Yesterday’s Sunday Business Post had a poll on Party Support and the upcoming treaty referendum. For the referendum the Yes side has much to be comforted by. The results are:
Yes: 53% (+6)
No: 31% (-4)
Don’t Know: 16% (-2)
When you exclude the Don’t Know yes side lead 63% to 37%. This shows the strength of the Yes side before the entry of Declan Ganley to the debate so it will be interesting to see if his contribution makes any difference.
In terms of party support the only major statistical movement is drop below 30%. The party support is as follows:
Fine Gael 29% (-3)
Labour 13% (-1)
Sinn Fein 21% (+1)
Fianna Fail 19% (+2)
Others 18% (nc)
Fianna Fail, who have been in the news a lot lately thanks to Eamonn O Cuiv, seems to have gotten a bit of a bounce from that. Sinn Fein remains the second most popular party in Ireland, but I still believe transfers will still be hard to come by for them.
The Government Parties have seen a drop in support which is probably due to the treaty campaign as much criticism has been laid at how the country is being run.
But over all, the movement is all within the margin of error, but trends are starting to set in.
Yesterday’s Sunday Business Post had a Red C poll on the treaty referendum and on party support, so it made for interesting reading on the way home from Dublin (hence why this post is late). On the treaty it has shown some slight movement and it is the same story with party support.
The headline figures on the treaty are:
Yes 47% (-2)
No 35% (+2)
Don’t Know 18% (nc)
When the Don’t Know’s are excluded the figures are:
Yes 58% (-2)
No 42% (+2)
With the changes all within the margin of error, it is still all to play for. And with the campaign getting officially underway today expect a lot more polls!
In terms of party support the figures are as follows:
Fine Gael 32% (-2)
Labour 14% (-1)
Fianna Fail 17% (+1)
Sinn Fein 19% (+1)
Others 18% (+1)
All the changes again are within the margin of error. So no major changes. Interesting to note that Government Parties support is down, while opposition is up. But with no major changes its hard to make any long term predictions on it.
There is an interesting poll in tomorrows Sunday Business Post by Red C on both Party support and the fiscal treaty referendum. It is worth nothing that the poll was taken before the announcement on a deal on the Promissory Note and the Mahon Tribunal Report .
The top-line figures for party support are as follows:
Fine Gael 34% (+4)
Labour 15% (-1)
Fianna Fail 16% (-1)
Sinn Fein 18% (nc)
Ind/others 17% (-2)
Fine Gael manage get to get a four point bump in the poll this month. I am not sure exactly why considering all the major developments happened after the respondents were polled! Of course with the Ard Fheis next weekend there has been some mention of that. Labour and Fianna Fail both continue their slow slide, but of course the next poll will the most important one for Fianna Fail. If their move to kick Bertie Ahern and others mentioned in the Mahon Report are the right moves to keep support from the voters. Also it shows the Fianna Fail Ard Fheis and the apology has not helped with the polls.
Labours as the junior coalition party seem to be the ones suffering from policies implemented as there voters do not seem to agree. Of course with their National Conference coming up they could manage to stake out their own course after that.
On the treaty referendum the poll found the following:
Yes 49% (+5)
Undecided 18% (-9)
When the undecided’s are excluded it is
Which is no change from the polls earlier this month. The campaigns have yet to get under way, but with the undecided’s splitting evenly at the moment it might not be tight, but lets not get complacent!
In an article in the Sunday Business Post (€) Europe Minister Lucinda Creighton has warned the Yes side on being complacent about a “Yes” vote in the upcoming referendum. In the opinion article Minister Creighton draws a parallel between recent polls showing 60% in favour of the Treaty now and those which showed a larger majority in favour of the first Lisbon Treaty referendum.
Minister Creighton has committed the Government to playing an active role in the referendum campaign and she does not want to see a repeat of past mistakes in campaigns.
She also calls on”All citizens who have a stake in Ireland’s economic recovery must campaign for a Yes vote. ” She acknowledges that while referendum campaigns are “off-putting for ‘normal’ people (ie non-politicians!)” she points out that “the very point of a referendum is that it is about mobilising and engaging every single citizen on the extremely important question of amending our Constitution”.
