Ireland South: A look ahead

So a thread over on Machine Nation got me thinking ahead to next June’s European Elections. Some parties, including the Greens, Labour and Sinn Fein have selected their candidates. FF are a foregone conclusion with FG the only major party left to select. Of course Kathy Sinnott will run again. Libertas who say it is “substantially correct” that they have registered as a European Political Party.

So who is running (in no particular order):
Labour (Party of European Socialists) are running Senator Alan Kelly from Tipperary. He was elected on the Agricultural Panel to the Seanad.

Greens (European Greens–European Free Alliance) are running Dan Boyle their leader in Seanad Eireann and Chairman. He was appointed to the Seanad following the loss of his seat in Cork South Central in the 2007 General Election.

I assume Fianna Fail (Union for Europe of the Nations) are running Brian Crowley MEP who is the leader of the UEN in the European Parliament. Brian was first elected in 1994 and has held it since.

Sinn Fein (European United Left–Nordic Green Left) are running Cllr. Toireasa Ferris, former Cathaoirleach of Kerry County Council. Her father, Martin Ferris, is the Sinn Féin TD for Kerry North.

Fine Gael (European People’s Party-European Democrats) still have time to decide between Colm Burke, who was co-opted to replace Simon Coveney TD, and former GAA President Sean Kelly. Burke is a former Lord Mayor of Cork with a long history of serving the people of Cork. Kelly on the otherhand will be well known around teh constituency so that convention should be interesting.

Kathy Sinnott MEP (Independence/Democracy) is also expected to run again as she currently heads up the Ind/Dem group in the European Parliament. She ran in the General Election back in 2002 and narrowly lost out on a seat in Cork South Central. She was elected to the European Parliament in 2004.

Thats all the candidates I know of. Other candidates may be announced and I will endeavor to keep this list updated!

Interesting take on the yesterdays IMS poll

got this off a friend

I’m sure you’ve seen or heard about the IMS poll in the Tribune yesterday.

FF – 39
FG – 22
Lab – 12
PD – 5
Green – 5
SF – 7
Others – 10

IMS did similar polls during the 2002 general election, and their predictions were woeful. 2 days before the election they had a poll which had FF on 50% (they got 41% on the day) and had FG on 18% (we got 22.5%). This crazy margin of error seems to continue to this day and would explain why FF are so high and FG so low in IMS polls, compared to the MRBI and RedC ones.

So if you correct yesterdays poll in line with the margins of error IMS had in 2002, you get:

FF – 31%
FG – 26%
Lab – 11%
PD – 6%
SF – 8%
Green – 4%
Others – 13%

FF/PD – 37%
FG/Labour – 37%
FG/Labour/Greens – 41%

A crude way of looking at it perhaps, but it paints a very different picture – one that the Sunday Tribune dont seem to think is worth noting.

So if the Tribune, or anyone else, think that the election is over……….then they need their heads examined!

PS: If you meet any crowing FF members in the next few days- you might ask them what they think of the plunging FF support in Dublin – down from 44% to 31% in the space of 2 months. If you believe IMS, their support in Dublin is actually 4% LOWER now than it was before Ahern blubbed and sobbed about his money troubles.

Tribune poll good news for FG?

Got this from Irish Election (Yes i rob everything off them! :P)

Fianna Fail at 39% (-3) Fine Gael at 22% and Labour at 12% (+2 each). Progressive Democrats at 5% (+1), Green Party at 5% (-1) and Sinn Fein at 7% (-1)

So that gives a combined FG/Lab 34% of the vote and throw in the greens and we tie with FF who could have a choice between SF (7%) or the PD’s (5%).

Nice to see that FF and SF are down though! Things are looking good, lets hope its lats 😀

Morning Breifing, January 8th

An Nuacht ar an maidin seo

Well im never trusting RTÉ again. Thanks for everyone who commented, and yes its David Irvine, I was very tired last night!

FG launch into FF over saying they will go into power with Sinn Fein (Breakingnews.ie) Maybe one of my predictions for the Government may come true.

NASA killed life on Mars (CNN). Wow thats a strange one. Didnt see that coming.

Sky News have launched a Green Britain yoke thats showing all week. one of this links is for a game from the Science Museum

Israel is reportedly ready to attack Iran, now theres a warn for them (France 24)

Equality maintained in the North!

Via BreakingNews.ie

The motion was on the Equality Act (Sexual Orientation) Regulations

During the debate, the DUP and Ulster Unionist Party criticised the British government for implementing the Equality Act (Sexual Orientation) Regulations in the North on January 1 ahead of the rest of the UK and for holding only a two-month consultation in the North.

For a change im glad that Sinn Fein are on this side of Equality

After a tense two-hour debate at Stormont, 39 Assembly members voted in favour of the DUP motion and 39 against.

The dead heat meant that the motion was not carried.

SF, accussed the DUP of Homophobia

Sinn Féin equality spokeswoman Caitriona Ruane accused the DUP of whipping up homophobic sentiment with the motion.

“This motion is part of yesterday’s agenda, part of the bad old days of the past,” the South Down MLA argued.

“Move on – show leadership. Days of second-class citizenship and hiding our identities are gone.”

The SDLP aslo opposed the motion

SDLP equality spokeswoman Patricia Lewsley, whose party`s youth wing staged a protest against the motion outside Parliament Buildings, accused the DUP of scaremongering and said it was untrue to claim that the regulations would punish faith-run schools.

All they will prevent is discrimination and harassment – not the teaching of religious doctrine,” the Lagan Valley MLA countered.

“Harassment only occurs if there is unwanted conduct which has purpose or intent of violating dignity or creating an intimidating, degrading or offensive environment

The Alliance Party pointed out that ‘673 responses which covered all the main religious groupings in the North and all the key organisations with an interest.’ and also David Ford, Alliance Party leader and South Antrim MLA, pointed out

“I am not sure that there would have been any different response had there been another four weeks or another 14 weeks,” he said.

The Progressive Unionist also opposed the DUP motion, David Irvine

“Equality is equality is equality,” the East Belfast MLA declared.

“If any human being is left out of the entitlement for equality, then we deny ourselves proper equality. It is either for everyone or it is for no one.”

I thought I’d never be parising SF, the SDLP and the Progressive Unionist in the same post!