDemocracy to bring decision making back to the people. He can be found on Facebook and Twitter 

Prediction

FF’s Brian Crowley is sure to top the poll and will more the likely be elected on the first count. Fine Gael’s Sean Kelly and Sinn Fein’s will get the 2nd and 3rd seats not sure in what order. Leaving Labour’s Phil Prendergast and Fine Gael’s Deirdre Clune the front runners for the last seat. If I were a betting man, I would but my money on Clune. I cannot see any of the independent or other party candidates getting anywhere close to quota.

The Replacements

As there are no Bye-Elections to the European Parliament following the resignation or death of an MEP there replacement is chosen from the list submitted by parties and candidates at the time of the election. Here are the replacement lists for Ireland South.

REPLACEMENT LIST R.C. (Presented by Richard Cahill)

  1. CAHILL, MARELEN, Sixmilebridge, Co. Clare.

REPLACEMENT LIST F.G. (Presented by Fine Gael)

  1. KELLY, SEÁN, Gortroe, Killarney, Co. Kerry.
  2. CLUNE, DEIRDRE, 144, Blackrock Road, Cork.
  3. HARRIS, SIMON, 79, Redford Park, Greystones, Co. Wicklow.
  4. D’ARCY, MICHAEL, Annagh, Inch, Gorey, Co. Wexford.
  5. BURKE, COLM, 36, Farranlea Grove, Cork.
  6. O’HALLORAN, EMMET, 42 Mercier Park, Cork.

REPLACEMENT LIST F.F. (Presented by Fianna Fáil)

  1. CROWLEY, BRIAN, Maryborough Lodge, Douglas, Cork.
  2. HARTLEY, KIERAN, Ballyboy, Kilmacthomas, Co. Waterford.
  3. O’HIGGINS, ADRIAN, Shellumsrath, Callan Road, Kilkenny.
  4. O’SULLIVAN, NED, Cahirdown, Listowel, Co. Kerry.
  5. DALY, MARK, 34, Henry Street, Kenmare, Co. Kerry.
  6. AMBROSE, SIOBHAN, Dún Mhuire, Melview, Clonmel, Co. Tipperary.

REPLACEMENT LIST C.D. (Presented by Catholic Democrats(The National Party).

  1. BENNIS, NORA, 16, Revington Pk, Limerick.
  2. CAREY, MARGARET, Horse & Jockey, Thurles.
  3. MAHON, ELIZABETH, Rathmines, Dublin 6.

REPLACEMENT LIST S.F. (Presented by Sinn Féin)

  1. GOULD, THOMAS, 121, Cathedral Road, Cork.
  2. O’LEARY CHRIS, 17, Loughmahon Road, Mahon, Cork.
  3. FUNCHION, KATHLEEN , 28, Whites Castle, Knocktopher, Kilkenny.

REPLACEMENT LIST D.O.F. (Presented by Diarmuid Patrick O’Flynn)

  1. FITZPATRICK, FIONA, Pike Farm, Charleville.
  2. MOLONEY, PATRICK, Broghill, Charleville.
  3. RYAN, PHILLIP, Shinanagh, Ballyhea.

REPLACEMENT LIST F.N. (Presented by Fís Nua)

  1. NUTTY, BEN, 34, Sweetbriar Terrace, Lower Newtown, Waterford.

REPLACEMENT LIST G.P. (Presented by Green Party/ Comhaontas Glas)

  1. NOONAN, MALCOLM, 35, Fr. Murphy Square, Kilkenny, Co. Kilkenny.
  2. MANNING, CORMAC, 36, The Meadows, Classes Lake, Ballincollig, Co. Cork.
  3. RYDER, MARY, 17, O’Connell Avenue, Turners Cross, Cork.

REPLACEMENT LIST L.P. (Presented by The Labour Party)

  1. WALSH, DECLAN, Oldenburg, Lower Road, Cobh, Co. Cork.
  2. KANE, ADRIAN, 42 Idaville, Old Blackrock Road, Cork.
  3. SHORTT, CLLR. TOM, Walnut House, Browns Quay, Thomondgate, Limerick.
  4. Ó HÁRGAIN, CLLR. SEÁN, Sceilig, Green Hill, Kilkenny.

REPLACEMENT LIST D.D.I. (Presented by Direct Democracy Ireland).

  1. BURKE, LOUISE, Ballygahan Lower, Avoca, Co. Wicklow.
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Cork City Council – The Candidates

Its 12 days to polling for the Local and European Elections on May 23rd.2014-04-24 20.41.34

Following the elections in 2009 Fine Gael became the largest party on the Council with 8 seats. They were followed by Labour on 7 and Fianna Fail on 6. Sinn Fein had 4 seats with the Socialist Party and the Workers Party having one each. 4 Independent councillors were elected.