Minister Creighton also calls on the Government to go further in facilitating people to vote in this referendum, calling for it to be held on a weekend and over two days which is the norm in continental Europe.
How much of this will happen is anyone’s guess. But her comments are right and should be heeded by the Government and those hoping for a Yes vote. Responsibility for the hoped response rest with both equally. The Government must ensure that those who want to vote are able to and are well informed. And those who want a Yes vote must ensure that they inform others of why a yes vote is important, why Ireland should sign up to this treaty.
The Sunday Business Post and the Sunday Independent carry some good news for those hoping that the referendum on the Fiscal Compact will be passed in Ireland.
According to the Red C Poll in the Sunday Business Post 44% of voters say they will vote “yes”, with 29% committed to a “no” vote. 26% do not know. This is going to be where the focus will be on the way the “do not knows” split closer to the election, but excluding the “Do not knows” he yes side have 60% to 40% for the no.
In the Millward Brown Lansdowne Poll in the Sunday Independent the response was 37% “Yes” to 26% “No”. That left 15% in the “Do no know” column and 21% in the “It depends” column. The “it depends” column is interesting and I hope the poll did ask further questions on it so more on that tomorrow.
When you exclude the “Do not knows” and the “it depends” you get a similar 59% Yes and 41% no.
So while the Yes camp is certainly the larger camp, any yes campaign should be wary of any complacency and of course should learn the lessons of Nice 1 and Lisbon 1 referenda.
Michael Martin also last night firmly committed Fianna Fail to supporting the Yes campaign in his Ard Fheis speech and got a round of applause showing that there does not seem to be a split in Fianna Fail on Europe.
The Sunday Business Post/Red C poll also asked about party support and got the following results:
Fine Gael 30% (NC)
Labour 16% (+2)
Fianna Fail 17% (-1)
Sinn Fein 18% (+1)
Others 19% (-2)
Sinn Fein now are the 2nd most popular party in the state in two successive polls, the first being the Behaviours and Attitudes poll in last weeks Sunday Times. It will be interesting if this weekends Fianna Fail Ard Fheis will change that.
This will be one of three referenda held in Ireland this year. The other two will be on the long awaited Children’s Rights Referendum and on abolishing the Seanad.
The decision to hold a referendum has been welcomed across the political spectrum, though also drawing battle lines with Fine Gael, Labour and Fianna Fail in favour of ratification and Sinn Fein, the ULA and some of the independents.
Tomorrow the Sunday Business Post have a Red C poll for the Presidential Election. The comparison is with the Red C poll for Paddy Power on October 6th. The field work for this poll was done between Monday and Wednesday so does not include any changes, if any, after the Prime Time debate.
Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 39% (+18)
Higgins, Michael D (Lab) 27% (+2)
McGuinness, Martin (SF) 13% (-3)
Mitchell, Gay (FG) 8% (-2)
Norris, David (Ind) 7% (-7)
Davis, Mary (Ind) 4% (-5)
Scallon, Dana Rosemary 2% (-3)
The major change in this poll is the massive 18% leap in support for Sean Gallagher. It is becoming a two horse race between Gallagher and Michael D Higgins of Labour as they are the only candidates to see a rise in support.
All the other candidates have seen a drop in support, and independent Senator David Norris who has seen his support halved from 14% t0 7%. The other candidates have all seen their support drop between 2-5%.
The rise the Fine Gael were hoping to see for Gay Mitchell does not seem to have materialised as he drops 2%. But have the attacks on Martin McGuinness had some effect as he has dropped 3% in the poll?
Of course, no polls seem to be agreeing over a week so it will be interesting if next week the polls will change as the debate and revelations from Dana have any effect in the next set of polls, and of course will the media turn their attention on the leading candidates and change it all again?
The Sunday Business Post has two polls for us about the Irish Presidential Election. It has one poll with the 5 nominated candidates so far and one poll with the 7 candidates who will most likely be on the ballot on October 27th.
