Boris is Mayor!

I am delighted! This tops off an excellent Local Election cycle for the Conservatives. Boris won with 1,168,738 first and second preference votes, compared with Mr Livingstone’s 1,028,966 on a record turnout of 45%.

Also all the council results are in now. The Conservtaives have gained 12 councils and 256 councillors. Labour lost 9 councils and 331 councillors. The Liberal Demorcrats held there own and gained 1 council and 31 councillors. Plaid Cymru lost control of its only council but gained 33 councillors.

On the London Assemby, the Conservatives lost 1 Constituency AM to Labour but gained 3 on the List Vote. Giving them 11 seats, Labour are on 8, LD 3, Greens 2 and BNP 1.

The BNP made a few gains this election. They surpassed the 5% threshold in London to get 1 list seat, they also gained 10 councillors to give them 37 in total. The BNP are an issue not just for Labour and the Conservatives but all mainstream parties. They need to be watched closely. I dont see them winning seats at the Next General Election but thay could come 2nd or 3rd in a few seats.

So YouGov got it right, as did ConservativeHome and the London Standard who all called it for Boris.

So my predictions:

* Boris will win the London Mayoralty
Wooo! Yup

* Conservatives will win the highest vote share nationally but will lose Coventry and gain Reading.
Yes, Yes, No. Reading did go to NOC from Labour control

* Labour will come second nationally but do better in Northern England.
Nope, they came third, did slightly better in the North but gained control of Slough in south. They were decimated in Wales which I did not see happening.

* LibDems will lose Loverpool but stay in third with a net loss of seats.
Lib Dems cam 2nd and had a net gain of seats. They technically lost Liverpool for all of 10 mins, stupid defections

On to the BBC coverage, while the David Dimbleby and the Bloggers bit was great, Jeremy Vine was useless. It was the wee early hours of the morning, only people interested in elections would stay up that late. No need for dumbing down. Its a pity they felt the need to do that.

I also discovered a a lovely bit of software during the elction that was used by ConservativeHome, Guido and Slugger O’Toole. Its called Cover it live. Its free and I will be using it during the Eurovison Semi’s and Final so stay tuned

Stupid Defections!

Well it seams I actually got the Liverpool prediction Wrong! All because of a defection!!!!

From the BBC

The Lib Dems have retained control after all – after looking like they were about to lose their grip on power there after a decade. They have lost three seats while Labour gained three, but at the last minute the Lib Dems were joined by Independent Labour councillor Nadia Stewart, therefore restoring its overall majority in the city council by a margin of 46-44.

Thanks to a POLUK player for bringing it to my attention!

Not a good night, A Great Night!!!

Welcome anyone coming over from the The Political Gay Blog on Gaycork!

Well its been a dismal night for Labour. Labour have had the worst result since the 1960’s! They came third to the Lib Dems again! While on the other hand its been a fantastic night for the Conservatives! The share of the vote according to the BBC is Conservatives 44%, Liberal Democrats 25% and Labour 24%. For fun I put those into Electoral Calculus and I got the following: Con 399, Lab 155, LD 68. Thats a Con Majority of 148!

So an update on my predictions

* Boris will win the London Mayoralty
No results couting starting later today

* Conservatives will win the highest vote share nationally but will lose Coventry and gain Reading.
Conservatives have lost Coventry to NOC, no results yet from Reading and the Conservtaives have gotten the highest vote share

* Labour will come second nationally but do better in Northern England.
Wrong on the first, debatable on the second, they came third in the national vote, but are just clinging on in the North

* LibDems will lose Loverpool but stay in third with a net loss of seats.
The LibDems have lost Liverpool to NOC and they came second overall!