Since that election there has been some changes. Fine Gael now have 9 seats has Joe’O’Callaghan was co-opted to Dave McCathy’s (Ind) seat in Cork North West following his death in April 2011. Chris O’Leary who was elected as an independent in the Cork South East Ward has since joined Sinn Fein bringing them to 5 seats. This has left only two independents on the Council, Mick Finn in Cork South Central and Kieran McCarthy in Cork South East.

Three councillors are retiring this year Jim Corr a Fine Gael Councillor in Cork South East, Brian Birmingham a Fine Gael Councillor in Cork South West and Michael Ahern a Labour Councillor also in Cork South West. All three have had long service on the council.

A total of 65 candidates are running for the 31 seats on Cork City Council. Fine Gael are running 14 candidates across the 6 city wards while Fianna Fail are running 11 candidates. Sinn Fein are running 7 candidates to Labour ‘s 6. The Green party have 3 candidates, Anti Austerity Alliance also have 3. The Workers Party have two candidates while the Communist Party is running only one Candidates. By far the largest number of candidates are Non-Party candidates who number 15 candidates across the city.

Below is a list of all candidates seeking election to Cork City Council in 2014.

* denotes sitting councillor

Cork North Central Ward (5 seats)

  • Mick Barry*, Anti Austerity Alliance
  • Catherine Clancy*, Labour
  • Billy Corcoran, Non-Party
  • Thomas Gould*, Sinn Fein
  • Patricia Gosh*, Fine Gael
  • Donnacha Loftus, Fine Gael
  • Lil O’Donnell, Anti Austerity Alliance
  • Kenneth O’Flynn, Fianna Fail
  • Dr John Sheehan, Fianna Fail

Cork North East Ward (4 seats)

  • Tim Brosnan*, Fianna Fail
  • Sue-Ellen Carroll, Fine Gael
  • Stephen Cunningham, Sinn Fein
  • Joe Kavanagh*, Fine Gael
  • John Kelleher*, Labour
  • Philip A McCarthy, Non-Party
  • Oliver Moran, Green Party
  • Michael O’Donnell, Communist Party of Ireland
  • Ted Tynan*, Workers Party

Cork North West Ward (4 seats)

  • Lyndsey Clarke, Fine Gael
  • Kenneth Collins, Sinn Fein
  • James Coughlan, Workers Party
  • Tony Fitzgerald*, Fianna Fail
  • Evan Murphy, Non-Party
  • John Murphy, Non-Party
  • Mick Nugent*, Sinn Fein
  • Joe O’Callaghan*, Fine Gael
  • Michael O’Connell*, Labour
  • Barry O’Donovan, Non-Party
  • Pat O’Shea, Non-Party
  • Marian O’Sullivan, Anti Austerity Alliance
  • Maurice Sheehan, Non-Party

Cork South Central Ward (5 seats)

  • Paudie Dineen, Non-Party
  • Mick Finn*, Non-Party
  • Ella Goddin, Non-Party
  • Brian Houlihan, Non-Party
  • Fiona Kerins*, Sinn Fein
  • Lorraine Kingston*, Labour
  • Billy MacGill, Fine Gael
  • Sean Martin*, Fianna Fail
  • Tom McIntyre, Non-Party
  • Tom O’Driscoll, Fianna Fail
  • Emmet O’Halloran*, Fine Gael
  • Johnny O’Mahony, Green Party

Cork South East Ward (7 seats)

  • Dan Boyle, Green Party
  • Des Cahill*, Fine Gael
  • Derek Cregan, Fine Gael
  • Kate Martin, Fianna Fail
  • Kieran McCathy*, Non-Party
  • Laura McGonigle*, Fine Gael
  • Diarmuid Ó’Cadhla, Non-Party
  • Denis O’Fynn*, Labour
  • Nicholas O’Keeffe, Fianna Fail
  • Chris O’Leary*, Sinn Fein
  • Shane O’Shea, Sinn Fein
  • Terry Shannon*, Fianna Fail

Cork South West Ward (6 seats)

  • John Buttimer*, Fine Gael
  • Henry Cremin*, Sinn Fein
  • Fergal Dennehy, Fianna Fail
  • Ger Gibbons*, Labour
  • P.J. Hourican, Fine Gael
  • Barry Keane, Fine Gael
  • Thomas Kiely, Non-Party
  • Thomas Moloney, Non-Party
  • Mick Murphy, Green Party
  • Mary Shields*, Fianna Fail

 

 

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Phil going for the “Pink” vote

We are all fairly used to seeing adverts when we open up Apps these days, but one popped up today that made me take notice. An ad for a European Parliament Candidate on a gay “dating” app. None other than Labour’s Phil Prendergast, who replaced Alan Kelly following his election to the Dáil, and is running for re-election in Ireland South.