In the 5 Candidate poll the 1st preference vote would look as follows:
Higgins, Michael D (Lab) 27%
McGuinness, Martin (SF) 20%
Davis, Mary (Ind) 20%
Mitchell, Gay (FG) 15%
Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 15%
This poll is interesting as it has Davis level with McGuinness, but with Sinn Fein being transfer toxic, Davis could be the one to make it to the final count with Higgins.
In the 7 candidate the poll, the first preferences are as follows:
Norris, David (Ind) 21%
Higgins, Michael D (Ind) 18%
McGuinness, Martin (SF) 16%
Davis, Mary (Ind) 13%
Mitchell, Gay (FG) 13%
Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 11%
Scanlon, Dana Rosemary (Ind) 6%
When Senator Norris is added in to the poll he takes a margin of error lead over Higgins. Davis falls back to tie with Fine Gael’s Mitchell who does not seem to be making much of an impact in the campaign.
Of course with this many candidates in the race it will all come down to transfers. With this looking like the first Presidential Election to go further then two counts, where the transfers go will be what is important. RED C have polled this and the results are interesting.
Norris, David (Ind) 6%
Higgins, Michael D (Ind) 20%
McGuinness, Martin (SF) 8%
Davis, Mary (Ind) 16%
Mitchell, Gay (FG) 14%
Gallagher, Sean (Ind) 14%
Scanlon, Dana Rosemary (Ind) 7%
This is where the campaign for Norris falls down as he comes last in terms of 2nd preferences where he is beaten by McGuinness and Dana. This would spell disaster as both Higgins and Davis could easily gain enough transfers to leapfrog him and leave it as a two horse race. Unless Norris can get a larger lead, he may win the first count but ultimately lose the election. The beauty of the Irish Electoral System?
So today we saw the first poll since the general election published in the Sunday Business Post. It was conducted by Red C. All figures are on difference since the election. The topline figures are:
Fine Gael 39% (+3)
Labour 18% (-1)
Fianna Fail 16% (-1)
Sinn Fein 11% (+1)
An interesting poll. Maybe people are regretting not voting for a majority Fine Gael government? That or is the sign that Red C over estimate Fine Gael support by about 3%. Pity we won’t know until the local and european elections in 2014. Unless something dramatic happens. I am not surprised at this poll. The government is still in a honeymoon period with the voters, unlike in the media. All the bad news can still be associated with the previous Fianna Fail Government, but this wont last long.
It must be said the Fine Gael ministers have been playing a blinder and are not getting as hit hard by the media or the voters as Labour Ministers. It will be interesting if this trend continues.
It is interesting to note that the Green Party has been lumped into the “others” category. It will be strange not seeing them in polls.
Its five days to polling day and the Sunday Business Post have their last opinion poll of the campaign. The headline figures are as follows:
Fianna Fail 16% (+1)
Fine Gael 39% (+1)
Labour 17% (-3)
Greens 2% (-1)
Sinn Fein 12% (+2)
Independents 14% (NC)
This poll shows some recovery for Fianna Fail and another advance for Fine Gael who are really approaching 40% and possible overall majority. This poll really shows that Labour are floundering. They haven’t hit home with their attacks and are driving people away.
The second poll in the Sunday Independent has topline figures as follows:
Fianna Fail 16% (+4)
Fine Gael 37% (-1)
Labour 20% (+3)
Greens 1% (nc)
Sinn Fein 12% (+2)
Independents 14 (+2)
There is a surprising amount of similarities between the polls. Granted the Sindo do show Fine Gael down, its only by 1%. But the Sindo also show that Labour is in trouble. I have a feeling there will be a lot of soul searching in Labour HQ today and tomorrow. Fianna Fail look set to stay at 16% and I would be surprised if that changed much in the next 5 days.
The seat predictions are as follows:
Fianna Fail 23
Fine Gael 75
Sinn Fein 13
Poll of Polls
With the addition of these two polls, the rough poll of polls stands as follows: