No2AV supporters trying to confuse people

I was doing my usual perusal of Guido Fawke’s blog this morning. This is a blog I normally find interesting and informative but as the Alternative Vote (AV) referendum campaign continues it seems to be peddling more lies about AV and STV (the PR varient used in Ireland). To try and show AV as a confusing system he posted this picture to try and show how confusing it is.

Now that picture above would be ok if it showed the actual results. But it dosen’t. Its the transfer analysis from the Dublin Central By-Election in 2009 which is on Elections Ireland. Not many people look at the page apart from Politics heads like me. The actual results of that election was

The full results can be viewed on the Elections Ireland page. Its fairly obvious from that picture who won the election, even from the first count. It really shows the desperation of those on the No side when they are peddling myths on how confusing AV (and by extension STV) are when in reality they are not.

Heres hoping the Yes Side will win.

UK Politics Just Got More Interesting

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown captured d...
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People often wonder why I show interest in UK Politics. I find it really interesting and absorbing. The following letter from two fromer Ministers really sums up why I find it more interesting!

Dear Colleague,

As we move towards a General Election it remains the case that the Parliamentary Labour Party is deeply divided over the question of the leadership. Many colleagues have expressed their frustration at the way in which this question is affecting our political performance. We have therefore come to the conclusion that the only way to resolve this issue would be to allow every member to express their view in a secret ballot.

This could be done quickly and with minimum disruption to the work of MPs and the Government. Whatever the outcome the whole of the party could then go forward, knowing that this matter had been sorted out once and for all.

Strong supporters of the Prime Minister should have no difficulty in backing this approach. There is a risk otherwise that the persistent background briefing and grumbling could continue up to and possibly through the election campaign, affecting our ability to concentrate all of our energies on getting our real message across.

Equally those who want change, should they lose such a vote, would be expected by the majority of the PLP to devote all of their efforts to winning the election. The implications of such a vote would be clear – everyone would be bound to support the result.

This is a clear opportunity to finally lay this matter to rest. The continued speculation and uncertainty is allowing our opponents to portray us as dispirited and disunited. It is damaging our ability to set out our strong case to the electorate. It is giving our political opponents an easy target.

In what will inevitably be a difficult and demanding election campaign, we must have a determined and united parliamentary party. It is our job to lead the fight against our political opponents. We can only do that if we resolve these distractions. We hope that you will support this proposal.

Yours fraternally,

Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt

Text of letter from Sky News

With an election coming up in May, this has serious ramifications for the Labour Party. Will Gordon Brown stay or go? Will the ballot go ahead??? Its all very interesting! I will be watching it closely!

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All Wales Convention – Time for the next step?

I am currently on holidays from work so bored at home today so was trawling the internet when I came across this website for the All Wales Convention. While not a great website at the moment there is a lot of potential there. Also the idea of extending the powers of the Welsh Assembly is being discussed a lot with the BBC reporting on a poll which shows 50% of Labour voters wanting more powers for the Assembly, which is also favoured by Liberal Democrat voters and Plaid Cymru voters. Only Conservative voters come out against giving the Assembly more powers.

There is a group all ready set-up since last month calling themselves “True Wales” to oppose any further devolution to the Welsh Assembly (BBC Report). It will be an interesting website and story to follow.

More bad news for Brown?

And also maybe bad news for the Treaty of Lisbon. ConservativeHome is reporting that Stuart Wheeler has gotten the Green Light for a judicial review on the UK Governments refusal to hold a Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

This will be an interesting case if it succeeds or fails. ConservativeHome have the background to the case here

UPDATE: Thanks to a commenter on Conservativehome I have got confirmation from Stuarts Website

2 May 10:00 a.m. – I am delighted to say that in his judgement delivered at the High Court this morning Mr Justice Owen decided that permission to apply for judicial review would be granted to me. In other words the result of the hearing last week is that we won. I expect to put more information on this website shortly.

Hasnt hit the main stream media yet!

Not a good night, A Great Night!!!

Welcome anyone coming over from the The Political Gay Blog on Gaycork!

