UK Election Predictions

Propaganda
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So tomorrow will see the polls opening for the UK General Election. I have been following the campaigns in my spare time but not really blogging about it. Mainly as I didn’t know where I stood. I do now.

I am hoping for a Liberal Democrat surge tomorrow.

But enough of who I want to do well, on to some predictions. Some of these are random, others are obvious. I will be up late into the night on Thursday watching the results on the telly and if anything interesting happens, it will be blogged about!

So, on to the predictons!

Vote Share

The Conservatives will win the most votes, followed by the Liberal Democrats. Labour will come third.

Seats

Conservaties will have about 270, Labour, 260, Liberal Democrats 90.

Other Parties

Greens will win their first seat. My money is on Brighton Pavillion.

BNP will not win a seat.

UKIP will win two seats. Buckingham and one other

SNP will increase their seats by 2

PC will also increase their seats by 2

Northern Ireland is too close to call for me.

They are my predictions. A hung parliament is in the offing. Have you got any predictions?

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Lisbon Round Up: Gen Yes, UKIP and Abortion

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So last night I attended the Generation Yes Event in Cork on Lisbon in Light of the Guarantees. It was a really interesting event and their will be videos, pictures and audio going up on the Generation Yes Website in the next few days. I will be getting involved in Generation Yes in Cork, so I’ll keep ye informed of goings on.

Without Libertas this time round, there is talk that the UK Independence Party might fill that role. According to Michael Heavers blog

It looks like Ireland’s only semi-high profile “no” campaign will be a newly-elected Socialist MEP. But he only has very niche appeal to the electorate at large. And so it appears that UKIP will once again be left to try and do what it can to deliver a blow to those who wish to create a federal Europe.

He does forget about Coir who were quite good at getting a few points across that get coming up on the canvass (eg Abortion and God). He goes on to point out that it would be wrong for UKIP MEPs to come here and campaign,

It wouldn’t be very wise for British MEPs to charge over to Ireland telling them what to do. We certainly wouldnt’t like it if it was the other way round.

I agree with him on that. UKIP’s role will be on the Guarantees.

Where UKIP can and I believe will play a part, is in scrutinising the legitimacy of the so-called “guarantees” that the EU have granted Ireland ahead of a second referendum.

No harm in them checking that out for us. Hopefully its something that will inform the debate here.

This week saw Joe Higgins launch his No Campaign for the treaty. As Micheal earlier pointed out, Joe is going to be the most high profile campiagner for the No side. Im sure he will be joined by Patricia McKenna and a few other councillors from People Before Profit and independents.

Moving on from that, the abortion issue isnt going anywhere fast, and Jim Murray on blogactiv has a good response to that.

Also on blogactiv Gary Fingan blogs about how the bookies are looking at the referendum.

Irish bookmakers are betting the Lisbon Treaty will win between 60% and 65% of the vote in October

He does point out that the bookies got it wrong last time and will be watching it closely this time. Its a good post and those interested in a bit of gambling on politics might get a few tips from it.

Finally the Green Party will decide how it will act in the upcoming Lisbon Referendum as well as discussing the review of the Program for Government. They need 2/3 of those attending to back the treaty for the party to take a line on it and with McKenna gone, the no side within the party has lost its leader. It will be an interesting meeting.

Thats all I have at the moment. If you see anything Lisbon related, do send it on to me by leaving a comment or emailing stephen[AT]stephenspillane[dot]com. Also you can send me links via twitter

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UK: Will there be a BNP breakthrough?

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There is a lot of talk in the UK at the moment of the possibility of a BNP breakthrough at the European Elections like UKIP last time out. Two recent surveys don’t point that way.

Two surveys have the BNP polling at about the 4% mark. According to the YouGov poll in the Sunday Times the BNP are polling at 4% (nc) and according to Predict 09 it is polling at 4.4% (-0.5% on 2004). According to these polls the BNP will not pick up any seats in the European Election. In fac both polls show that UKIP are down on their 2004 result of 16.1%. YouGov have them on 7% and Predict 09 have them on 7% also. Meaning that UKIP could loose 8 seats.

Whether of not that will happen is hard to tell as it hard to judge support for smaller parties in the UK. Also the electoral system is different for the European Elections in the UK (outside of Northern Ireland which uses STV). They use a List PR system using the D’Hondt method. Im not sure if there will be a large swing to the BNP, but then again the campaign has only truely begun now!

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Libertas – Nil Points?

I blogged yesterday about Predict 09‘s Irish Predictions, but tonight while looking through the country analysis I noticed something. Libertas will not win any seats in the European Parliament. In fact there is only vote share predicted for Ireland and Poland. In Ireland it is predicted at 7% and in Poland its predicted for 0% (+ the margin of error which is 4%). It is not predicted to win seats in Ireland or Poland. Let alone anywhere else!

Will this happen? I don’t know. Its highly unlikely that Libertas will pick up seats in Ireland (unless Sinnott joins them after the election), but they could pick up seats in the United Kingdom, where Labour and UKIP are predicted to be down.

Interesting times ahead for the Chairman.

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CandidateWatch: My First Question!

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So I finally asked my first question on CandidateWatch. I asked the following to Ireland South’s Independent MEP Kathy Sinnot:

Do you think that Ireland should withdraw from the European Union?

The reason I ask this is that you are sitting in a European Parliament group with UKIP who believe that the United Kingdom should leave the Union.

Ill post the response when I get it.

Incidently the first question asked to her is one I was going to ask, but a John Long beat me to it:

What is your position in relation to civil partnership and gay marriage for irish citizens?

You can see all the questions to Kathy, including mine here.

Now I need to think of more questions for the other candidates.

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I was going to vote for you but your a looooon

This year I was contemplating given Kathy Sinnott a preference in the European Elections this year (considering Fianna Fail are getting none) but I remembered why not when at work on Saturday I was reading an old copy of the Cork Independent (free sheet) and it had profiles on lots of the candidates in the Locals and Europeans. They asked them to list their priorites, on of Kathy’s was and I quote

Preventing the HSE from promoting Euthanasia in Cork University Hospital

Okay so firstly, what??? You can promote Euthanasia? I didn’t know that. Secondly people in CUH want you to get better not die (I hope).

Another thing that works against her in my opinion is that she is co-president of the Independence/Democracy group which is the group that UKIP is in. I certainly do not want to withdraw or diminish the EU in anyway so nope, no vote for Kathy.

The only reason I was going to vote for Kathy Sinnott was because, if you email her on any issue she gets back to you with her answer either with or against you. Unfortunately can’t get over her statements such as the one above to actually vote for her!

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