The results so far 09:00 CET (08:00GMT) GAINS and LOSES Only
Con Gains
Basingstoke & Deane from NOC. Cons gain 5 seats from LD (2), Lab (2) and Other (1)
Bury from NOC. Cons gain 3 seats from Lab and the LD’s also take 1 from Lab.
Elmbridge from NOC. Cons gain 4 seats at the expense of Residents Association (3) and LD’s 1
Harlow from NOC. Cons gain 5 seats from Lab (4) and Others (1)
Maidstone from NOC. Cons gain 2 seats while Lab lose 2 and Lib Dems also lose 1. Others gaining 1 here
Nuneaton & Bedworth from Lab! Cons gain 4 seats while Labour lose 6. BNP get 2 seats here
Southampton from NOC. Cons gain 8 seats with Lab (4) LD’s (3) and Others (1) losing out. Interestingly colleagues from PolUK both 18 have won seats on Southampton Council! Well done Ben and Paul!
Vale Of Glamorgan from NOC. No details on BBC Website, but are calling it Con, Sky are saying reults pending.
West Lindsey from LD. Cons gain 4 seats from LD.
Wyre Forest from NOC. Cons gain 4 from Lab (2) Liberals, not LD’s (1) and others (1)

Con Loses
Coventry to NOC, as predicted. Cons lost 1 seat to Lab
Colchester to NOC. Cons lose 5 seats with the LD’s picking up 4 and Lab 1.

Liberal Democrats Gains
Kingston-Upon-Hull from NOC. LD’s gain 5 from Others (4) and Labour (1)
St Albans from NOC. LDs gain 1 and the Cons gain 3. Lab lose 3 and others lose 1

LD Loses
Liverpool to NOC. LDs lose 3 seats and the Liberals lose 1 seat. Greens pick up 1 and Labour pick up 3.
Pendle to NOC. LDs lose 8 seats with Lab (4), Cons (2), BNP (1) and others (1) gaining.

Labour Gains
Durham. This is one of the new unitary authoritys. Results: Lab 67, LD 27, Con 10, Others 22

Labour Loses
Blaenau Gwent to NOC. Lab lose 8 seats to others.
Flintshire to NOC. Lab loses 13 seats to Others (7), Con (5) and LD (1)
Hartlepool to NOC. Lab and LD lose 1 seat apiece which are picked up by Cons and UKIP
Merthyr Tydfil to NOC. Lab loses 9 seats with the LD picking up 6 and 3.
Torfaen to NOC. Lab down 16 seats. Others gain 12 and Cons 4.

The headline figures:
Con 45 +8
Lab 14 -6
LD 6 -1
NOC 36 -1

Conservative 1977 (+147)
Labour 1573 (-162)
Liberal Democrats 1086 (+9)
Plaid Cymru 43 (+8)
Residents Association 31 (-12)
Green 23 (+3)
Liberals 16 (-2)
BNP 11 (+8)
Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern 10 (NC)
UKIP 4 (+2)
Respect 4 (+1)
Socialist Alternative 2 (NC)
Others 360 (-2)

Some gain by the BNP and UKIP but massive losses by Lab. Before results came in, I predicted (via comment) on ConservativeHome that Cons would gain 180 (well on track and Lab would lose 120 (way off track!).

Is it time for Brown to go?

UK Local Elections Predictions

I’m making the following Predictions. I wonder will I be right?

* Boris will win the London Mayoralty
* Conservatives will win the highest vote share nationally but will lose Coventry and gain Reading.
* Labour will come second nationally but do better in Northern England.
* LibDems will lose Loverpool but stay in third with a net loss of seats.

It will be a long night for me so I might not get around to blogging tomorrow, but we will see. I may just end up drinking coffee straight from the machine or something!

London Mayoral Election: The Candidates

I mentioned before that I was going to do this, so I am finally getting around to it! I watched Labours Party Election Broadcast on BBC London, this evening and that reminded me to do this post! I will not be mentioning (apart from in passing) the Assembly Elections, you can look that up yourselves!

First a note on the Electoral System. The System used for the London Mayoral elections (All Mayoral elections in the UK I beleive) is via the Alternative Vote System. This is when no candidate recieves over 50% of the vote, all candidates are eliminated except the top two. Then the second preferences are counted. Who ever has the majority after the second count is elected.

