PollWatch: RED C/Paddy Power #aras11

The president of Ireland's residence in the Ph...
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So with the campaigning underway and nominations coming in, Paddy Power has commissioned RED C to undertake an opinion poll for the Presidential Election.

The results are interesting and changes are from the last RED C Poll in August.

  • Micheal D Higgins (Lab) 36% (-3)
  • Gay Mitchell (FG) 24% (-1)
  • Sean Gallagher (Ind) 21% (nc)
  • Mary Davies (Ind) 19% (+4)

The only candidate to rise in the poll is Mary Davies, which may show some momentum in the campaign as her profile rises. The drop in the support of the two party candidates will be a surprise to the teams, but may also serve to light the fire under them to get them working harder.

The other key finding of the poll in 33% of votes are undecided on who they will support. They are predominately young voters under 35.

While Sinn Fein have yet to announce a candidate, they possible will this weekend, this is the first poll with the four candidates and no “fantasy” candidate.

As the polls come in, during the campaign, I will again be doing a poll of polls. This is will be the initial poll.

Meanwhile in the betting stakes, also from Paddy Power, the odds are:

  • 8/13 Michael D.Higgins (from 4/7)
  • 3/1 Gay Mitchell
  • 13/2 Mary Davis
  • 8/1 Sean Gallagher (from 9/1)
  • 28/1 Mary Lou McDonald
  • 28/1 Martin McGuinness
  • 28/1 Michelle Gildernew

Its getting interesting.

The Next Election

Irish President Mary McAleese's entourage
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The next nationw-wide election we are due to have in Ireland is (barring a sudden General Election) is a Presidential Election. This is due at the latest October 2010 2011, but I have a feeling President Mary McAlees will finish out her term. To run for President you need to be a citizen of the states, over 35 and nominated in one of the following ways:

  • by 20 members of the Oireachtas
  • by four county or city councils
  • or if an incumbent or former president if you served one term, you can nominate yourself

Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, and Labour can each nominate on members of Oireachtas alone. There is a possibility of a Green/Ind candidate as they would have 21 members if they all backed one candidate.

Of course we hear many rumours about who will run and that, but here are what I have heard and a few predictions

Fianna Fail

There is no secret here that at Senator Mary White and MEP Brian Crowley both want the nomination. There is always talk of former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern running but I don’t see him getting many votes outside of Dublin. I think Crowley will be the Fianna Fail Nominee.

Fine Gael

In contrast to Fianna Fail, the Fine Gael crowd dont seem to want to rock the boat. The names I have heard mentioned are Avril Doyle, Mairead McGuinness and Sean Kelly. All current or former MEP’s. I am not sure who the nominee could be. I’m thinking it could be Kelly vs McGuinness for the nomination.

Labour Party

Micheal D Higgins name normally features in these discussions, but age this time could work against him. Ruairi Quinn, who didnt get elected as Ceann Comhairle, could try and run for the presidency instead. Ivana Bacik also could be the nominee hoping to follow in Mary Robinsons footsteps. Of course Labour could try and get someone from the SDLP in the Noth to run, like Bríd Rogers. I’m putting my money on Bacik though.

Sinn Fein

As this term of office will include the centenary of 1916, Sinn Fein would love to hold the highest office in land. Gerry Adams, Mary Lou McDonald and Michelle Gildernew have all been mentioned as possible candidates. As there is a bit of rift in the party between North and South at the moment, the South might prefer to have Mary Lou as the nominee.

Green Party

Eamon Ryan wanted to run last time round, will he try to run again? Can’t really think of anyone else from the Green ranks.

Independents

Dana Rosemary Scanlon could try and run again for the Presidency. I wouldn’t put it past Kathy Sinnott to give it a run. David Norris probably wont run, but it would be great if he did. Mary Robinson could of course run again as she only served one term.

2010 2011 will be an interesting election. I wonder will I have gotten many right?

In the betting stakes according to Paddy Power, Bertie Ahern is favourite to be the Next Irish President at 2/1, he is followed by Brian Crowley at 4/1. Check out the rest!

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7 Irish MEP Candidates sign the ILGA Pledge

ILGA-Europe (International Lesbian and Gay Association – Europe) have a petition for MEP candidates on its website.

ILGA-Europe is calling upon candidates for the European Parliament elections 2009 to sign this pledge to promote equality and to combat discrimination based on sexual orientation, gender identity and gender expression in their role as member of the European Parliament.

The 7 Irish MEP Candidates are:

  • Nessa Childers (Labour – Ireland East)
  • Pronsias De Rossa MEP (Labour – Ireland Dublin)
  • Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Fein – Ireland Dublin)
  • Dan Boyle (Green – Ireland South)
  • Susan O’Keefe (Labour – Ireland North-West)
  • Alan Kelly (Labour – Ireland South)
  • Joe Higgins (Socialist Party – Ireland Dublin)

Fair play to them for signing it. Susan O’Keeffe’s comment was really touching:

NO MORE PLEDGES

I PLEDGE TO WORK TOWARDS THE DAY WHEN NO MORE PLEDGES LIKE THIS ONE WILL BE REQUIRED. WE ARE EQUAL AND THAT’S ALWAYS WORTH FIGHTING FOR.

(Caps aren’t mine)

She makes a good point.

See who signed in your country

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Opinion Polls – 6 MEPs and 10% ahead for Fine Gael

Well Predict 09, the Burson – Marsteller study by Simon Hix (London School of Economics), Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin), and Nick Vivyan (London School of Economics), has updated its predictions. It is now predicting that the EPP will win 251 seats, up three from last prediction, the PES are predicted to win 211, up two from the previous predction.

They have also updated the country predictions. For Ireland they are forcasting the following.

  • Fine Gael 6 MEPs (31%) +1 (+3.2%)
  • Fianna Fail 4 MEPs (31%) -1 (+1.5%)
  • Labour 1 MEP (14%) nc (+3.4%)
  • Sinn Fein 0 MEPs (7.8%) -1 (-3.3%)
  • Green Party 0 MEPs (6.6%) nc (+2.3%)
  • Independents 1 MEP (9.2%) -1 (6.3%)

They predict that Sinn Fein’s Mary Lou McDonald will be the one to lose out in Dublin considering she holds Sinn Feins only European seat in the South. The independent they forcast losing the seat is the ALDE independent which is Marian Harkin in Ireland North-West. They are predicting that Sen Joe O’Reilly will take a second seat for Fine Gael in Ireland North-West. While this would be great, I don’t think it will be likely that Harkin will lose the seat. I think that Fianna Fail are in danger of loosing this seat since sitting MEP Seán Ó Neachtain will not be running. The current Fianna Fail candidate is Paschal Mooney a Leitrim Councillor but he would not be aswell known as many of the other candidates in the constituency. Last time out it took transfers from Dr. Jim McDaid TD to keep Fianna Fail in. I wonder will Fine Gael get the 6 seats?

The other poll is the Red C poll for the Sunday Business Post. The topline figures are as follows (from Irish Election):

  • Fine Gael 33% +2
  • Fianna Fail 23% -5
  • Labour 19% +2
  • Sinn Fein 8% +1
  • Greens 7% nc
  • Others/Independents 10%

This gives Fine Gael a full 10% lead over Fianna Fail. But should we be further ahead? When it came to the European and Local elections Fine Gael does lose out on votes to independents, but that is normal. Interestingly Libertas is only polling at 2%, so I doubt they will be gaining any seats in Ireland.

The poll was conducted earlier in the week before McGuiness’s outburst on the Late Late last night. I wonder will that effect how people perceive the Government?


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