In yesterday’s (Sunday 21st April) Sunday Business Post we were blessed with not one, not two, but three polls! One on if there was a General Election, one for the Europeans and one for the Locals.
Red C interviewed a sample of 1000 adults between April 11th and 17th. There is a margin of error of +/- 3%.
Around 20% of voters are undecided with five weeks to go to Election day on May 24th
Lets take a look at the General Election figures 1st (change is in relation to last poll at end of March)
Fine Gael 33% (+2 in three weeks)
Fianna Fáil 23% (-2)
Sinn Féin 14% (+1)
Independents 16% (+1)
SocDems 2% (-1)
Ind Alliance 2% (-1)
Sol-PBP 1 %(-1)
Aontú 1% (+1)
A good poll for Fine Gael who have a 10 point lead on Fianna Fail. Labour, the Green Party, SocDems and the smaller parties are failing to get into double digits, with only Sinn Fein and Independents making a challenge with 14% and 16% respectively.
Next we look at the European Parliament voting intentions.
Fine Gael 33%
Fianna Fáil 21%
Sinn Féin 16%
Ind Alliance 2%
Sol-PBP 1< %
This poll should see Fine Gael retain its four seats in the European Parliament, while Fianna Fail should see them win three seats (one in each constituency). Sinn Fein’s result should see them hold at least 2 out of their 3 seats, but with a good chance of returning all 3. The other seats will go to a mix of the smaller parties and independents. Of course this will all depend on whether we have 11 seats or 13 seats and what way the 20% undecided voters split between now and election day.
And finally the local elections
Fine Gael 27%
Fianna Fáil 20%
Sinn Féin 15%
Ind Alliance 4%
Sol-PBP <1 %
This poll would see Fine Gael increase its support by 3% on the 2014 Local Election which Fianna Fail would slip back by 5.5% on the 2014 results. But with a large number of voters undecided and the personal vote of a number high-profile of a number of local election candidate it is hard to predict the number of seats for each party.
Yesterday’s Sunday Business Post had a Red C poll on the treaty referendum and on party support, so it made for interesting reading on the way home from Dublin (hence why this post is late). On the treaty it has shown some slight movement and it is the same story with party support.
The headline figures on the treaty are:
Yes 47% (-2)
No 35% (+2)
Don’t Know 18% (nc)
When the Don’t Know’s are excluded the figures are:
Yes 58% (-2)
No 42% (+2)
With the changes all within the margin of error, it is still all to play for. And with the campaign getting officially underway today expect a lot more polls!
In terms of party support the figures are as follows:
Fine Gael 32% (-2)
Labour 14% (-1)
Fianna Fail 17% (+1)
Sinn Fein 19% (+1)
Others 18% (+1)
All the changes again are within the margin of error. So no major changes. Interesting to note that Government Parties support is down, while opposition is up. But with no major changes its hard to make any long term predictions on it.
The Sunday Business Post has two polls for us about the Irish Presidential Election. It has one poll with the 5 nominated candidates so far and one poll with the 7 candidates who will most likely be on the ballot on October 27th.
In the 5 Candidate poll the 1st preference vote would look as follows:
Higgins, Michael D (Lab) 27%
McGuinness, Martin (SF) 20%
Davis, Mary (Ind) 20%
Mitchell, Gay (FG) 15%
Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 15%
This poll is interesting as it has Davis level with McGuinness, but with Sinn Fein being transfer toxic, Davis could be the one to make it to the final count with Higgins.
In the 7 candidate the poll, the first preferences are as follows:
Norris, David (Ind) 21%
Higgins, Michael D (Ind) 18%
McGuinness, Martin (SF) 16%
Davis, Mary (Ind) 13%
Mitchell, Gay (FG) 13%
Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 11%
Scanlon, Dana Rosemary (Ind) 6%
When Senator Norris is added in to the poll he takes a margin of error lead over Higgins. Davis falls back to tie with Fine Gael’s Mitchell who does not seem to be making much of an impact in the campaign.
Of course with this many candidates in the race it will all come down to transfers. With this looking like the first Presidential Election to go further then two counts, where the transfers go will be what is important. RED C have polled this and the results are interesting.
Norris, David (Ind) 6%
Higgins, Michael D (Ind) 20%
McGuinness, Martin (SF) 8%
Davis, Mary (Ind) 16%
Mitchell, Gay (FG) 14%
Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 14%
Scanlon, Dana Rosemary (Ind) 7%
This is where the campaign for Norris falls down as he comes last in terms of 2nd preferences where he is beaten by McGuinness and Dana. This would spell disaster as both Higgins and Davis could easily gain enough transfers to leapfrog him and leave it as a two horse race. Unless Norris can get a larger lead, he may win the first count but ultimately lose the election. The beauty of the Irish Electoral System?