Lets start with the Incumbent:

Ken Livingstone (Labour)

In the Red Corner, Ken is out for relection. He was first elected in 2000 and re-elected in 2004. After a bust up with Labour before the 2000 election hes back as a Labour candidate this year. Ken has been in office since this post was created so has made it his own. People will have a hard time imagining someone else there. What are Kens Commitments if relected:

* Continue investing to transform London’s transport system – continue improving bus services, modernise the Tube, build Crossrail and improve London rail services through London Overground to raise service and safety standards, while holding down fares

* Continue the six per cent reduction in crime each year – add a further 1,000 police over the next year to London’s existing record police numbers and maintain a dedicated police team in every neighbourhood

*Safeguard the policy that 50 per cent of new homes should be cheaper homes to buy and homes at affordable rents; build a minimum fifty thousand new affordable homes in the next three years

* Introduce 24 hour operation of the Freedom Pass – giving older and disabled Londoners free travel before 9am and throughout the day

* Extend the student travel discount to Oyster One Day Travelcards; maintain free travel for under-18s on the buses

* A £25 a day charge for high carbon-emitting gas guzzlers to enter the central London congestion zone and no charge for the greenest cars, with a London-wide Low Emission Zone to keep the worst polluting lorries out of London

* Maintain good community relations – continue to reduce racist attacks, down more than fifty per cent over eight years

*Youth centres for our young people – a £78m programme to set up youth centres and improve youth services throughout London to provide safe facilities outside school hours

Sound good and are catchy populist vote getters, Crime, Travel etc. Ken has a record of acheivments though. The London Olympics in 2012, the Congestion Charge, Pushing CrossRail among others, but lately hes not doing too well with acusations of improper conduct and the who Lee Jasper thing. Accoding to the latest YouGov poll for the Evening Standard he is on 36%. In the second round he is on 44%.

Link: Ken Livingston campiagn website

The Challenger!

Boris Johnson (Conservative)

In the Blue Corner, Blonde Boris is out for Election! Impartiality goes slightly out the window as I am a Conservative Supporter so will try not to step beyond whats there! Boris is currently MP for Henley and has been in the Conservative Shadow Cabinet as Shadow Minister for the Arts and Shadow Minister of Higher Education.

What are Boris’s Commitments?
That part of the website dosent lend itself easy to synopsis so heres a sample, one from each heading.

* Crime and Safety: We have to work with the police and communities to prevent young Londoners becoming victims of gang violence

* Transport: The bendy bus is unsuitable for London’s streets, they are twice as dangerous as non-articulated buses and have almost three times the rate of fare evasion. I will phase out bendy buses and run a new competition to find a 21st century Routemaster that has full disabled access, runs on clean fuel and has conductors.

* Environment: I will support the Low Emission Zone to improve air quality.

* Housing: We must develop more family-sized homes with gardens, and we need to give more Londoners the chance to own their family home.

Boris seams to be leading in most polls. In todays YouGov poll for the Evening Standard Boris is on 49%, 13 ahead of Ken. In the second round Boris on 56% which means he will have to work on getting those transfers.

Link: Back Boris Johnson

The Also-ran?

Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrat)

Brian Paddick served in the London Met for over 30 years so should make a good candidate for Mayor. Unfortunately as the LibDem candidate, he is back in third place in the polling.

What are Brians Commitments for London?

* As Mayor, Brian plans to chair the Metropolitan Police Authority to hold the Metropolitan Police Service to account for its performance in reducing crime. He’s pledged to cut crime in London by 5% every year during his first term.

* Brian will improve London’s overcrowded public transport and increase the reliability of Tube and bus services.

He’ll review how the Tube is managed, following the collapse of Metronet and Labour’s failed PPP project, and allow unlimited changes of bus within an hour for the price of one journey on an Oyster card.

Brian has launched a London-wide rail survey to give rail users a chance to have their say on what needs to be done to improve the system.

