Republican Nomination Race – February will be boring?

SARASOTA, FL - JANUARY 24: Lynn Coffin holds b...
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After the exciting initial contests in Iowa (Santorum), New Hampshire (Romney), South Carolina (Gingrich) and Florida (Romeny) which were at first wide open contests, February Republican Primarys will not be as exciting and the winner is nearly known before hand. While this may lead to some upsets, it is doubtful that any will occur.

Today’s Nevada Caucus is a perfect example. With results due from about 1am Irish time. Mitt Romney is expected to win by a 20 point margin, the only interesting thing will be what proportion of Nevada’s 28 delegates he will get and who will be runner up. A second place finish for Ron Paul could be a lift for his campaign.

The rest of the states voting this month also favour Romney as he carried them in his attempt at the Republican nomination in 2008.  Romney is could win a narrow victory in Maine’s week long caucus which began on Friday ends on February 11th. 24 delegates are up for grabs in the Pine Tree State.

On Tuesday, Colorado and Minnesota have their caucuses. In Colorado things are a bit tighter for Romney who is under pressure from Newt Gingrich here. Romney won this state in 2008 but in the polls before Christmas he was trailing behind Gingrich, but fortunes may have changed since them and the majority of Centennial State’s 36 delegates could go to Romney.

Meanwhile in Minnesota where in 2008 Romney won, he is under pressure from Gingrich majorly. In a poll last month for PPP Ginrich has an 18 point lead, but can he maintain it?  40 delegates are at stake in the North Star State.

On the 28th it gets a bit more interesting with Primaries in Arizona and Michigan. Romney only carried Michigan in 2008 as Arizona went for its own John McCain. He has a 10 point lead according  to an average of polls on RealClearPolitics in Michigan and has a good shot at a good portion of its 30 delegates.

Meanwhile in Arizona the last Rasmussen Report poll had Romeny with a 24 point lead over Gingrich. Arizona is a winner takes all primary with 29 delegates up for grabs and will be an important state for momentum as it takes place 7 days before Super Tuesday.

So with Mitt Romney ahead in most of the states voting this month it could be a tad boring unless there is a major upset, but it does give us plenty of time to look forward to Super Tuesday on March 6th when Georgia (76 Delegates), Ohio (66 Delegates), Virginia (49 delegates), Oklahoma (43 Delegates), Massachusetts (41 Delegates) and Vermont (17 delegates) all going to the polls. Lets see what happens

Super Tuesday: New Mexico still a tie….

Well its coming down to a wisker in New Mexico. At the moment tallies from the reporting precincts have Clinton on 49% of the vote and Obama and 48%. Its been neck and neck there since yesterday and neither candidate can pull ahead. New Mexico has 26 delegates for convention and think it will play out like this across the US. Clinton and Obama will trade wins and states whos delegates dont cont cause they broke party rules (Michigan and Florida) might come into play to break the deadlock who knows!

Over all Obama has won the following states: Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Conn., Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minneasota, Missouiri, North Dakota and Utah.

Clinton on the other hand won in the following states, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Mass., New Jersey and New York. I think Mike Gavel will drop out of the Democratic race soon enough (bet ye for got he was running!)

Though Obama won in Alabama, Clinton will have more delegates from Alabama then Obama as she won more precincts. Delegate estimates (emphasis on estimates!) have Clinton on 823 and Obama on 741. It is estimated that 2,025 delegates are needed to win.

For the Republicans, McCain i think has it. It has swept up California, New York and Illinois all delegate rich states. Huckabee was the surprise of the day winning in five states and Romney won 7 states. I think Romney really need to go away and think if he should continue.

McCain won in the states of Ariyzona, California, Conn., Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New York, New Jersey and Oklahoma. Romeny won in Alaska, Colorado, Mass., Minneasota, Montana, North Dakota and Utah. Huackabee won in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and West Virgina.

The Republican Delegate estimates look like this, bear in mind most republican states have a winner takes all situation for delegates unlike the proportional system used by the democrats. McCain has 680, Romney has 270, Huckabee has 176 and Ron Paul has 16. It is estimated that you need the support of 1,191 delegates to win the nomination.

Thats it for now. Hopeful will blog about Lisbon and Germany tonight. Unless something unexpected happens in New Mexico!

Super Tuesday: More full results 6pm CET

A big gap between the last post and this one and only 2 extra states have 100% of precints reporting. I reliase that Eastern Time US is six hours behind me!

Here we go

Connecticut
Dems: Obama wins here with 51% of the vote giving him 26 delegates. Clinton gains 22delegetes on 47% of the vote.

Reps: McCain easily wins this primary on 52% of the vote. Romney is in second on 33% while Huckabee is a distant third with 7% of the vote.

Massachusetts´
Dems: Both sitting Senators (Sens. Kennedy and Kerry) in Massachusetts have endorsed Obama, and gues who won? Clinton! Clinton gained 56% of the vote complared to Obamas 41%. This gives Clinton 54 delegates and Obama 37.

Reps: This is the state that Romney used to be Govener of. He won here by a margin of 10% over McCain. Romney got 51% of the vote.

So of the states fully declared for the Democrats Obama has won: Delaware, Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota and Connecticut. Clinton has won: Massachusetts, Oklahoma and Tennessee. With 13 states still not 100% reporting, including delegate rich states like California and New York, delegate numbers wont be known till tomorrow Id say.

