Pollwatch: Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI 20th April

Green Party
Green Party (Photo credit: Neil Dorgan)

In continuation from the poll on the referendum in today’s Irish Times, tomorrows looks at party support. Polling was conducted on Monday and Tuesday by Ipsos MRBI. So this is post the major party conferences, Mahon and Household Charge.

The party support levels are:

  • Fine Gael, 33% (-3)
  • Labour, 13% (-6)
  • Fianna Fáil, 14% (-1)
  • Sinn Féin, 21% (+6)
  • Green Party, 2% (+1)
  • Independents/ Others, 17% (+3)

It is interesting to see the Green Party have their own line in a poll again but are still within the margin of error. Fine Gael are down for the first time in awhile but still have the largest support.

Labour continue to and seem to be loosing their support to Sinn Fein. There is no recovery either for Fianna Fail and they too slip, but are marginally ahead of Labour.

Sinn Fein are now solidified as the second most popular party, but if they cant get over there lack of attracting transfers it may still be hard for them to make large gains.

Independents again are a gainer but that can be hard to convert into seats as the vote is split among a wide range of groups.

The leader’s satisfaction’s are interesting in this poll they are:

  • Enda Kenny (FG): 42% (-10)
  • Eamon Gilmore (Lab): 41% (-14)
  • Gerry Adams (SF): 29% (-3)
  • Micheál Martin (FF): 24% (-5)

Overall Government satisfaction is at 23% which is down 14% since last October.

Fiscal Treaty Referendum: Thursday May 31st

The date has been set for the Fiscal Treaty Referendum and it will take place on Thursday May 31st. Polls will be open from 7am until 10pm.

The date was announced by An Táiniste Eamonn Gilmore in the Dáil this afternoon following a Cabinet Meeting this morning when the date was agreed upon.

There will be much disappointment that the vote will be held on a Thursday considering that Fine Gael and Labour regularly lambasted past Governments for holding elections on weekdays.

Fianna Fail leader, Micheal Martin has called on the Government to produce a white paper on the treaty to aid discussion and debate on the treaty.

The next step for the Government now will be to publish the bill to amend the Constitution to allow for the treaty to be ratified and then to set up a Referendum Commission to inform the public.

Campaigners have 64 days to persuade people of there arguments and with recent polls showing the Yes side in the lead with 60% its going to be a tough campaign!

Don’t forget you can read the treaty here!

#SE11: Cultural and Education Panel

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The count for the Cultural and Educational Panel came to a close yesterday evening with 5 candidates elected. They were in the following order:

  1. Clune, Deridre (FG)  10th Count (inside panel)
  2. Ó’Murchú, Labhras (FF) 13th Count (outside panel)
  3. Byrne, Thomas (FF) 13th Count (inside panel)
  4. Gilroy, John (Lab) 14th Count (inside panel)
  5. Mullins , Michael (FG) 14th Count (outside panel)

Mullins was elected without reaching the quota.

Personally I am delighted to see that Clune was elected to the Seanad. Nationally she is a very good politician and hopefully may be a useful example in why we should keep the Seanad.

The result was also good for Micheal Martin’s list, with Thomas Byrne being on that list and being elected, but he was out polled by Labhras who was not on the list. It will be interesting to see if the other panels follow suit.

Today the Agricultural panel is being counted and that will finish shortly. That will be followed by the Labour panel.

Check out SeanadCount.ie for results and Labour.ie’s primer for the panels.

The Fianna Fail Frontbench

Fianna Fallacy
Today Micheal Martin announced his knew frontbench. It would seem that their is a job for everyone in the Fianna Fail Parliamentary Party, plus a councillor. Here is the full list:
  • Leader and Spokesperson on Northern Ireland: Micheál Martin TD
  • Deputy Leader and Spokesperson on Finance: Brian Lenihan TD
  • Spokesperson on Foreign Affairs and Trade (also Party Whip): Seán Ó Fearghail TD
  • Spokesperson on Public Expenditure and Financial Sector Reform: Michael McGrath TD
  • Spokesperson on Public Sector Reform: Sean Fleming TD
  • Spokesperson on Education and Skills: Brendan Smith TD
  • Spokesperson on Social Protection: Barry Cowen TD
  • Spokesperson on Environment, Community and Local Government: Niall Collins TD
  • Spokesperson on Enterprise, Jobs and Innovation: Willie O’Dea TD
  • Spokesperson on Children: Charlie McConalogue TD
  • Spokesperson on Justice, Equality and Defence: Dara Calleary TD
  • Spokesperson on Health: Billy Kelleher TD
  • Spokesperson on Transport, Tourism and Sport: Timmy Dooley TD
  • Spokesperson on Communications, Energy and Natural Resources: Eamon Ó Cuiv TD
  • Spokesperson on Agriculture and Food: Michael Moynihan TD
  • Spokesperson on Arts and Heritage: Robert Troy TD
  • Spokesperson on Marine and Fisheries: John Browne TD
  • Spokesperson on Horticulture and Rural Affairs: Seamus Kirk TD
  • Spokesperson on Housing, Planning and Gaeltacht Affairs: Micheal Kitt TD
  • Spokesperson on Small Business Regulatory Framework: John McGuinness TD (also Fianna Fáil nominee for Chair of the Public Accounts Committee)
  • Legal Adviser: Cllr Jim O’Callaghan

List from theJournal.ie

Irish Examiner\Red C – Cork South Central Poll

Election Poster

The 2nd constituency in Cork to polled this week after Cork North Central’s poll on Monday for the Irish Times.

The Irish Examiner commissioned a phone survey of 500 voters in Cork South Central. The results are as follows:

  • Simon Coveney (FG) 19%;
  • Micheál Martin (FF) 18%;
  • Ciarán Lynch (Lab) 14%;
  • Michael McGrath (FF) 9%;
  • Jerry Buttimer (FG) 9%;
  • Deirdre Clune (FG) 8%;
  • Chris O’Leary (SF) 8%;
  • Paula Desmond (Lab) 5%;
  • Michael Finn (Ind) 5%;
  • Dan Boyle (GP) 3%;
  • David McCarthy (Ind) on 2%

A transfer analysis was also done and it shows that the following would be elected:

  • Simon Coveny (FG)
  • Micheal Martin (FF)
  • Ciaran Lynch (Lab)
  • Deridre Clune (FG)
  • Jerry Buttimer (FG)

Its an interesting result, but I wonder will it pan out that way on friday week?

If Fine Gael are to have a hope of one party government they will need three seats here in Cork South Central. But the last seat will go down to fight, it will be neck and neck between Buttimer or Clune and McGrath, perhaps with the last two candidates being elected without reaching the quota? I have a feeling we will be in for a long count in Cork South Central.

UPDATE: The full report is here

Poll Update: Sunday Business Post/Red C

Cyprian Brady

As I was away I am only getting to update the blog about the poll that came out over the weekend. The topline figures were as follows:

  • Fianna Fail 17% -1
  • Fine Gael 35% -2
  • Labour 22% +3
  • Sinn Fein 13% +1
  • Greens 2% -1
  • Other 11% NC

This would to a seat distribution of

  • Fianna Fail 20
  • Fine Gael 64
  • Labour 47
  • Sinn Fein 17
  • Greens 0
  • Others 18

This has made the following changes to the Poll of Polls.

  • Fianna Fail 16.5%
  • Fine Gael 33.75%
  • Labour 22%
  • Greens 1.75%
  • Sinn Fein 12.5%
  • Other 13%

I am assuming that there will be polls on Wednesday or Thursday following the Debate tonight between Micheal Martin and Eamonn Gilmore, which Enda Kenny will not take part in.

Its going to be an interesting week for polls. It will be interesting to see if the debates make an impact.

The Fianna Fail Heave

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So Fianna Fail are as divided as Fine Gael was last summer. The Fianna Fail parliamentary party meeting gets under way at 5:30pm and is expected to last until around 9pm. The wording of the motion to be debated is reported to be

“That the Fianna  Fáil parliamentary party has confidence in Brian Cowen TD as leader of Fianna Fáil.”

Its been a tough week for Brian Cowen in his office as Taoiseach and Leader of Fianna Fail and has fast fallen from approval with both the public and his party.

On Sunday Cowen made a big mistake in relation to this heave. He should have accepted Michaél Martin’s resignation. For how can he keep someone in his cabinet that has no confidence in him. This is the approach Enda took with Richard Bruton and it probably helped save him as it showed he could take decisive action. Cowen has proven yet again that he cannot make the hard decision.

Listening to Mr Cowen on Six One news last night it struck me again how useless Cowen is at communicating. He started on about “transformative changes” rather then just saying “changes”, which would have been enough for most people.

I am not sure if Michaél Martin is the best person to lead the Fianna Fail party, but his actions this weekends show that he has balls, and will make a decision, eventually!

Is this what we are going to be left with? A Fianna Fail government afraid to make a decision. We are in a bad financial state as it is. This Government needs to go. This sorry saga shows that Fianna Fail is putting itself first. TD’s are worried about their seats and no they are in jeopardy if Cowen stays on as leader. But do they have the guts to sack him? I don’t think so.

Communicating Europe

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This arrived in my inbox today. It may be of interest to some readers!

You may wish to be aware that Mr. Micheál Martin, T.D., Minister for Foreign Affairs, has announced details of the 2010 Communicating Europe Initiative. Applications for funding are invited from voluntary organisations and education bodies who are interested in raising awareness about how the European Union matters in their community.

Consideration will also be given to proposals for events, large or small, that are organised to celebrate Europe Day. Europe Day, which takes place on 9 May each year, is an opportunity for citizens throughout Europe to celebrate the EU’s achievements and to reflect upon the Union’s aim to promote peace, its values and the well-being of its peoples.

Minister Martin said:

“Last October, the Irish people wholeheartedly reaffirmed their desire for Ireland to remain at the heart of Europe. Voluntary organisations and education bodies played a vital role in raising awareness of how the EU matters in their communities and supporting their efforts continues to be a key priority for me.

I look forward to receiving applications under this year’s Communicating Europe Initiative. Events commemorating Europe Day on 9 May are a great way for Irish citizens to join with their fellow Europeans in celebrating the achievements of the EU and I am delighted that such events are among those that can be supported under the Communicating Europe Initiative.”

Application forms and further details are available from our website: www.eumatters.ie or by contacting the undersigned.

The closing date for the receipt of applications for the current round of funding is 5 March 2010

Maura Duffy
EU Secretariat & Communicating Europe
EU Division
Department of Foreign Affairs
76-78 Harcourt Street
Dublin 2
Ph:  (+353 1) 408 2500
Fas: (+353 1) 475 2002
email: maura.duffy@dfa.ie

If you know of any events planned for Europe Day, let me know and I will advertise them free!

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