Refresh for updates, thanks to @AudreyEWalsh for some of the quotes
Hello and welcome to my live blog of the UCC Economics Society Economic Conference. There is a great line up of speakers organised and I will be updating this post as the day goes on. Feel free to ask questions in the comments on Twitter (@spiller2 or @corkeconomics) or on Facebook. Todays Timetable:
11:30 – 11:35 Welcome by Stephen Barry, Auditor of UCC Economics Society
11:35 – 11:50 Opening Address by Robbie Butler, UCC Department of Economics
11:50 – 12:50 Panel Discussion 1: Is politics the greatest stumbling block to economic stability? Ciaran Lynch TD, Sinead Ryan and Declan Jordan, Peter Mathews TD and John Considine (Chair)
12:50 – 13:20 Q&A
13:20 – 14:20 Lunch
14:20 – 14:40 “Gaming It: Incentives, Cheating and the Grey Area in Sports” – Declan Jordan
14:40 – 15:40 Panel Discussion 2: The Eurozone – wobbling on a tightrope between growth and debt? Megan Greene, Seamus Coffey, Brendan Keenan, Lorcan Roche-Kelly and Tim Harford (Chair)
15:40 – 16.10 Q&A
16:10 – 16:20 Coffee Break
16.20 – Keynote Speech by Tim Harford
We can go from Primary to University without studying Economics.
We don’t teach basic Economics, how to save, how to spend, how not to spend more then you earn
Interest in Economics has declined since the recession.
Need to capture imagination of young people. Less than 10% leave formal education with education in economics
Panel 1: Is politics the greatest stumbling block to economic stability?
Politics isnt the greatest stumbling block to economic stability
Do Governments hinder or help the Economy
13 Countries with good growth had committed, credible and capable Government
Bad decisions and Bad Governments can damage Economies
Electorate needs to incentives “good politicians” with “Good policies”
we tend to see politics as a problem, we get the government we deserve, we elected them
we elected the same government 3 times who had short term views, but we contributed to it
Peter Matthews TD
We’ve had a volatile economic situation here, as opposed to stagnation (Japan) or depressed (Soviet Union)
Unregulated markets has wrecked the real economy.
Read the “Price of Inequality” – Joseph Stiglitz
Also read “Thinking Fast & Slow” by Daniel Kahneman
This country is overburdened by debt which is unsustainable! A debt right down for Ireland would be the right thing to do!
The 11 MEPs need to agree on working together to reduce the €53bn debt
1st lesson of economics is of scarcity, 1st lesson of politics is to ignore the 1st lesson of economics.
Where there is conflict between Economist and Politicians, the tax payer ends up the loser.
Examples are Irish Water, HSE, Bank Crisis and unprofitable routes on public transport
No politician wants to be called brave
Ciaran Lynch TD
If Government is a stumbling block for economic stability if bad policies are followed, its not if good policies are followed.
Everyone now has opinion about economics just as in politics
The financial crisis has both internal and external causes!
Economics does not come with an ideology, just like Politics
Coming out of the current crisis/bailout is an example of how politics can work
Life cycle carbon taxes – there is not enough materials in the world to meet future supply.
Politics does not cause instability but pursuing economic dogma does
Q&A:Question: How do we get the Politician’s we deserve
Economist should provide Electorate with information
Economist should fact check on political policies
“ECB Monetary Policy” – Lorcan Roche Kelly
German Economy is the most important tool to the the ECB
To get where the ECB wants to be, the must do something new. They can’t cut interest rates. Money supply must be managed better!
The crisis that Europe is facing, is not a debt crisis…. it is a growth crisis!
The best thing that happened to the ECB was Trichet leaving the bank and Draghi coming in
The Euro suffers from a publicity problem
“Gaming It: Incentives, Cheating and the Grey Area in Sports” – Declan Jordan
Lots of cheating in sport, Luis Suraz, World Cup 1982, Theire Henry, A-Rod, Lance Armstrong, Maradonna.
Cheating is not new, its easier, they do work hard
Is bending the rules allowed?
Cheating needs a new definition
Should be defined as Breaking the rules for Advantage
Panel 2: The Eurozone – wobbling on a tightrope between growth and debt?
