Super Tuesday: No clean sweep, but Romney still the frontrunner

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With the majority of the results in for the ten states holding Primary Contests for the Republican Party Presidential Nominee, Mitt Romney has managed to win six of those states including the Ohio. Rick Santorum managed to win four states and came second in a number of them. Newt Gingrich managed to win in his home state of Georgia, but his southern strategy seems to have faltered in other states.

Delegate Projections

After the contests, Romney has opened a good lead on delegate projections. According to Google Politics Romney now has 415 delegates. Rick Santorum has 176, Newt Gingrich 105 and Ron Paul 47. With the elusive figure of 1,144 still a good distance away it is still an open race with states with big delegations still to vote.

All delegate projections for each state are taken from Google Politics and Elections

Alaska

In the Alaska Caucus Romney won a third of the vote, while Santorum came 2nd on 29%. Ron Paul hoped to do well here and he manged third 24% while Gingrich came last on 14%. The delegates split as follows, Romney 8, Santorum 7, Paul 6, Ginrich 3.

Georgia

Georgia is Newt Gingrich’s second win in this primary cycle. Georgia is of course his home state which he represented in Congress. For that he was rewarded with nearly half the vote on 47%. Romney managed second place on 26% and Santorum third on 20%. Ron Paul trailed badly here on 6%. The delegates will be split Gingrich 46, Romney 13 and Santorum 2.

Idaho

In Idaho Mitt Romney swept the boards winning 62% of the vote at the Caucus. He takes all of Idaho’s 32 delegates. Santorum and Ron Paul were tied for second place on 18% with Gingrich on 2%.

Massachusetts

Massachusetts proved to be an even better results for Romney as won over 72% of the Primary vote. Romney has proven that he is still popular in the state where he used to be Govenor. He takes all 38 delegates from Massachusetts. Santorum finished on 12%, Paul on 10% and Gingrich on 5%.

North Dakota

North Dakota had some good news for Rick Santorum as 40% of Caucus goers suppored him. Ron Paul came second here on 28% with Romney close behind on 24%. Gingrich again brought up the rear with 8%. The delegates will be distributed as follows, Santorum 11, Paul 8, Romney 7 and Gingrich 2.

Ohio

Ohio the bell-weather state which is normally pivotal in  the Presidential Election proved to be pivotal in this years republican primary also. While Santorum had some difficulties over not registering delegate slates correctly, it was a state that was neck and neck in the final opinion polls. In the end Romney won the state on 38% but Santorum was only pipped to the post as he ended on 37%. Gingrich managed to come third here on 15% beating Paul who finished on 9%. The delegates will split 35 to Romney and 21 to Santorum

Oklahoma

The conservative voters of Oklahoma backed Rick Santorum as their guy in their primary giving him 37% of the vote. Mitt Romney finsihed second 28% while Gingrich’s southern strategy got him a third place finish with 27% and Paul came last on 10%. The delegates split 14 to Santorum an 13 each to Romney and Gingrich.

Tennessee

Tennessee proved to be another good state for Rick Santorum. Here he won on 37% of vote leaving Mitt Romney trail on 28%. Newt Gingrich came third on 24% while Ron Paul came last on 9%. The delegates will split Santorum 25,  Romney 10 and Gingrich 8.

Vermont

Back in Vermont it was good news for Mitt Romney in a state that borders Massachusetts. Here he won 40% of the vote with Ron Paul finishing in second on 25%. Santorum was close behind on 24% with Gingrich trailing on 8%. The delegates split Romney 9 and Santorum and Paul both get 4.

Virginia

In Virginia it was Mitt Romney versus Ron Paul, as the other candidates failed to get on the ballot. Mitt Romney easily won on 60% of the vote, leaving Paul with 40%. This results means that Romney takes 43 of the delegates and Paul takes 3.

Analysis

Romney retains his lead, but yet again Santorum highlights Romney’s lack of support among conservative voters. While Romney has picked up some high profile endorsements this week its not all in the bag just yet. Santorum continues to bring the fight as can be seen by the close results in many states, especially Ohio.

Newt Gingrich seriously needs to look at his game plan, while he has won two states (South Carolina and Georgia) he is trailing 3rd in most Southern States and is in fact last in many states outside of the south. He needs to reconsider his plan, or drop out and endorse Santorum.

Ron Paul at this point just hopes to be King-maker at the Convention in Tampa. He is steadily picking up delegates in the proportional primaries and is focusing especially on caucus’s where he does seem to do quite well. I can’t see him winning any race, but whether or not becomes King-maker will be interesting.

The next contest are on Saturday with Caucus’s in Kansas, Guam, Northern Marina Islands and the US Virgin Islands.

Its Super Tuesday!

