Eve of Election Prediction

So Predict09 have their final prediction up. They have the European Groupings as follows:

  • EPP: 262 seats
  • PES: 194
  • ALDE: 85
  • UEN/EC: 53
  • Greens-EFA: 50
  • EUL/NGL: 40
  • Ind/Dem: 23
  • Non-insrcit: 30

So the EPP will be the largest party by far in the next European Parliament. So Barroso is safe enough I would say.

Looking at Ireland, they are predicting no major changes in the line up. They have the parties on the following (the increase is in realtion to the 2004 results):

  • Fine Gael: 34% (+6.2%) 4 MEps (-1)
  • Fianna Fail: 20% (-9.5%) 3 MEPS (-1)
  • Labour: 14% (+3.4)   2 MEPs (+1)
  • Sinn Fein: 9% (-2.1%) 1 MEP (nc)
  • Green Party: 4% (-0.3%) ) 0 MEPs (nc)
  • Libertas: 4% 0 MEPs
  • Independents: 15% (-0.5%) 2 Meps

So Fianna Fails Eoin Ryan looks set to be one of only two loses in the European Elections. They have him to loose his seat. Labour look like they will only gain one seat, when could do so much more. It will be a Fine Gaels expense in Ireland East.

Despite having Sinnott to loose in a previous prediction it looks like her support has rallied and she may keep her seat. Harkin too is safe.

But will it happen as predicted? Sunday could be a very boring night at the count centre. I don’t think it will as there is a huge thing about where the transfers will go. Its anybodys guess half the time I would say!

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The European Elections – It’s Labour’s to loose?

Labour Party (Ireland)
Image via Wikipedia

I’ve been looking at Predict09′s latest predictions and from looking at the headline figures from last thursdays figures for Ireland. To me it is a case that this is election for Labour to loose.

The headline figures are (in comparison to 2004 figures):

  • Fine Gael 32% (+4.2%) 4 MEPs (-1)
  • Fianna Fail 27% (-2.5%) 3 MEPs (-1)
  • Labour 14% (+3.4%) 3 MEPs (+2)
  • Green Party 6.2% (+1.9%) 0 MEP (NC)
  • Sinn Fein 5.6% (-5.5%) 1 MEP (NC)
  • Independents 8.6% (-6.9%) 1 MEP (-1)
  • Libertas 6.7% 0 MEP

As the figures suggest Labour will make gains in this election. The two seats will most likely be in Ireland East and Ireland South. Fianna Fail look dead set to loose in Dublin. Fine Gael unless they get the vote share right in Ireland East will loose the seat held by Avril Doyle. Kathy Sinnot will be struggling to hang on to her seat.

What is interesting is that it looks like Libertas will out poll Green Party and Sinn Fein yet will not win a seat. If they poll this figure on the day, will they continue as a party if they dont get a seat?

The next prediction will be out on June 4th so an eve of election poll.

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“Unelected Brussels bureaucrats make up to 80% of laws” – eh No It Don’t

During the Libertas Campaign against the Lisbon Treaty and probably during the Euro-Elections we will hear the statistic that “Unelected Brussels bureaucrats make up to 80% of laws”. This claim was echoed by Marine Le Pen of the French Le Front Nationale who said on BFM TV

« 80% des lois qui sont  appliquées et qui sont votées par les députés sont en réalité seulement enregistrées parce que ce sont des directives européennes » (80% of the laws which are applied and which are voted by the deputies are actually only recorded because they are European directives)

Generation Yes recently undertook some research to look at that claim in relation to Ireland. They say it is “completely false” to say that. They analsyed Acts and Statutory Instruments from 1992 to 2009 to test the claim. These are their results.

Of the 588 Acts, 114 contain at least one reference to European legislation (19.39%). Of the 10,725 Statutory Instruments, 3,050 contain at least one reference to European legislation (28.44%). Of the total of Irish legislation from 1992 to 2009, then, only 3,164 out of 11,313 Acts and Instruments contain any reference whatsoever to European legislation – 27.97%.