Eurozone is still a collection of National Economies, cant be compared to USA. Huge disparities between Governments
The eurozone crisis could easily erupt again!
Ireland facing more contraction until 2016, Public spending can grow beyond that if we reach that if international recovery
Is Ireland political willing to continue walking the tightrope? It will still be tough
A Tightrope… doesn’t matter which side you fall off! You fall off! A second bailout would lead to unknown territory.
Adding an item to the agenda, INFLATION…… it should be growth, solvency and inflation.
It is important to look at 2 different solvency levels: 1) Public Solvency levels 2) External Solvency levels
2014 will be a chronic year for the Eurozone, however next year things should get get better!
Germany has some room to provide some stimulus, but unlikely as its facing a rapid ageing population
German’s population is ageing and while their fiscal policy is good, their future generations will be paying the price.
Banking Union will not be about burden sharing, which was the point
Debt conference in Europe with all the weaker countries (and perhaps France), to restructure debt, is necessary.
The most political likely deal is debt restructuring. It will be politically tough. But rescheduling at least is nessecary
If deflation appears in prices, it might not be too bad. However, if it appears in wages, it would not good!
Deflation also affects Government income, VAT and Duty.
Those most hurt by deflation are those in debt. Most in debt? Governments- where anti deflation comments come
We still havent solved the Banking Crisis
EU needs to become more federal, whether in policy or fiscally, for social project of 1950s to avoid getting stuck
The Burden of the Debt has to go Somewhere
Lorcan Roche Kelly
Eurozone is almost a Co-Op
The Eurozone is a good tempate for a Federalised Europe
We need a really bad crisis for politicians to hand over fiscal power. Seeds are there for that crisis. Sovereign Debt
The answer is more Europe
Integration or Disintegration
We are half way across canyon, if we turn around we will fall off.
Keynote Speech: Tim Harford
Focusing on the story of Alban William Phillips (Also known as Bill Phillips)
He is the Indiana Jones of Economics
Invented the Moniac the first computer model of an economy
Developed the Philips Curve, the correlation between inflation and unemployment
The 1970’s Oil Crisis discredited the Philips Curve
When he developed the curve he never believed in it.
This Saturday, the UCC Economics Society will be holding their Economic Conference. There is a number of excellent speakers lined up (see below) which should be interesting to a lot of people. The reason I am posting this is that I shall be there and covering it on Twitter, Facebook and the blog.
Multi-million selling author and BBC Radio presenter Tim Harford will be the keynote speaker at the UCC Economics Society inaugural conference on Saturday the 1st of February in the Aula Maxima, UCC from 11am to 5pm. Other speakers include economists, broadcasters, politicians and journalists.
Harford spent some time lecturing in UCC in the nineties. Since then he become well known through his writing. He contributes to the Financial Times where he writes the world’s only economic ‘agony aunt’ column. His most recent publication ‘The Undercover Economist Strikes Back: How to run or ruin an economy’ takes a step into macroeconomics, while his online TED talk has over 150,000 views (link http://www.ted.com/talks/tim_harford.html )
The conference features a number of other high-profile panellists who will debate European and political related economicaffairs. Megan Greene, Chief Economist with Maverick Intelligence, based in London, will speak about the current European situation. Other speaks include Brendan Keenan, former Economics Editor for Independent Newspapers, Sinead Ryan, consumer and personal finance journalist with The Herald, and Ciarán Lynch TD, Chairman of the Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform. UCC economists will also contribute, including Robbie Butler, Seamus Coffey and Declan Jordan.
The conference comes as part of a string of economics events running from Monday 27th January – Monday 3 February.Economist and author David McWilliams will officially launch ‘Economics Week’ on Monday 27th January in Boole Lecture Theatre 1 at 6:30pm. The week will be concluded by John Fitzgerald, Research Professor at the Economics and Social Research Institute, on Monday 3rd February at 7pm in Kane Science Building G02. A full timetable is available here: http://www.ucceconomicsconference.com/
Speaking ahead of the event, conference convener Jamie Cullinan said, “This conference is intended to unite leading academics and practitioners in the field to discuss economic problems with a view towards finding a pathway into the future. Applying the discussion to matters of politics and policy will focus the conference on the most current topics in a continually challenging economic environment.”