Well its been a dismal night for Labour. Labour have had the worst result since the 1960’s! They came third to the Lib Dems again! While on the other hand its been a fantastic night for the Conservatives! The share of the vote according to the BBC is Conservatives 44%, Liberal Democrats 25% and Labour 24%. For fun I put those into Electoral Calculus and I got the following: Con 399, Lab 155, LD 68. Thats a Con Majority of 148!

So an update on my predictions

* Boris will win the London Mayoralty
No results couting starting later today

* Conservatives will win the highest vote share nationally but will lose Coventry and gain Reading.
Conservatives have lost Coventry to NOC, no results yet from Reading and the Conservtaives have gotten the highest vote share

* Labour will come second nationally but do better in Northern England.
Wrong on the first, debatable on the second, they came third in the national vote, but are just clinging on in the North

* LibDems will lose Loverpool but stay in third with a net loss of seats.
The LibDems have lost Liverpool to NOC and they came second overall!

The results so far 09:00 CET (08:00GMT) GAINS and LOSES Only
Con Gains
Basingstoke & Deane from NOC. Cons gain 5 seats from LD (2), Lab (2) and Other (1)
Bury from NOC. Cons gain 3 seats from Lab and the LD’s also take 1 from Lab.
Elmbridge from NOC. Cons gain 4 seats at the expense of Residents Association (3) and LD’s 1
Harlow from NOC. Cons gain 5 seats from Lab (4) and Others (1)
Maidstone from NOC. Cons gain 2 seats while Lab lose 2 and Lib Dems also lose 1. Others gaining 1 here
Nuneaton & Bedworth from Lab! Cons gain 4 seats while Labour lose 6. BNP get 2 seats here
Southampton from NOC. Cons gain 8 seats with Lab (4) LD’s (3) and Others (1) losing out. Interestingly colleagues from PolUK both 18 have won seats on Southampton Council! Well done Ben and Paul!
Vale Of Glamorgan from NOC. No details on BBC Website, but are calling it Con, Sky are saying reults pending.
West Lindsey from LD. Cons gain 4 seats from LD.
Wyre Forest from NOC. Cons gain 4 from Lab (2) Liberals, not LD’s (1) and others (1)

Con Loses
Coventry to NOC, as predicted. Cons lost 1 seat to Lab
Colchester to NOC. Cons lose 5 seats with the LD’s picking up 4 and Lab 1.

Liberal Democrats Gains
Kingston-Upon-Hull from NOC. LD’s gain 5 from Others (4) and Labour (1)
St Albans from NOC. LDs gain 1 and the Cons gain 3. Lab lose 3 and others lose 1

LD Loses
Liverpool to NOC. LDs lose 3 seats and the Liberals lose 1 seat. Greens pick up 1 and Labour pick up 3.
Pendle to NOC. LDs lose 8 seats with Lab (4), Cons (2), BNP (1) and others (1) gaining.

Labour Gains
Durham. This is one of the new unitary authoritys. Results: Lab 67, LD 27, Con 10, Others 22

Labour Loses
Blaenau Gwent to NOC. Lab lose 8 seats to others.
Flintshire to NOC. Lab loses 13 seats to Others (7), Con (5) and LD (1)
Hartlepool to NOC. Lab and LD lose 1 seat apiece which are picked up by Cons and UKIP
Merthyr Tydfil to NOC. Lab loses 9 seats with the LD picking up 6 and 3.
Torfaen to NOC. Lab down 16 seats. Others gain 12 and Cons 4.

The headline figures:
Con 45 +8
Lab 14 -6
LD 6 -1
NOC 36 -1

Conservative 1977 (+147)
Labour 1573 (-162)
Liberal Democrats 1086 (+9)
Plaid Cymru 43 (+8)
Residents Association 31 (-12)
Green 23 (+3)
Liberals 16 (-2)
BNP 11 (+8)
Independent Kidderminster Hospital and Health Concern 10 (NC)
UKIP 4 (+2)
Respect 4 (+1)
Socialist Alternative 2 (NC)
Others 360 (-2)

Some gain by the BNP and UKIP but massive losses by Lab. Before results came in, I predicted (via comment) on ConservativeHome that Cons would gain 180 (well on track and Lab would lose 120 (way off track!).