….

Looked at year by year, it can be seen that in no year does the amount of Irish legislation in any sense ‘containing traces of EU’ rise as far as 50%.

For the full research see their Fight the Lies page. I would assume it would be a similar figure for France.

As usual the eurosceptics stoop to misinformation to try and confuse the electorate.

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Libertas – Nil Points?

I blogged yesterday about Predict 09‘s Irish Predictions, but tonight while looking through the country analysis I noticed something. Libertas will not win any seats in the European Parliament. In fact there is only vote share predicted for Ireland and Poland. In Ireland it is predicted at 7% and in Poland its predicted for 0% (+ the margin of error which is 4%). It is not predicted to win seats in Ireland or Poland. Let alone anywhere else!

Will this happen? I don’t know. Its highly unlikely that Libertas will pick up seats in Ireland (unless Sinnott joins them after the election), but they could pick up seats in the United Kingdom, where Labour and UKIP are predicted to be down.

Interesting times ahead for the Chairman.

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Fianna Fail to loose 2 MEPs?

The latest predictions from Predict 09 are out and they make for interesting reading for the Irish predictions. According to it Fine Gael will remain the largest party with five MEP’s and 30% of the vote. They say the Fianna Fail will loose two MEPs. And I have to agree with them. They predict that Fianna Fail will get 28% of the vote.

Labour look to be the big gainers and will gain a seat at the expense of Fianna Fail increasing there MEPs to two and increasing their share of the vote to 13%. Sinn Fein will drop in its vote share to 7.6% but will retain an MEP, but I doubt in Dublin. Sinnott and Harkin will keep there seats. I know Harkin will keep her seat and have said it from the start of this prediction. Sinnott on the other hand is vunerable to Labour.

Greens won’t pick up a seat but will poll at 6% and Libertas also will not pick up a seat and will get about 7% of the vote.

Where will Fianna Fail loose their seats? North-West is certainly at stake and Sinn Fein could pick up a seat there. As for the Labour gain? South is the most likely in my eyes at the expense of Sinnott. Could Fianna Fail loose in East or Dublin? Maybe.

Predict 09 will next be updated on May 21st, so that will be my next post about the Irish predictions!

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Irish MEP Candidates and Some Predictions

Here is a round up of the Candidates for the 4 European consitituencies in Ireland with a few predictions.

Ireland – Dublin

Dublin is the big battlegorund this year with the number of seats being reduced from 4 seats to 3. The Greens, with Senator Deirdre De Burca, are also hoping to gain a seat in Dublin. It will be a tough campaign.

  • Eibhlin Byrne (Fianna Fail) Website
  • Deirdre de Burca (Greens) Website
  • Proinsias de Rossa MEP (Labour) Website
  • Joe Higgins (Socialist) Website
  • Mary Lou McDonald MEP (Sinn Fein) Website
  • Gay Mitchell MEP (Fine Gael) Website
  • Eoin Ryan MEP (Fianna Fail) Website
  • Caroline Simons (Libertas) Website

Prediction: Ryan, De Rossa and Mitchell to hold their seats with McDonald loosing out. Of the others I think the Greens will poll best.

Ireland East

East is going to be an interesting campaign with Fine Gael out to hold on to its two seats it won in the 2004 elections. This time round, Avril Doyle MEP is standing down and Sen. John Paul Phelan has taken up the reigns to hang on to the seat. Fianna Fail will also be hoping to hang on to its seat. They have yet to announce their second candidate in the constituency. Sinn Fein are also running two candidates here. Greens have no candidate announced  here at the moment.

  • Liam Aylward MEP (Fianna Fail) Website
  • Nessa Childers (Labour) Website
  • Kathleen Funchion (Sinn Fein) Website
  • Mairead McGuinness MEP (Fine Gael) Website
  • Ray O’Malley (Libertas) No Link Found
  • John Paul Phelan (Fine Gael) Website
  • Tomás Sharkey (Sinn Fein) Website

Prediction: Unless Fianna Fail can get another candidate in the ticket soon, the seat could be in danger, but to who is the question? Sinn Fein if it can manage its vote could be the threat to Fianna Fail. Fine Gael will hang to its two seats.