“Thanks to our hard-working team, we are very happy to have such a fantastic line up from international and national commentators and economists. Many people have read Tim Harford and he has enthralled us with his writing, while we’ve seen the likes of Megan Greene and Sinead Ryan speaking at Kilkenomics where they proved very insightful commentators. Now more than ever economics is to the forefront of society. Economists have dug into real-world matters and tried to understand human behaviour.
“Importantly this discussion will take place in a college setting and will have the power to influence economic thinking into the future through the attending students, who will also be given an opportunity to question the prevailing economic thought and policy issues on the day.”
A conference is taking place in Spain on the EU Constitution (BBC). Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain are sending ministers and Germany, Ireland and Portugal are sending observers. Im not sure what outcome it will have as only 17 member states are attending.
The UN will announce its plan for Kosovo today (BBC). Hopefully it will safe gaurd
In a historic step the Prime Minister of Vietnam has met with the Pope (CNN)
Kofi Annan has returned home to Ghana (CNN) after his ten year stint as head of the United Nations. He is thinking of entering agriculture
No more .um sites (CNN)awww, but there are talks of getting rid of .su sites also.
The US has unveiled an non-lethal ray gun!(CNN) i thinks its a cool idea. It makes u think ur going to catch fire, wo wont run from that!
And finally in UCC RAG week is over and nominations for the Student Union Elections open next wednesday. I am intending to seek a nomination to run for Welfare officer in the SU. check out my website its still under construction so check back. But i do have a Bebo, MySpace and Facebook profiles
The Tánaiste and Minister for Justice, Equality and Law Reform, Mr Michael McDowell, T.D., today announced the membership of the Pre-nuptial Study Group he has established to study the operation of the law with respect to Pre-nuptial Agreements. The Group will be chaired by Ms Inge Clissmann. Ms Clissman is an expert in family law and has represented clients in some of the leading cases in this field. Her particular specialist areas include matrimonial litigation, child advocacy, and related private international law issues. The group will report in March 2007. The other members of the Group are:
·Ross Aylward, LL.B ·Marie Baker, Senior Counsel ·Margaret Bannon, Advisory Counsel, Office of the Attorney General ·Stephanie Coggans, Managing Solicitor, Law Centre, Legal Aid Board, Monaghan ·Louise Crowley, Solicitor and Lecturer, Faculty of Law, UCC ·John Kenny, Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform
The terms of reference of the Study Group are – “to study and report on the operation of the law since the introduction of divorce in 1996 with respect to pre-nuptial agreements taking into account constitutional requirements.”
The Tánaiste has asked the Group to report to him, and to make recommendations for change in the law as it considers necessary, by 31 March 2007. It is the Tánaiste’s intention to publish the report and any recommendations made.
Making the announcement the Tánaiste said, “The issue of pre-nuptial agreements, as so circumscribed by the Constitution, is not straightforward and will require close examination by the Group. I look forward to having the Group’s Report which I expect will help to fully inform the public and the Government on what action can and should be taken”.
Well i dont know much about the members of the group bar ‘Louise Crowley, Solicitor and Lecturer, Faculty of Law, UCC’. She lectured me in Public Law in 1st year and is due to lecture me again after xmas! I cant wait to talk to her about this! Via FG website
Browne welcomes announcement of Pre-nup Study Group
Fine Gael Carlow/Kilkenny General Election Candidate, Senator Fergal Browne, has welcomed the announcement of the membership and terms of reference of a study group to examine the area of pre-nuptial agreements.
‘I am pleased to welcome the Justice Minister’s timely response to my call for an examination of the legal status of pre-nups. I stressed the importance of clarifying this legal ‘grey area’ when I put forward a motion on the subject before Seanad Éireann in October. The appointment of the study group is a welcome development especially as there are more and more people marrying later in life and more people re-marrying. It is important that the current legal status of pre-nuptials is clarified and that the effects of their possible introduction are studied.
‘I welcome the appointment of Senior Counsel, Ms Inge Clissman, as the chair of the study group and I look forward to its report which is due for submission to the Tánaiste by the end of March 2007.
‘I would encourage all people who have an interest in the area to make submissions to the study group and I look forward with interest to the publication of the group’s recommendations.’