Northern Ireland Assembly Election 2011

Northern Ireland Assembly logo
Image via Wikipedia

This year the people of Northern Ireland will go to the polls to elect 108 MLA’s to the Northern Ireland Assembly on May 5th.

The current standings of the parties are as follows:

  • Democratic Unionist Party: 36
  • Sinn Fein: 27
  • Ulster Unionist Party: 18
  • Social Democratic and Labour Party: 16
  • Alliance Party: 7
  • Green Party: 1
  • Independents: 5

The campaign is well under way since the Assembly was dissolved on 24th of March and a number of issues have been raised.

Issues raised have been health, education, policing, and the possibility of a Sinn Fein First Minister. This may be seen as scaremongering, but it is a possibility.

I will be following the election as it progresses. Below is some of the Party Election Broadcast that have been shown.

DUP

[yframe url=’http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dn-QDLA0DzU’]

Sinn Fein

[yframe url=’http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-1zEMuMOXg’]

UUP

[yframe url=’http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4lg_yR5Tvw’]

SDLP

[yframe url=’http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJ3Mm-8c2Ag’]

Alliance

[yframe url=’http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMPsxq_7AzE’]

Green Party

[yframe url=’http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QA7faRfVhjk’]

UKIP

[yframe url=’http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKHVo8DNU3g’]

BNP

[yframe url=’http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dasfQyGSBkY’]

Have I missed any? Let me know.

 

UK: Will there be a BNP breakthrough?

RIPLEY, UNITED KINGDOM - AUGUST 16:  British N...
Image by Getty Images via Daylife

There is a lot of talk in the UK at the moment of the possibility of a BNP breakthrough at the European Elections like UKIP last time out. Two recent surveys don’t point that way.

Two surveys have the BNP polling at about the 4% mark. According to the YouGov poll in the Sunday Times the BNP are polling at 4% (nc) and according to Predict 09 it is polling at 4.4% (-0.5% on 2004). According to these polls the BNP will not pick up any seats in the European Election. In fac both polls show that UKIP are down on their 2004 result of 16.1%. YouGov have them on 7% and Predict 09 have them on 7% also. Meaning that UKIP could loose 8 seats.

Whether of not that will happen is hard to tell as it hard to judge support for smaller parties in the UK. Also the electoral system is different for the European Elections in the UK (outside of Northern Ireland which uses STV). They use a List PR system using the D’Hondt method. Im not sure if there will be a large swing to the BNP, but then again the campaign has only truely begun now!

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