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Today ten states hold their Republican Primaries today to chose their nominee for the Presidential Election this November. Between them 416 (18.2% of the total delegates) are up for grabs today, but the amount available in each state varies from 17 delegates in Vermont to 76 in Georgia. The following are the states voting today.

  • Alaska (24),
  • Georgia (76),
  • Idaho (32),
  • Massachusetts (38),
  • North Dakota (25),
  • Ohio (63),
  • Oklahoma (40),
  • Tennessee (55),
  • Vermont (17),
  • Virginia (46)

Mitt Romney goes into today after winning the last five Republican contests (Maine, Arizona, Michigan, Wyoming and Washington) but it still could all be upset if former Rick Santorum could stage an upset especially as it is a virtual tie in Ohio, which is normally a swing state in the Presidential Election and so tonight could prove critical.

Newt Gingrich has home state advantage in Georgia according to polling and should win there, but its not looking good for him anywhere else.

In Virginia only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul made it on to the ballot and could be Paul’s first victory in the race for the nomination.

But if all goes well Mitt Romney may solidify his front runner status if he wins enough delegates and creates a big enough gap. He certainly is able to outspend the rest of the contenders and with the Super-PACS taking big media buys in the large states he should do quite well. Also with the state he used to be Governor of voting, Massachusetts, he should do well there.

NBC have a great guide to the states that are voting (PDF).

US Midterm Predictions

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As promised yesterday, here are some predictions for the US Midterms.

Senate

In the senate the Republicans need to win 10 seats to gain control of senate. I think they will pick up 12 seats including: Nevada, Florida and Illinois. I think Fiorina will just lose out to Boxer in California, but I am hoping to be wrong on that one!

House

In the House I think the Republicans will end up with between 225 and 235 seats. This could be conservative, but the house is a lot harder to predict.

Govenor

In the various races for the Statehouses, California returning to Democratic control is a foregone conclusion. I think Illinois and Ohio will go Republican. I think Lincoln Chafe (ind) will win in Rhode Island.

Have you any predictions to share?

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US Midterm Elections

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So Tuesday is the first electoral test faced by President Obama, since his election in 2008. That year also saw much celebration by the Democrats as they won many seats in the Senate and House of Representatives as well as a number of state houses. This year that could change. The Republicans look set to win a number of Senate and House seats, this could be because of or despite of the Tea Party.

Senate

There are a number of very interesting Senate races this year. They are mainly in the west. Two that I will be watching closely will be Carly Fiorina’s bid to unseat Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer in California. Most of the polling have Boxer retaining her seat, but not by a very wide margin. Most give Ma’am Boxer a margin of between 3 and 8%, so this could be an interesting race.

The other race I will be watching closely will be Senate Majority Leader’s Harry Reid’s attempt to hold his seat against Republican Sharron Angle in Nevada. This is a loss that will be a great victory for the republicans, but if he hangs on, there wont be much for the Republicans to gloat about.

Of couse their are other races to watch. They include the race for Obama’s old seat in Illinois. It looks like that will be a very close one. Republican Mark Kirk looks set to win the seat and defeat the Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, as he has fallen behind in recent polling.

Other races that will be interesting are Florida, West Virgina and Alaska. It will be interesting to see how Christine O’Donnell does in Delaware. The big question here is, will Republicans get a majority? I think they will get a bare majority of 51 to 49.

House

The US House of Representatives is always interesting as the entire house is up for re-election. Here there is set to be a big change. The current state of play is the Democrats have 256 seats and the Republicans have 179. The Republicans need to gain 39 seats to gain control. Most forecast have them winning 40-60 seats so it is expected to see a good few seats change hands. And of course the results of this election will give us a better view of Democratic’s position across the country.

Some of the races to watch are Arkansas’s 1st District, Delaware’s At-Large District, Florida’s 2nd, 8th and 22nd Districts and Idaho’s 1st District.

Governors

39 state governorships are up for grabs also on Tuesday. A few of these are very interesting. In Rhode Island, independent Lincoln Chafee is leading the race to become senator. He was a former Republican senator but endorsed Obama in 2008 and this has led to an interesting race.

In Vermont, Republican Brian Dubie and Democrat Peter Shumlin are in a close battle for the Governorship. In current polling there is a 1% gap!

In Florida, Democrat and Chief Finance Officer of Florida, Alex Sink is locked in battle with Republican and Health Care Activist Rick Scott. In some polls there is no difference between them!

Other states that will be interesting to watch include Obama’s home state of Illinois, where the Republicans could gain. Other states I will be watching Ohio, Oregon and Minnesota.

So I will be getting up early on Wednesday morning (as I have work) to catch up with what has happened and see how it may pan out. Should I make predictions? Maybe tomorrow!

Have you got any tips before I make them?

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