Pollwatch: Sunday Business Post/Red C October 16th

Michael D Banner

Tomorrow the Sunday Business  Post have a Red C poll for the Presidential Election. The comparison is with the Red C poll for Paddy Power on October 6th. The field work for this poll was done between Monday and Wednesday so does not include any changes, if any, after the Prime Time debate.

  • Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 39% (+18)
  • Higgins, Michael D (Lab) 27% (+2)
  • McGuinness, Martin (SF) 13% (-3)
  • Mitchell, Gay (FG) 8% (-2)
  • Norris, David (Ind) 7% (-7)
  • Davis, Mary (Ind) 4% (-5)
  • Scallon, Dana Rosemary 2% (-3)

The major change in this poll is the massive 18% leap in support for Sean Gallagher. It is becoming a two horse race between Gallagher and Michael D Higgins of Labour as they are the only candidates to see a rise in support.

All the other candidates have seen a drop in support, and independent Senator David Norris who has seen his support halved from 14% t0 7%. The other candidates have all seen their support drop between 2-5%.

The rise the Fine Gael were hoping to see for Gay Mitchell does not seem to have materialised as he drops 2%. But have the attacks on Martin McGuinness had some effect as he has dropped 3% in the poll?

Of course, no polls seem to be agreeing over a week so it will be interesting if next week the polls will change as the debate and revelations from Dana have any effect in the next set of polls, and of course will the media turn their attention on the leading candidates and change it all again?

Pollwatch: Catch up, October 6th Polls

The Poster Campaign: Gay Mitchell For President
Image by infomatique via Flickr

Its been a busy week here and I have managed to miss to polls that were published last Thursday, the 6th of October. The first poll was in the Irish Times and was carried out by Ipsos MRBI. The figures were as follows:

  • Higgins, Michael D (Lab) 23%
  • Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 20%
  • McGuinness, Martin (SF) 19%
  • Davis, Mary (Ind) 12%
  • Norris, David (Ind) 11%
  • Mitchell, Gay (FG) 9%
  • Scallon, Dana Rosemary (Ind) 6%

In the second poll by Red C for Paddy Power showed a similar result.

  • Higgins, Michael D (Lab) 25%
  • Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 21%
  • McGuinness, Martin (SF) 16%
  • Norris, David (Ind) 14%
  • Mitchell, Gay (FG) 10%
  • Davis, Mary (Ind) 9%
  • Scallon, Dana Rosemary (Ind) 5%

The polls are interesting to look at as they really are within the margin of error of 3%. The other fact to take in these polls is the collapse in the support for Senator David Norris. It seemed that he enjoyed more support when he wasnt on the ballot paper.

The surprise of the polls  is that Sean Gallagher is now the second favourite. This of course can be seen by the media now turning their attention to him and his past.

That is the one commonality in this campaign. As a candidate starts to climb in the polls, the media turns against them. Is that how we want our campaigns run?

Also if your not sure which way to vote, Votomatic is back to help you decide! I did it earlier and it suggested I vote in the following way:

  1. Mary Davis,
  2. Micheal D Higgins,
  3. Sean Gallagher,
  4. Martin McGuinness,
  5. David Norris,
  6. Dana Rosemary Scallon,
  7. Gay Mitchell.

With 16 days left in the campaign we will have plenty of polls and I will endeavour to keep on top of them. It will be interesting if the media can influence any further change in the polls. Interesting times ahead.