Phils Grindr ad

Now for me Gay men aren’t normally the best at going out and voting, going by my friends. But then again, has anyone else really targeted them outside of the odd advert in a Pride brochure?

It will be interesting to see if it will make a difference. But strategically I think it done to far out from the election to make a difference.

 

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European Parliament Elections 2014 – Ireland

This year will see the 28 member states of the European Union going to the polls between the 22nd and the 25th of May to elect a new European Parliament. In Ireland this years elections will see a big change on the 2009 elections due to boundary changes and the change in the Political landscape since that election.

Constituency Changes

A number of changes to the European Parliament constituencies was needed following Ireland’s reduction of seats to 11 following the accession of Croatia last July. The Constituency of Ireland East was abolished. Dublin stayed a 3 seat constituency. Ireland South gained Clare from North-West and gained Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford and Wicklow from the abolished Ireland East and is also now a 4 seat constituency. A new 4 seat constituency of Ireland Midlands-North-West was created including all of Ireland-North West and the remaining counties from Ireland East namely Kildare, Louth, Meath and Offally.

Political Changes

With Fine Gael and Labour now in power it will be a different dynamic then the past elections during Fianna Fail led Governments. With Labour expecting to lose a number of seats in the Local elections, its two remaining MEP’s look vulnerable, as neither of them have been elected. Fine Gael would do well to hold their 4 seats, though they may have their eyes set an that extra seat in Ireland South.

Fianna Fail who claim to be resurgent will also hope to gain back a seat in Dublin but could face difficulty with Brian Crowley in Ireland South who has the worst attendance record among Irish MEP’s. But with the larger constituency they have a chance to bring in new blood and could score a surprise.

The Socialist Party will be hoping to hold on it’s seat in Dublin, but its bizarre use of Paul Murphy posters throughout the country during the Fiscal Treaty referendum rather then on focusing them on Dublin was a strange tactic. They will be lucky to hold this seat as both Sinn Fein and Fianna Fail are likely to take the seat.

Sinn Fein who currently are unrepresented in the European Parliament will hope to change this following its performance in the last General Election. They must certainly have an eye on a seat in each of the constituencies but being realistic they should be happy with 2 (Dublin and South).

The Greens in this election will be fielding token candidates. I cannot see them getting elected anywhere. They may do well in there traditional areas (Dublin and Wicklow) but with both Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein taking the Labour votes, I don’t see enough left over for the Greens.

Ireland currently has 2 independent MEP’s, Marian Harkin and Nessa Childers. Marian Harkin is a well respected MEP in Ireland and further afield and normally has a decent vote in North-West. The addition of the Eastern Counties could benefit her and certainly keep her in contention as the addition of an extra seat should also up her chances.

Nessa Childers is a different story. She was elected as a Labour MEP in Ireland East and has confirmed that she will not be running as an S&D candidate in Ireland South

While the expansion of the constituency and the extra seat may help, I dont see it having the same effect as with Marian Harkin.

I do intend to follow the elections here, especially the European elections. Expect more constituency level posts as the Parties confirm their candidates.

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Childers Resigns from the Parliamentary Labour Party.

Nessa Childers the Labour MEP for Ireland East has resigned from the Parliamentary Labour Party citing the partys actions in Government as her reasons. She has decided to remain a member of the Labour Party.

I assume she is remaining a member of the party in order to stay attached to the S&D grouping of the European Parliament. If she left the Labour Party completely she would have to move to the Non-Inscrits seats and lose the benefits of being a group member.

I havent seen any announcment about whether she will run or not in the European Parliamentary Elections in 2014. If she runs as an independent she will prevent Labour from having any chance (which is slim as it is) from retaining the seat.

This resignation also leaves Labour in the predicament of having two unelected MEPs left in the European Parliament. Emer Costello in Dublin and Phil Prendergast in South. With the recent opinion polls its going to be hard for Labour to retain their seats and this is a further blow to them.

