In yesterday’s (Sunday 21st April) Sunday Business Post we were blessed with not one, not two, but three polls! One on if there was a General Election, one for the Europeans and one for the Locals.
Red C interviewed a sample of 1000 adults between April 11th and 17th. There is a margin of error of +/- 3%.
Around 20% of voters are undecided with five weeks to go to Election day on May 24th
Lets take a look at the General Election figures 1st (change is in relation to last poll at end of March)
Fine Gael 33% (+2 in three weeks)
Fianna Fáil 23% (-2)
Sinn Féin 14% (+1)
Independents 16% (+1)
SocDems 2% (-1)
Ind Alliance 2% (-1)
Sol-PBP 1 %(-1)
Aontú 1% (+1)
A good poll for Fine Gael who have a 10 point lead on Fianna Fail. Labour, the Green Party, SocDems and the smaller parties are failing to get into double digits, with only Sinn Fein and Independents making a challenge with 14% and 16% respectively.
Next we look at the European Parliament voting intentions.
Fine Gael 33%
Fianna Fáil 21%
Sinn Féin 16%
Ind Alliance 2%
Sol-PBP 1< %
This poll should see Fine Gael retain its four seats in the European Parliament, while Fianna Fail should see them win three seats (one in each constituency). Sinn Fein’s result should see them hold at least 2 out of their 3 seats, but with a good chance of returning all 3. The other seats will go to a mix of the smaller parties and independents. Of course this will all depend on whether we have 11 seats or 13 seats and what way the 20% undecided voters split between now and election day.
And finally the local elections
Fine Gael 27%
Fianna Fáil 20%
Sinn Féin 15%
Ind Alliance 4%
Sol-PBP <1 %
This poll would see Fine Gael increase its support by 3% on the 2014 Local Election which Fianna Fail would slip back by 5.5% on the 2014 results. But with a large number of voters undecided and the personal vote of a number high-profile of a number of local election candidate it is hard to predict the number of seats for each party.
Yesterday’s Sunday Business Post had a poll on Party Support and the upcoming treaty referendum. For the referendum the Yes side has much to be comforted by. The results are:
Yes: 53% (+6)
No: 31% (-4)
Don’t Know: 16% (-2)
When you exclude the Don’t Know yes side lead 63% to 37%. This shows the strength of the Yes side before the entry of Declan Ganley to the debate so it will be interesting to see if his contribution makes any difference.
In terms of party support the only major statistical movement is drop below 30%. The party support is as follows:
Fine Gael 29% (-3)
Labour 13% (-1)
Sinn Fein 21% (+1)
Fianna Fail 19% (+2)
Others 18% (nc)
Fianna Fail, who have been in the news a lot lately thanks to Eamonn O Cuiv, seems to have gotten a bit of a bounce from that. Sinn Fein remains the second most popular party in Ireland, but I still believe transfers will still be hard to come by for them.
The Government Parties have seen a drop in support which is probably due to the treaty campaign as much criticism has been laid at how the country is being run.
But over all, the movement is all within the margin of error, but trends are starting to set in.
Yesterday’s Sunday Business Post had a Red C poll on the treaty referendum and on party support, so it made for interesting reading on the way home from Dublin (hence why this post is late). On the treaty it has shown some slight movement and it is the same story with party support.
The headline figures on the treaty are:
Yes 47% (-2)
No 35% (+2)
Don’t Know 18% (nc)
When the Don’t Know’s are excluded the figures are:
Yes 58% (-2)
No 42% (+2)
With the changes all within the margin of error, it is still all to play for. And with the campaign getting officially underway today expect a lot more polls!
In terms of party support the figures are as follows:
Fine Gael 32% (-2)
Labour 14% (-1)
Fianna Fail 17% (+1)
Sinn Fein 19% (+1)
Others 18% (+1)
All the changes again are within the margin of error. So no major changes. Interesting to note that Government Parties support is down, while opposition is up. But with no major changes its hard to make any long term predictions on it.
