If the polls are right…

Via HotAir

New York could become a Battle Ground State! Thats according to the latest Siena Poll the voting intentions were Obama 46% and McCain 41%. This is in comparison to last months poll which had Obama on 47% and McCain 39%. The gap is closing as there is less undecided voters.

New York is traditionally a Democrat state and hasn’t voted Republican since 1984. Will it change to a republican this year? If NY does change to a Battle Ground State then it will force Obama to spend money there to shore up support and means it cant invest it in other Battle Ground States, this could create a new dynamic in this years election as if NY becomes a Battle Ground State then that is 31 Electoral College votes up for grabs and would make it the largest one! Currently Florida is the largest Battle Ground State with 27 electoral college votes.

It will be a fun Fall (Autumn!!!)

I Support McCain/Palin – GET OVER IT!

So I posted before that I supported McCain/Palin and have it on MSN and GTalk that I support them and it has landed me in no ends of arguments with friends. I am a gay right wing conservative, yes not a lot of people can put those things together as I noted back in April but I seam to be getting it again, this time in Ireland from fellow Fine Gaelers!!! I dont get it! I really dont! But anyway anyone who tries to argue with me over who I support is fighting a losing battle, there is no way I could support Obama. Hes in experienced and has shown no initiative in his terms as State Senator or Senator to reform (unlike Palin). His VP pick of Biden made me more anti-Obama.

So I could right on and on about this but I ain’t the poeple arguing know who they are and can stop now please! Thanks

First in the Nation Race A Mistake?

Late last year and early this year, US States were battling each other to be the “First in the Nation” to vote on who will be the Presidential Candidates for the two major parties.

It worked for niether party. In this unprecented nomination battle, to took until Super Tuesday for a Republican Front Runner (which the media got wrong) to really come forward. With the democrats, all it did was lower the field to two.

Why is it Unprecented?
For me working from my living memory (i.e. the 2000 and 2004 nominations) by Super Tuesday or just after we knew who would be the Nominee for both parties. This year is the mother of nomination battles. Hukabee dropped out last night after a strong showing on Super Tuesday, but he couldnt match McCain. So McCain is the ‘presumptive’ nominee of the Republican Party.

The state of the Candidates, Delegate wise
Who is doing better Clinton or Obama?

Firstly these numbers all depend on which news organisation you follow so I will give a sample below.

CNN have Obama on 1,451 delegates and Clinton on 1,365. CBS have Obama on 1,512 and Clinton on 1,423. Fox News has Obama on 1,477 and Clinton on 1,391.

Has you can see Obama has about 100 delegates more then Clinton, but there are 601 delegates still up for grabs.

So which states have the voting power to decide who wins the Democratic Nomination?

Pennsylvania will be the last of the Delegate rich votes to go to the polls on April 22. Pennsylvania has 158 delegates. May 6th will see the next big numbers as Indiana (72 Delegates) and North Carolina (115 Delegates) go to the polls. If thats dosent produce a winner May 20th sees Kentucky (51 Delegates) and Oregen (52 Delegates). if that dosent produce a winner it could fall to Puerto Rico (55 Delegates) on June 7th, which will be the last nomination contest this year, to decide the Democrat Nomination. Still a few interesting battles ahead.

The Full list of states to vote are:
* Wyoming (Caucus) on March 8th, which has 12 Delegates,
* Mississippi (Primary) on March 11th, which has 33 Delegates,
* Pennsylvania (Primay) on April 22nd, which has 158 Delegates
* Guam (Caucus) on May 3rd, which has 4 Delegates,
* Indiana (Primary) on May 6th, which has 72 Delegates,
* North Carolina (Primary) on May 6th, which has 115 Delegates,
* West Virginia (Primary) on May 13th, which has 28 Delegates,
* Kentucky (Primary) on May 20th, which has 51 Delegates,
* Oregan (Primary) on May 20th, which has 52 Delegates,
* Montana (Primary) on June 3rd, which has 16 Delegates,
* South Dakota (Primary) on June 3rd, which has 15 Delegates,
* Puerto Rico (Caucus) on June 7th, which has 55 Delegates.

So who will win the Democratic Nomination?

There is a blog I subscribe to, Declarations of Pride, who seams to flip-flop (his words) between Hilary and Barack. But his latest post somes it up for me, especially the line

I know Obama can fix this country, but I think that Hillary WILL fix this country.

(His emphasis).

I think its going to be really close but PA will decide who gets it. If Clinton wins, she will be back on a roll and will give her momentum to win Indiana and North Carolina. If Obama wins PA, he will win Indiana and North Carolina. Whoever wins those 3 states has it won.

I made two predictions at the start of this year, with regards to nominations. I got the Republican one wrong (Guiliani) but I’m still looking okish on my Democratic Prediction (Clinton). I wonder will I be right?