* Brian would use money currently spent on temporary accommodation to build new permanent social housing. He would bring unoccupied properties into use and take over redundant land to create more housing without the need to build on London’s precious green spaces.

* Brian will keep the Mayor’s contribution to the council tax down by cutting waste at City Hall to get better value for taxpayers’ money. Ken Livingstone has increased his precept by over 150% since he became Mayor, while spending more on press officers than the Prime Minister.

In the YouGov poll for the Evening Standard Paddick is polling at 10%. The LibDems need to get the led out.

Link: Brian Paddick Campaign Website

The others

A quick run down of the other Mayoral Candidates.

* Richard Barnbrook (BNP)

His concerns are “crime, housing and transport are among the main ones, and these are all aggravated by continual and uncontrolled mass-immigration.”

Link: BNP London

* Gerard Batten MEP (UK Independence Party)

His Key Policy Summary:
* Abolish the London Assembly and replace it with a no-cost Greater London Council. Hold referenda on key issues.
* Crack down on crime to ensure the innocent are protected and the guilty are punished .
* Abolish the Congestion Charge and Emission Charging.
* Keep Council Tax down and give Londoners value for money.
* Review Business Rates. Give businesses a vote in local elections.
* UKIP policy is a freeze on immigration. London homes for Londoners on the housing lists and not newcomers
* Prepare London for the challenges of climate change without punitive “green taxes”.
* Cap the costs of the Olympic Games.

Link: Batten 4 Mayor

* Siân Berry (Green Party)

Her key policies are:
* Free house insulation
* Cutting Tube & Bus Fares
* Affordable housing
* A London living wage
* Stoping airport expansion
* Renewable energy loans

Link: Sian Berry

* Alan Craig (Christian Peoples Alliance and Christian Party)

His policies are:
* Back families and marriage
* Reject the Olympics Mega Mosque
* More affordable homes
* End the culture of youth violence
* Tackle inequality with more jobs

Link: The Christian Choice

* Lindsey German (Left List)
Policy Page its too long to shorten down.

Link: Lindsey 4 London

* Winston McKenzie (Independent)

His policies are in Rhyme I hate to ruin it for you. Read it yourself….

Link: McKenzie for Mayor

* Matt O’Connor (English Democrats)

His pledges:

* Defending Liberty, Privacy & Democracy:
* Protecting Londoners
* Strengthening Families
* Repairing Communities

Link: English Democrats

There you have 10 candidates but its really between two of them. The transfers will decide it though so watch who the others endorse. I know the Greens have endorsed Ken, and the BNP, Boris (not really a vote getter!). Anyone know others?

London Elects
BBC London Election Page
Boris’s lead grows to 13 points UK Polling Report

Who should you vote for in… London?

I will be blogging soon about the London Mayoral and Assembly Elections as I am always watching BBC and reading certain blogs that are always on about! But before I do I found this on Ian Dale’s Diary today, its an excllent tool to see who you should vote for in the Mayoral Elections.

My Results are as follows:

Alan Craig (Christian Peoples Alliance / Christian Party)
Matt O’Connor (English Democrats)
Boris Johnson (Conservatives)
Richard Barnbrook (BNP)
Winston Mckenzie
Siân Berry (Green Party)
Gerrard Batten (UKIP)
Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrats)
Lindsey German (Left List)
Ken Livingstone (Labour)

Good to see Red Ken at the end, but I never thought I’d be supporting the Christian Party! 😀

In the London Assembly race I came out with the following

Abolish the Congestion Charge
The Christian Choice
One London (Leader Damian Hockney)
Conservative Party
English Democrats
Green Party
British National Party
Liberal Democrats
Unity for Peace and Socialism
UK Independence Party
Left List
Respect (George Galloway)
The Labour Party

Its strange to see Abolish the Congestion Charge at the top as I think the congestion charge should stay. Even when I changed my weighting on it, they stayed number one…. Strange one…

Have a go yourself! Vote Match