For the republicans, its all about McCain. He is definatley the front runner in this fight. He won Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma and Connecticut. he is also the projected winner in California and New York. Romney has to go away and think about things. He won in Montana, North Dakota and Massachusetts. Huckabee in the big surprise of the night has won in two states that are 100% reporting including Tennessee and West Virgina. I think the GOP ticket is farily certain now. Im predicting a McCain/Huckabee ticket for the Republican Party Nomination. I am notourisly bad at predictions especially Eurovision, but as my last prediction was Guiliani (who since dropped out) I have had to change!

Super Tuesday: States with final Results 10am CET

Heres a rundown of full results as at 10am CET

Deleware
Dems: Obama wins here with 53% of the vote leaving Clinton behind on 43%. In the important delegate race, Obama gets 9 to Clintons

Reps: McCain wins here with 45% of the vote giving him 18 delegates. Romney comes second with a 33% of the vote and Huckabee comes third with 15%. The important threshold for delegates in 15%.

Idaho
Dems: Obama streaks ahead here and wins with 79% of the caucus goers supporting him. Thet gives him 15 delegates to Cintons 3 (And 17% of the vote!)

Kansas
Dmes: Another cuacus victory for Obama this time giving him 74% of the vote and 23 delegates. Clinton has 26% of the vote and 9 delegates.

Missouri
Dems: the smallest of margins sperates the democratic contenders in this state. Obama and Clinton have evenly split the delegates between. In the actual vote Obama won by 1% leading Clinton 49% to 48%.

Reps: McCain did a similar feat here. He beat Huckabee by 1% and Romney by 4%! The results were McCain 33%, Huckabee 32%, Romney, 29%. Is Huckabee making himself the prosective VP candidate?

Monatana
Reps: Caucus goers here preffered Romney with 38% supporting him. McCain (22%) and Huckabee (15%) were pushed to third and fourth respectively as Ron Paul came second with 25% of the support.

North Dakota
Dems: Again caucus goers supported Obama giving him 61% of the vote and 8 delegates. Meanwhile Clinton got 31% and 5 delegates.

Reps: Here caucus goers again supported Romney giving him 36% of the vote. McCain came second with 23%, Ron Paul third with 21% just pushing Huckabee into fourth on 20%.

Oklahoma
Dems: Here Clinton wins by a margin of 14%! She gets 55% of the vote getting 24 of all those important delegates. Obama gets 31% and gets 14 delegates.

Reps: McCain beats Huckabee to win this state with 17% of the vote to Huckabees 33%. Romeny comes third with 25% of the vote. McCain gets 32 delegates to Huckabess 6.

Tennessee
Dems: Clinton wins here on 54% of the vote compared with Obama’s 41%. This leaves her with 34 delegates and Obama with 21.

Reps: Huckabee here beats McCain to win 34% of the vote and 12 Delegates. McCain gets 32% and 7 delegates. Romney comes third with 24% and 3 delegates.

West Virginia
Reps: One of the tighest caucus results I’ve seen. Huckabee edges out Romney by 5%. He has the support of 52% of state delegates compared to Romney’s 47%. McCain got 1% of the vote!

Will put up further results when I get them.

Super Tuesday: Results so far. 9am CET

These are the results I have at hand from CNN at 9am CET. With 24 states holding contests its a biggie. Especially with delegate rich states as California and New York being the big ones. All percentage figures are of Precints Reporting results unless otherwise stated.

Alabama
Dem Primary: Obama (99% precincts reporting)
Rep Primary: Huckabee (99% precincts reporting)

Alaska
Dem Caucus: Obama (98%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (90%)

Arizona
Dem Primary: Clinton (82%)
Rep Primary: McCain (81%)

Arkansas
Dem Primary: Clinton (87%)
Rep Primary: McCain (87%)

California
Dem Primary: Clinton (48%)
Rep Primary: McCain (47%)

Colorado
Dem Caucus: Obama (99%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (95%)

Connecticut
Dem Primary: Obama (99%)
Rep Primary: McCain (99%)

Delaware
Dem Primary: Obama (100%)
Rep Primary: McCain (100%)

Georgia
Dem Primary: Obama (99%)
Rep Primary: Huckabee (98%)

Idaho
Dem Caucus: Obama (97%)
Rep Rimary on May 27th

Illinois
Dem Primary: Obama (97%)
Rep Primary: McCain (97%)

Kansas
Dem Caucus: Obama (100%)
Rep Caucus on February 9th

Massachusetts
Dem Primary: Clinton (97%)
Rep Primary: Romney (96%)

Minneasota
Dem Caucus: Obama (81%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (82%)

Missouri
Dem Primary: Obama (100%)
Rep Primary: McCain (100%)

Montana
Rep Caucus: Romney (100%)
Dem Primary on June 3rd

New Jersey
Dem Primary: Clinton (99%)
Rep Primary: McCain (99%)

New Mexico
Dem Primary: With 54% of precints reporting Clinton is 2% ahead of Obama. Its far from over here. Its too close to call
Rep Primary on June 3rd

New York
Dem Primary: Clinton (99%)
Rep Primary: McCain (99%)

North Dakota
Dem Caucus: Obama (100%)
Rep Caucus: Romney (100%)

Oklahoma
Dem Primary: Clinton (100%)
Rep Primary: McCain (100%)

Tennessee
Dem Primary: Clinton (100%)
Rep Primary: Huckabee (100%)

Utah
Dem Primary: Obama (99%)
Rep Primary: Romney (99%)

West Virginia
Rep Caucus: Huckabee (100%)
Dem Primary on May 13th

McCain is now definatley the frontrunner for the GOP nomination and Clinton and Obama are still neck and neck. Its still all to play for.

Up Next Feb 9th
Kansas caucuses (Rep Only)
Louisiana primaries
Nebraska caucuses (Dem Only)
Washington caucuses