Ireland North West

This will be an interesting constituency. This is the constituency that Libertas founde Declan Ganley will be running in. Will people back him and his party? Fianna Fail are in a spot of bother here as Sean O’Neachtain won’t be running this year and they have no one to replace him. Sinn Fein came second on first perferences here in 2004, but will they be as strong this time out? Fine Gael are running two candidates and could do the job and win two, but at whos expense? Will it be Fianna Fail or Independent (ALDE) MEP Marian Harkin?

  • Declan Ganley (Libertas) Website
  • Marian Harkin MEP (Independent/ALDE) Website
  • Jim Higgins MEP (Fine Gael) Website
  • Padraig Mac Lochlainn (Sinn Fein) Website
  • Paschal Mooney (Fianna Fail) Website
  • Susan O’Keefe (Labour) Website
  • Fiachra O Luain (Independent) Website
  • Joe O’Reilly (Fine Gael) Website

Prediction: Harkin to keep the seat. That is going against what everyone else is saying, but im going out on a limb here! If Fianna Fail can get a well known figure, either TD or outsider then they may keep the seat, but I know they will be slow to run a TD due to possible by-election defeat. Fine Gael will win at least one seat and depending on second Fianna Fail candidate could win two.

Ireland South

In Ireland South Fine Gaels Colm Burke is fighting for the seat he inherited from Simon Coveney in 2007. Fine Gael are also challenging for a second seat. Kathy Sinnott (Independent/Democracy) is also fighting to keep her seat. Fianna Fail is running two candidates here, with sitting MEP Brian Crowley being joined on the ticket by Ned O’Keefe TD. Libertas aren’t running in Ireland South so that they don’t threaten Sinnotts anti-EU vote.

  • Colm Burke MEP (Fine Gael) Website
  • Brian Crowley (Fianna Fail) Website
  • Dan Boyle (Green) Website
  • Toireasa Ferris (Sinn Fein) Website
  • Alan Kelly (Labour) Website
  • Sean Kelly (Fine Gael) Website
  • Ned O’Keeffe (Fianna Fail) No Link Found
  • Kathy Sinnott (Independent/Democracy) Website
  • Alexander Stafford (Independent) No Link Found

Prediction: Crowley and Burke will hold seats and it will go to the last count between Sinnott and Sean Kelly. I think Kelly will win it though.

The night of the count will be very interesting in each of the constituencies! I’m looking forward to it.

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Opinion Polls – 6 MEPs and 10% ahead for Fine Gael

Well Predict 09, the Burson – Marsteller study by Simon Hix (London School of Economics), Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin), and Nick Vivyan (London School of Economics), has updated its predictions. It is now predicting that the EPP will win 251 seats, up three from last prediction, the PES are predicted to win 211, up two from the previous predction.

They have also updated the country predictions. For Ireland they are forcasting the following.

  • Fine Gael 6 MEPs (31%) +1 (+3.2%)
  • Fianna Fail 4 MEPs (31%) -1 (+1.5%)
  • Labour 1 MEP (14%) nc (+3.4%)
  • Sinn Fein 0 MEPs (7.8%) -1 (-3.3%)
  • Green Party 0 MEPs (6.6%) nc (+2.3%)
  • Independents 1 MEP (9.2%) -1 (6.3%)

They predict that Sinn Fein’s Mary Lou McDonald will be the one to lose out in Dublin considering she holds Sinn Feins only European seat in the South. The independent they forcast losing the seat is the ALDE independent which is Marian Harkin in Ireland North-West. They are predicting that Sen Joe O’Reilly will take a second seat for Fine Gael in Ireland North-West. While this would be great, I don’t think it will be likely that Harkin will lose the seat. I think that Fianna Fail are in danger of loosing this seat since sitting MEP Seán Ó Neachtain will not be running. The current Fianna Fail candidate is Paschal Mooney a Leitrim Councillor but he would not be aswell known as many of the other candidates in the constituency. Last time out it took transfers from Dr. Jim McDaid TD to keep Fianna Fail in. I wonder will Fine Gael get the 6 seats?