Pollwatch: Sunday Business Post/RED C May 14th

Yesterday’s Sunday Business Post had a poll on Party Support and the upcoming treaty referendum. For the referendum the Yes side has much to be comforted by. The results are:

  • Yes: 53% (+6)
  • No: 31% (-4)
  • Don’t Know: 16% (-2)

When you exclude the Don’t Know yes side lead 63% to 37%. This shows the strength of the Yes side before the entry of Declan Ganley to the debate so it will be interesting to see if his contribution makes any difference.

In terms of party support the only major statistical movement is drop below 30%. The party support is as follows:

  • Fine Gael 29% (-3)
  • Labour 13% (-1)
  • Sinn Fein 21% (+1)
  • Fianna Fail 19% (+2)
  • Others 18% (nc)

Fianna Fail, who have been in the news a lot lately thanks to Eamonn O Cuiv, seems to have gotten a bit of a bounce from that. Sinn Fein remains the second most popular party in Ireland, but I still believe transfers will still be hard to come by for them.

The Government Parties have seen a drop in support which is probably due to the treaty campaign as much criticism has been laid at how the country is being run.

But over all, the movement is all within the margin of error, but trends are starting to set in.

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UK Local Elections – Councils

Signs for May 2007 Scottish Parliament and loc...
Signs for May 2007 Scottish Parliament and local elections. Picture taken in Edinburgh. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

What a bad night and day for David Cameron and the Conservatives last night. A bad night that the Liberal Democrats joined them in. Labour managed to surpass the modest target they had set. In the 181 councils across the UK that elected new councillors Labour gained 32 of them. The Conservatives lost 12 councils and the Liberal Democrats lost 1. Labour gained councils in the South and Midlands where they needed to regain ground if they are to have any hope of electoral success in the future.

In terms of councillors themselves Labour gained 823, while the Conservatives lost 405 and the Liberal Democrats lost 336.

It was one of the worst nights for Liberal Democrats since they were founded in 1988 and of course the Conservatives took a battering also even David Cameron’s own Whitney constituency elected a Labour Councillor.

This is to be expected during a mid-term election with the Government taking tough economic decisions which are dislike on the ground.

Interestingly 9 cities rejected the idea of having a locally elected Mayor, while Bristol voted to have one and Doncaster voted to keep theirs.

This is again been seen as a defeat for the Government but it must be remembered that they were brought in by the Labour Government.

In Scotland both the Scottish National Party and Labour gained 2 councils each and gained a similar number of councillors. They failed to beat Labour and the end it was the other parties, especially the Liberal Democrats who lost out to Labour and the SNP.

In Wales it wasn’t a great night for Plaid Cymru who lost control of their only council, Caerphilly, and they lost 41 Councillors. Those weren’t the highest looses, as again the brunt was felt by the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

In England, the Greens are now the fourth largest party on English Councils and they gained 5 seats in England alone (11 nationally). The BNP lost all the seats they were defending in England and failed. It is also unlikely that they will do well in the London Assembly. UKIP whose vote went up, but they have failed to convert that into seats as they may have allowed Labour victories by splitting the Conservative vote.

So a good result for Labour and the SNP, while the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats will have to reconsider their party strategies.

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Pollwatch: Sunday Business Post/Red C April 29th

DUBLIN, IRELAND - MAY 16: Garda traffic cones...
DUBLIN, IRELAND - MAY 16: Garda traffic cones prevent parking in central Dublin in advance of the Queen and Duke of Edinburgh's visit on May 16, 2011 in Dublin, Ireland. Dublin is preparing for the Queen and Duke of Edinbugh's historic visit tommorow, the first by a monarch since 1911. An unprecedented security operation is taking place with much of the centre of Dublin turning into a car free zone. Republican dissident groups have made it clear they are intent on disrupting proceedings. (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)

Yesterday’s Sunday Business Post had a Red C poll on the treaty referendum and on party support, so it made for interesting reading on the way home from Dublin (hence why this post is late). On the treaty it has shown some slight movement and it is the same story with party support.

The headline figures on the treaty are:

  • Yes 47% (-2)
  • No 35% (+2)
  • Don’t Know 18% (nc)

When the Don’t Know’s are excluded the figures are:

  • Yes 58% (-2)
  • No 42% (+2)

With the changes all within the margin of error, it is still all to play for. And with the campaign getting officially underway today expect a lot more polls!

In terms of party support the figures are as follows:

  • Fine Gael 32% (-2)
  • Labour 14% (-1)
  • Fianna Fail 17% (+1)
  • Sinn Fein 19% (+1)
  • Others 18% (+1)

All the changes again are within the margin of error.  So no major changes. Interesting to note that Government Parties support is down, while opposition is up. But with no major changes its hard to make any long term predictions on it.

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