Pollwatch: Sunday Times/Behaviour and Attitudes April 22nd

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM - MAY 05:  A polling st...

Yet another poll! Thats the way I’m feeling at this point anyway, but back to this poll which does have some interesting details on the Referendum. The poll by Behaviour and Attitudes survey of 946 over seven days ending on Tuesday.

The topline figures on the Treaty Referendum are as follows:

  • Yes: 42%
  • No: 27%
  • Undecided: 31%

When undecideds are excluded the the figures look more familiar:

  • Yes: 61%
  • No: 39%

So no major news there. The interest is when people were asked to they understand the treaty, the responses were as follows:

  • Understood Very Well: 6%
  • Understand Quite Well: 12%
  • Understand to some extent: 27%
  • Do not understand it particularly well: 23%
  • Do not understand it all: 32%

The big task on the Yes sides now will be to get the 55% of people who don’t understand to understand! If the Yes manages that will win the referendum on May 31st!

UK: Will there be a BNP breakthrough?

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

There is a lot of talk in the UK at the moment of the possibility of a BNP breakthrough at the European Elections like UKIP last time out. Two recent surveys don’t point that way.

Two surveys have the BNP polling at about the 4% mark. According to the YouGov poll in the Sunday Times the BNP are polling at 4% (nc) and according to Predict 09 it is polling at 4.4% (-0.5% on 2004). According to these polls the BNP will not pick up any seats in the European Election. In fac both polls show that UKIP are down on their 2004 result of 16.1%. YouGov have them on 7% and Predict 09 have them on 7% also. Meaning that UKIP could loose 8 seats.

Whether of not that will happen is hard to tell as it hard to judge support for smaller parties in the UK. Also the electoral system is different for the European Elections in the UK (outside of Northern Ireland which uses STV). They use a List PR system using the D’Hondt method. Im not sure if there will be a large swing to the BNP, but then again the campaign has only truely begun now!

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