The other poll is the Red C poll for the Sunday Business Post. The topline figures are as follows (from Irish Election):

  • Fine Gael 33% +2
  • Fianna Fail 23% -5
  • Labour 19% +2
  • Sinn Fein 8% +1
  • Greens 7% nc
  • Others/Independents 10%

This gives Fine Gael a full 10% lead over Fianna Fail. But should we be further ahead? When it came to the European and Local elections Fine Gael does lose out on votes to independents, but that is normal. Interestingly Libertas is only polling at 2%, so I doubt they will be gaining any seats in Ireland.

The poll was conducted earlier in the week before McGuiness’s outburst on the Late Late last night. I wonder will that effect how people perceive the Government?


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Which Party Should You Vote For?

A new website launched recently to show people which national party you should vote for. Its called EU Profiler. I had a go off it.

It presents to you 30 statements and say whether you agree or disagree. Then you rate their importance and then say who you would be willing to vote for. The results are close enough. I come out right wing and pro-Europe which fits the me perfectly I think!

Its recommendations for me are:

  1. Fine Gael: 53.9%
  2. Labour: 50.9%
  3. Fianna Fail: 50%
  4. Greens: 37%
  5. Socialist: 30.9%
  6. Sinn Fein: 23.1%
  7. Libertas: 20.3%

Just for fun you can see the top ten parties you mach with across Europe. My top ten are:

  1. Venstre, Liberal Party of Denmark (ELDR): 81.7%
  2. Liberal People’s Party of Sweden  (ELDR): 81.5%
  3. Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania: 81.3%
  4. Centrolew (Centre-left) of Poland: 78.6%
  5. Green Party of Czech Republic (European Green Party): 77.7%
  6. Slovak Democratic and Christian Union – Democratic Party (EPP): 77.1%
  7. SNK European Democrats of Czech Republic (EPP-ED): 76%
  8. Centre Party of Sweden (ELDR): 76%
  9. Croatian Democratic Union (EPP): 75.8%
  10. Christian and Democratic Union – Czechoslovak People’s Party of Czech Republic (EPP): 75.4%

A strange mix but interesting none the less.

I think it is fairly accurate and its interesting to see what party you are most aligned with in other countrues. Well it is for politics nerds like me!

Does EU Profiler get it right for you?

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8th and 9th Think Posts!

I have been a busy boy today! I have posted two new posts over on thinkaboutit.eu. The first post is about Jury Team, a group of independents going for election to the European Parliament in the UK.

The Federal Union blog high-light an interesting initiative in the UK which aims at getting independents elected to the European Parliament. They are called Jury Team. While Federal Union think they are wrong way about the European Parliament saying we need more party based politics in parliament not less, I think the Jury Team could actually drum up interest in the European Elections. Independents are known for bringing people who feel unrepresented by political party’s out to vote.

Read full post

The second post is about Libertas and its recruitment for candidates for the European Elections.

Too lazy to run for election? Know a friend who would run? You both support Libertas? Great! Then nominate them as a candidate for Libertas in this years European Elections!

Full Post

Thanks to all who have rated so far! Only three months or so left in the competition!

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Would Libertas please make up its mind!

I’m fed up with news stories like this one from RTÉ.ie this morning, ‘Libertas may run candidates for Europe‘. This story gets trotted out every now and then but nothing ever happens with it. There is no talk of registering as a political party or anything like that, as of yet.

The Euro’s are only eight months away and any political party (new or old) would basically want to be picking there candidates this month or next so that after Christmas there is a straight run from the new Year to the election.

The next election might also see the first elections for trans-European political parties operating under there own banner, including Newropeans and Europe – Democracy – Esperanto, neither of which seam to be running candidates in Ireland.


Related Posts:
Newropeans, A new pan European Political Party