There is an interesting poll in tomorrows Sunday Business Post by Red C on both Party support and the fiscal treaty referendum. It is worth nothing that the poll was taken before the announcement on a deal on the Promissory Note and the Mahon Tribunal Report .
The top-line figures for party support are as follows:
Fine Gael 34% (+4)
Labour 15% (-1)
Fianna Fail 16% (-1)
Sinn Fein 18% (nc)
Ind/others 17% (-2)
Fine Gael manage get to get a four point bump in the poll this month. I am not sure exactly why considering all the major developments happened after the respondents were polled! Of course with the Ard Fheis next weekend there has been some mention of that. Labour and Fianna Fail both continue their slow slide, but of course the next poll will the most important one for Fianna Fail. If their move to kick Bertie Ahern and others mentioned in the Mahon Report are the right moves to keep support from the voters. Also it shows the Fianna Fail Ard Fheis and the apology has not helped with the polls.
Labours as the junior coalition party seem to be the ones suffering from policies implemented as there voters do not seem to agree. Of course with their National Conference coming up they could manage to stake out their own course after that.
On the treaty referendum the poll found the following:
Yes 49% (+5)
Undecided 18% (-9)
When the undecided’s are excluded it is
Which is no change from the polls earlier this month. The campaigns have yet to get under way, but with the undecided’s splitting evenly at the moment it might not be tight, but lets not get complacent!
The Sunday Business Post has two polls for us about the Irish Presidential Election. It has one poll with the 5 nominated candidates so far and one poll with the 7 candidates who will most likely be on the ballot on October 27th.
In the 5 Candidate poll the 1st preference vote would look as follows:
Higgins, Michael D (Lab) 27%
McGuinness, Martin (SF) 20%
Davis, Mary (Ind) 20%
Mitchell, Gay (FG) 15%
Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 15%
This poll is interesting as it has Davis level with McGuinness, but with Sinn Fein being transfer toxic, Davis could be the one to make it to the final count with Higgins.
In the 7 candidate the poll, the first preferences are as follows:
Norris, David (Ind) 21%
Higgins, Michael D (Ind) 18%
McGuinness, Martin (SF) 16%
Davis, Mary (Ind) 13%
Mitchell, Gay (FG) 13%
Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 11%
Scanlon, Dana Rosemary (Ind) 6%
When Senator Norris is added in to the poll he takes a margin of error lead over Higgins. Davis falls back to tie with Fine Gael’s Mitchell who does not seem to be making much of an impact in the campaign.
Of course with this many candidates in the race it will all come down to transfers. With this looking like the first Presidential Election to go further then two counts, where the transfers go will be what is important. RED C have polled this and the results are interesting.
Norris, David (Ind) 6%
Higgins, Michael D (Ind) 20%
McGuinness, Martin (SF) 8%
Davis, Mary (Ind) 16%
Mitchell, Gay (FG) 14%
Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 14%
Scanlon, Dana Rosemary (Ind) 7%
This is where the campaign for Norris falls down as he comes last in terms of 2nd preferences where he is beaten by McGuinness and Dana. This would spell disaster as both Higgins and Davis could easily gain enough transfers to leapfrog him and leave it as a two horse race. Unless Norris can get a larger lead, he may win the first count but ultimately lose the election. The beauty of the Irish Electoral System?
The Sunday Independent has two polls in it today in relation to the Presidential Election today. I am going to ignore the “less scientific, Sunday Independent/ Quantum Research” poll.
The poll found support for the declared candidates as follows:
Michael D Higgins 32% (Lab)
David Norris 19% (Ind)
Mary Davis 18% (Ind)
Gay Mitchell 17% (FG)
Sean Gallagher 14% (Ind)
While this poll was taken before Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein entered the race, it is still interesting.
Sean Gallagher is starting to lag behind the other candidates in the poll while Mary Davis is starting to pick up speed and has jumped ahead of Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell who’s campaign does not seem to be gaining traction despite the support for Fine Gael being 40% in the polls.
David Norris’s support level is quite surprising, while at least he is second he is a good 13% behind Labour’s Micheal D Higgins who is managing to retain the top spot.
The entry of Martin McGuinness could change this balance. But with the possiblity of Norris and Labhrás O Muchú of Fianna Fail being added to the field, it wont be until Friday and the close of nominations that we have any idea what will happen. Then the polls will get very interesting.
So today we saw the first poll since the general election published in the Sunday Business Post. It was conducted by Red C. All figures are on difference since the election. The topline figures are:
Fine Gael 39% (+3)
Labour 18% (-1)
Fianna Fail 16% (-1)
Sinn Fein 11% (+1)
An interesting poll. Maybe people are regretting not voting for a majority Fine Gael government? That or is the sign that Red C over estimate Fine Gael support by about 3%. Pity we won’t know until the local and european elections in 2014. Unless something dramatic happens. I am not surprised at this poll. The government is still in a honeymoon period with the voters, unlike in the media. All the bad news can still be associated with the previous Fianna Fail Government, but this wont last long.
It must be said the Fine Gael ministers have been playing a blinder and are not getting as hit hard by the media or the voters as Labour Ministers. It will be interesting if this trend continues.
It is interesting to note that the Green Party has been lumped into the “others” category. It will be strange not seeing them in polls.
The second last poll of the campaign will be in the Irish Indepdent by Milward Brown. The topline figures are as follows:
Fianna Fail 14% (-2)
Fine Gael 38% (+1)
Labour 20% (nc)
Green Party 1% (nc)
Sinn Fein 11% (-1)
Others 16% (+2)
An interesting poll. Shows that Fine Gael are holding strong. Labour have managed to halt their slide, while Fianna Fail have lost some of the support they had regained. It will be interesting to see if this impacts on the debate tonight. Will Gilmore relax a bit or will Martin go for jugular.
I have a feeling we will have a few polls this week as in we enter the last lap and the Irish Times have an Ipsos MRBI poll in tomorrows paper. The topline figures are:
Fianna Fail 16% (+1)
Fine Gael 37% (+4)
Labour 19% (-5)
Greens 2% (+1)
Sinn Fein 11% (-1)
Others 15 (nc)
This poll confirms the results of the polls in Sunday’s papers. Labour seem to have made a massive mistake in their camapign and are now paying the price as voters either return to Fianna Fail or move to Fine Gael.
Fine Gael continue their rise and the possibility of single party government. The fact that Enda’s popularity has risen, just the same as the party’s support. In this poll Enda is on 37%, the exact same as party support.
There is still a lot to play for as 19% of the electorate are undecided on who to vote for.
The poll of polls, which is unweighted and highly suspect, but interesting all the same stands as follows:
Fianna Fail 15%
Fine Gael 36.3%
Sinn Fein 11.5%
Lets see what happens this week, in case anything goes wrong for the other parties.
Its five days to polling day and the Sunday Business Post have their last opinion poll of the campaign. The headline figures are as follows:
Fianna Fail 16% (+1)
Fine Gael 39% (+1)
Labour 17% (-3)
Greens 2% (-1)
Sinn Fein 12% (+2)
Independents 14% (NC)
This poll shows some recovery for Fianna Fail and another advance for Fine Gael who are really approaching 40% and possible overall majority. This poll really shows that Labour are floundering. They haven’t hit home with their attacks and are driving people away.
The second poll in the Sunday Independent has topline figures as follows:
Fianna Fail 16% (+4)
Fine Gael 37% (-1)
Labour 20% (+3)
Greens 1% (nc)
Sinn Fein 12% (+2)
Independents 14 (+2)
There is a surprising amount of similarities between the polls. Granted the Sindo do show Fine Gael down, its only by 1%. But the Sindo also show that Labour is in trouble. I have a feeling there will be a lot of soul searching in Labour HQ today and tomorrow. Fianna Fail look set to stay at 16% and I would be surprised if that changed much in the next 5 days.
The seat predictions are as follows:
Fianna Fail 23
Fine Gael 75
Sinn Fein 13
Poll of Polls
With the addition of these two polls, the rough poll of polls stands as follows: