Ireland no longer Favourite to Win Eurovision

The days after Dustin won Eurosong saw Ireland top the betting tables as favourite to win the Eurovision Song Contest. Today that is no longer the case. Russia is now the favourite to win Eurovision. I must say I am delighted at this. A proper song is now favourite and it is a good song. Dima Bilan, Russia’s representative this year, will sail from the Semi’s as the song is proving very popular and is produced by Timbaland.

What are the odds?

According to Paddy Power Russia is at 4-1 to win the Eurovision Song Contest and according to BestBetting Russia also at 4-1. Ireland has slipped back to third place on Paddy Power’s odds, at 5-1, but is back in fourth on BestBetting, at 10-1. Serbia is seconded favourite at 9-2 according to PaddyPower and 6-1 at BestBetting. BestBetting also have Armenia ahead of Ireland at 7-1, while Paddy Power have them in fouth at 10-2.

Who arent worth backing according to the odds?

Here are the countries forcasted not to well. Paddy Power have Montenegro, Moldova, Netherlands and San Marino at 150-1. Paddy Power also has Cyprus, Lithuania, Belarus, Czech Republic, Croatia and FYR Macedonia at 100-1. Best Betting has Moldova and Montenegro at 500-1. Just ahead of them at 300-1 is San Marino and the Czech Republic. At 250-1 is FYR Macedonia, Netherlands, and Lithuania. At 150-1 is Croatia, the UK and Cyprus. Note to self do not support these acts this year!

I know I have previewed the First Semi, the Second Semi will be up by weeks end! (I hope!)


‘My only Fear is voters all over the world will say "vote for the turkey" and people will take it to mean "vote for Turkey" ‘

Could this be Irelands Downfall? This “fear” was posted on the ToytownGermany Eurovison Thread. Its a good point maybe Dustin should become a Duck for Eurovision? 😛

I seam to be in the small minority of people who think that Ireland will not get out of the Semi-Final. Bestbetting (5.4-1) currently have Ireland as favourites to WIN eurovision!?! (Serbia are second). According to Paddy Power Ireland are 1-5 to get out of the Semi and are also favourites to win the contest (4-1)! (They have Ukraine, Romania and Latvia second favourites)

I suppose the huge media interest in Dustin will ensure he is well known across Europe, but will the televoters pluck up the courage to vote for him?

As an Irish person living in Germany, I’m not sure If I will vote for Dustin, but I suppose I will vote for Ireland in the Semi, I’m not so sure about the final though.

Thankfully I have found a prediction that does not agree with the betting odds, though its based on past voting patterns and does not include San Marinos or Azerbaijan votes. in its prediction (its just for fun, but I like to see it as supporting my stance!) the following 9 countries will get through (points in brackets):

1. Russia (108)
2. Romania (94)
3. Greece (91)
4. Estonia (77)
5. Israel (75)
6. Armenia (75)
7. Finland (73)
8. Netherlands (73)
9. Norway (72)
10. Jury Selection

Of course this a pure mathamatical prediction, the songs picked or performances have no sway. 114 points are not allocated (San Marino and Azerbaijan)

Ireland will get 25 points (I wouldnt agree with that) and only gets points from Andorra (2), Armenia (2), Estonia (6), Finland (3), Norway (8) and Romania (4).

Irish votes will go to:
Greece (1)
Israel (2)
Romania (3)
Russia (4)
Slovenia (5)
Poland (6)
Netherlands (7)
Norway (8)
Belgium (10)
Estonia (12)

In theire assement of Ireland its has to following to say (this is in terms of past support)

IRELAND may have the best Eurovision history, but the last few years have been generally disappointing and with all of Ireland’s biggest supporters, including the U.K., Lithuania, Hungary and Portugal being involved in the second semi-final, it looks like an Irish entry may not qualify, for the second time in four years. With Irish televoters favourites, the U.K. and Lithuania not in this semi-final field, the Irish points could go to Estonia, Belgium, a country traditionally favoured by the Irish or even Poland, which has a large emigrant population in Ireland.

Stay tuned for (maybe) some live blogging of the German final tonight.