Is it time for Brown to go?

A solution to the West Lothian Question?

Simon Heffer writing in today’s Telegraph has a very interesting article on Devolution and a solution to the West Lothian Question. I think it has merit, but as he says himself could cause the end of the union.

His idea is that the 529 MP’s representing English Constituencies would form an English Parliament. This is an interesting idea, and I think it should be looked into.

England is left behind with the devolution settlment and unless England is given a say soon, expect to see the rise of the English Democrats, unless the Tories can come up with a solution.

The Tories dont have a solution at the moment, if they can come up with one they will win even more seats in England and probably wont lose seats in Scotland or Wales where they are projected to win a few extra seats (fingers crossed)

BTW Happy St. Georges Day All!

Hattip: Iain Dale

Intersting Project from the UK House of Lords


An interesting initiative from the House of Lords, in association with the Hansard Society, Lords of the Blog, is a multi-authored blog from nine members of the House of Lords, and which has the potential to be very useful.

It is a very interesting blog with a member from the Labour benches, Conservative benches and Crossbenchers (the Convenor of all people!) as well as 6 other independent Lords. It is an interesting read to see what goes on in the upper house of the UK.

Sould Brown have called an Election and the Future of the Lib Dems

Wow, two days of blog posts, I’m back as a serious blogger!!! 😀

But anyway back to the title. Gordon Brown, has said ‘no’ to an election. Was that a good decision?

Due to the comments of the ‘young turks’, Balls et al, saying Labour where on a election footing and that. This draw back from the brink could have long term damage for Brown and Labour in general as it did for O’Callaghan. The Tories will definitely gain from this as they said ‘Bring it on’. David Cameron is on the up and up.

Now if an election had been called, it would not have benefited the Lib Dems, as they are being squeezed by the two major parties and to top it off, they have gotten rid of their leader after 18 months!!! Sir Ming was an excellent leader for the Lib Dems, and its internal bickering like this that turn people off the Lib Dems. I myself am thinking of switching to the Tories. Then again I’m not an dedicated Lib Dem supporter, but I thought they were fresh and interesting compared to Labour and the Tories. But DC has changed the Conservative Party, it is now fresh and interesting, and is certainly winning people over no matter what the polls say.

At the end of the Day the ‘honeymoon’ is over for Brown, he needs to set out a good set of proposals in the Queens Speech at the State Opening of Parliament on the 6th of November. Its a Tuesday so hopefully I will be watching it and will blog about it.

Lib Dems want Referendum on EU

Okay this is a strange one. From a party thats normally very pro-Europe. The Lib Dems are now calling for a Referendum on British Membership of the EU! I know they wanted a referendum on the constitutional treaty, but not the current reform treaty so where does this come from?

Ming had this to say “It is time to end the shadow boxing on Europe and to have an honest debate on the future of Europe.”

Now for me, a party that’s pro-europe holding a referendum on British membership of the EU is a bit iffy as they leave themsleves wide open to loosing pro-europe support (the majority of their voters IMO) So they might gain from the Tories on this issue but they cant beat a Euro-sceptic party on this.

The Lib Dem Conference starts this weekend in Brighton. Will post any interesting speeches.

Source: The Guardian

Pol Sims

Well its official I am addicted to Political Sims, so I’m going to recommend two of them here. (They are the only two I play).

The first is Politics UK which I blogged about before. This is an excellent game. Though I’ve only been playing not even a month, I’m now the Conservative Shadow Secretary of State for Health and Shadow Minister for Local Government and English Regions. This game is great fun, you get to write PR’s, policy and legislation and the Players are great fun. Sign up if you want. If you do sign up over this blog please PM me on it.

Now the other game is new, set up by a few of the players on PolUK, its called Politics 1900. Its set in 1900 (shock) so its great fun, as there is loads of material available. In this one I play William McGrath the Deputy Leader of the Irish Parliamentary Party. This is an excellent game for those interested in Politics at the turn of the century. You can also play Lords in this game. Again if you sign up PM me

Hopefully I’ll bolg more often, cause Im a bad blogger I know….